The upward trend of the AUD/CAD chart which steadily continued amid a decreasing of oil prices and other factors, is under the risk of being completed. A rising of oil prices and a strengthening of the USD allowed the Canadian currency to strengthen amid disappointing statistics on the economy of Australia. The support line has been broken and greatly displaced down. That is why now we can see that the downtrend is formed, though it's early to say whether the current upward trend is over - it can still be restored next week. The Australian currency may take again the initiative, considering that in the near future the market is not expecting any important data on the Canadian economy.
At the same time, next week we expect important information from China and New Zealand, which may impact the value of the Australian currency, as Australia is a leading trade partner of these two countries. Yesterday the AUD increased significantly during a single day - with 0.997 up to 1.008 CAD, thanks to the latest information about the economy of China, where in March exports grew 16.4% year-on-year and imports by 20%. In particular, imports from Australia grew by 74.8%. Something else that also positively impacted the strengthening of the Australian dollar are the strong statistics on the labour market - recent reports by the Australian Bureau of statistics show the employment change indicator was 60.9K, against the predicted three times less 20.
GBP/JPY Technical Outlook & the Golden Cross
For the fifth consecutive day the GBP/JPY currency pair has been in a downward direction movement which pushed the prices back from 137.77 to 135.57 (220 pips in five days). The pair is trading now at 135.80 and it's stable below the 50% Fibonacci from the upside wave from 124.81 to 148.47. It's expected that the pair's daily close will be below 50% and lead the pair to 61.8% levels.
For the coming weeks it's expected that the pair will rise after we saw the Golden Cross last month. This happened when the SMA 55, 100 and 200 cut across and the SMA 200 slope turned upside on the daily time frame. The Stochastic indicator gave us a buy signal when the two lines crossed and made the oversold process, but today we don't expect any large movement because due to the Easter holiday most of the banks are closed.
The Next Few Days
From this analysis of the daily chart we can sell the pair now from the current prices at 135.80 and keep our first target at 134.70 and the second one at the 61.8% at 133.80. However, if the pair makes a bullish price action candle on the H4 chart, we can buy it with large targets at 138.50 and 141.20.
We have to be careful in the upcoming days regarding hot news like Carney's speech on Thursday and the Retail Sales on Friday from the UK.
EUR/SGD: Review & Forecast
The rates of the EUR/SGD continue to be in the frames of the downward trend. It was expected that this week volatility on the market will decrease until the results of the elections in France become available, but yesterday the UK's Prime Minister Theresa May announced early parliamentary elections. The market reacted positively and the Pound strengthened, which had an impact on the value of the EUR.
The decision about early elections is perceived positively because it can remove the uncertainty on the question of Brexit. Results of the UK's elections will show surely if they move towards the exit from the EU or, in case of a victory for the opponents of Brexit, will finally drop this question. Thus, investors expect from the new Parliament a clear political and economic course.
The Singapore dollar was under significant pressure since yesterday. Stable macroeconomic statistics were unable to change anything amid significant political events, which directly affect the future of the EU.
At the moment the Stochastics and MACD oscillators are unanimous in the decision to open short deals. After a significant price hike after the aforementioned news, the rates may continue in the frames of the downtrend. Now the rates have consolidated and can go down, so in short-term trading the deals to SELL are the best solution. In medium-term trading it is better to wait a few days before the elections in France. Based on those results we can obtain an absolutely new value of the Euro in case of a victory for Marine Le Pen, otherwise it will strengthen for some time.
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12.30 pm - 2.00 pm: Lunch Break/Prayer
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4:30 pm - 5.00 pm: Speech by Vladimir Syrov, CEO of SuperForex
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NZD/JPY: short market review and forecast
The NZD/JPY rates is in the frames of rapid downward trend. However, the new Zealand dollar had stopped falling and consolidated in the range 76,0 - 76,76 JPY. Yesterday it's been received important statistics related with 2 currencies. Economic statistics from New Zealand, positively impacted the NZD. The consumer price index grew in 2.2% year on year, exceeding forecasts. It is also the highest annual growth rate since 2011. For the 1st quarter of the year the index grew in 1%, slightly exceeding forecasted 0.8% level. At the moment, that was enough to stabilize the exchange rate of the NZD. In a week, the market expects new data about trade balance of New Zealand that may affect the value of the NZD.
On the other hand, the trade balance of Japan, already known, and taking into account seasonal fluctuations, amounted to only 0.17 T, although it was expected that this indicator will be 3 times more, and will be at 0.61. That's disappointed investors, although overall the economy of Japan is at good level. Volume of exports and imports grew, and exceeded predicted forecasted values. This also becomes the main growth factor of the Japanese economy in the future. Investors expect growth by 1% in 2017.
At this moment, the oscillators MACD, Stochastics, the RSI are neutral. It should be noted that since April 10, we can see formation of the flat trend, thought at the moment, it is early to say about ending of the downtrend. There're no enough preconditions for that. You should pay attention to the points of entry 76.75 and 76.2 JPY. At the moment, upon medium-term trading, it is recommended to open the short deals on the trend.
How to Be a Successful Introducing Broker - Seminar in Jakarta
SuperForex would like to invite you to take part in an exclusive training event this Wednesday that will show you the tricks to making a successful career as an Introducing Broker.
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The training workshop will be led by our local representatives in Indonesia as well as the CEO of SuperForex, Mr. Vladimir Syrov. Refreshments will be provided. The time and address of the workshop are as follows:
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EUR/GBP/USD: More Elections - More Opportunities to Earn on Forex
Political elections or referendums in key countries can be considered a real gift for traders. Luckily, this year is full of such political events which give us the unique opportunity to receive great profit in just one day. One such example is predicting the outcomes of important elections.
Brexit and the presidential elections in the United States in 2016 were only the beginning. Of course, for many people the results of these political events came as a surprise, but their effect has exceeded all expectations. However, elections give us the opportunity not only to get profit based on the results, but also to be active during the election campaign because even preliminary polls influence the market and exchange rates.
Many traders prefer to wait out the unstable period, however, the elections in France prove that it's very easy to predict the outcome of the election, though the effect of price hikes can't be compared with any other hikes that you can see usually on the market. Bear in mind that this was is only the first round of elections. Just in two weeks we would witness round two. If the results from the elections are obvious, then the possible impact for the Euro is also easy to foresee, even without a deep knowledge of Forex and the basics of technical analysis.
Last week we also found out that we can expect one more important political event - parliamentary elections in Britain. This news affected the market and significantly raised the value of the GBP to long-forgotten levels. We can say that Theresa May and the whole of Great Britain gave us another opportunity to earn on the Forex market by predicting the outcome of these elections.
We want our traders to be able to take advantage of the many opportunities to get profit. We can certainly say that more elections means more opportunities to earn on Forex without putting a lot of effort or doing tons of research in advance. In the next few years we likely won't have this many political events and chances to make a profit so easily.
Take a chance while the market is still hot with the news of fresh elections! This is just the beginning and many important political events will be coming our way very soon.
This week the gold has been under the strong pressure of the Euro based on the results from the first round of elections in France. Investors have got some confidence in the future of the EU and the victory of the loyal-to-the-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron. The Euro has considerably strengthened against most currencies and investors became more active on the market towards risker, more profitable assets.
The only thing that hasn't allowed the gold to lose much in price is a slowdown in the US economy, an uncertainty in the Fed increasing the interest rate, as well as a lack of interest in a strong dollar from the government and the U.S President D. Trump. The rates continue in the frames of a downward trend, which is becoming more intense despite the fact that geopolitical tensions and uncertainty started to subside amid good news from the EU, and the situation with military conflicts which did not worsen.
It should be noted that despite the increased volume of gold mining by some mining companies, long-term forecasts say there might be an inrease in the yellow metal's value in the future. According to BMI research, by 2020 the price for gold will be $1500, but considering the probability of military conflicts and geopolitical tensions in the world, it can be sooner. On this basis, we can say that at this moment there are no preconditions for the end of the upward trend, which has lasted from the end of 2016, although the support line is now in danger to be shifted down.