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  • Dmitry.l's Avatar
    67 posts since Apr '17
    • GBP/JPY Technical Overview & H4 Chart

      The GBP/JPY pair has declined and has been making a down correction wave since May 10 after it reached its five-months' highest level at the resistance area 148.00. The currency pair is trading now at 142.65 to lose more than 540 pips.

      The GBP/JPY pair is trading inside a price channel which supports the resuming of the down direction but the prices are back on the rise today after it touched the 50% Fibonacci. The prices are moving in a tight area in the red box and we are waiting for the breaking up or down to enter the market again. The MACD indicator does not have a clear signal in this area and the SMA is still trading above the prices.

      The Next Few Days

      From this analysis of the H4 chart we can wait for the pair to break the red box. If it breaks above it we can buy the pair and keep our target at 144.20 at the highest limit of the channel. However, the expected scenario is that the pair will break the box down to reach the 61.8% and cover the gap from last April, so we can sell at 141.90 with targets at 140.60 and 139.70.

       

      We have to be careful in the upcoming days regarding hot news like PMIs data from the UK on Thursday, Friday and next Monday Japan posts key data for April's industrial production, household spending, retail sales and unemployment.

    • The Parisian Fallout

      To say that Donald Trump’s presidency has been a turbulent ride would be putting it mildly, it appears. From challenging the election results on Day 1, through the healthcare debacle, the appointment of poorly qualified candidates to posts of high responsibility, not fully thought-out bombings, disagreements with virtually all of the United States’ intelligence agencies, even leaking sensitive information to Russian officials in what John Oliver dubbed “Stupid Watergate” (which started the conversation about a possible impeachment), it appears that, impossibly, President Trump outdid himself this Thursday as he announced the United States will be withdrawing from the Paris agreement on climate change.

      What is the Paris Agreement?
      Simply put, the Paris accord is one of the few noble things humanity has done in recent years. It is a United Nations initiative under which 195 countries’ leaders gathered in Paris in December 2015 and agreed to fight pollution and other kinds of climate damage from 2020 onwards. The agreement itself is more of an act of good will - it does not force any given country to take fixed measures; each state retains its sovereignty and control over how they alleviate climate change. In other words, according to the Paris Agreement 195 countries agree that climate change is a serious problem and promised to start taking measures to do less damage in the future by adopting more sustainable policies.

      What was supposed to happen?
      It was expected that all 195 countries would ratify the agreement on June 1, 2017. However, the United States along with very few others went back on their word and decided to withdraw. According to President Trump, the deal is not “fair” to the United States and he wants to negotiate a better deal, a statement that struck many economists as odd, considering the Paris Agreement won’t force the US to do anything they don’t want to do. Even China whose heavily industrialized economy is arguably the largest polluter in the world supports this global effort. Guess who the second largest polluter is.

      Why might America feel that way?
      In all fairness, adapting environmentally friendly solutions is an expensive enterprise. Doing things in a way that is cleaner and safer takes more time and effort, adding to the production costs of most goods. That is the price to pay if we want the planet to have a future longer than 50 years. However, Trump feels that this won’t be fair to American businesses, which is why he decided to withdraw from the agreement.

      The Fallout
      In less than 24 hours it seems that Trump’s decision has invoked a tremendous amount of reactions from all over the world. Germany, France, and Italy outright refused to negotiate with the United States. The newly-elected President of France Macron issued a now-viral video statement once again inviting scientists and engineers to relocate to France where they are committed to work on climate control. 25 of America’s biggest companies including Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft sent an official letter to Trump warning him against a withdrawal. More backlash is still emerging from all around the world.

      The truth is that even if one shares Trump’s concern that local businesses could suffer from this international endeavor, he could actually hurt the American economy more by withdrawing. Trump might start a trade war, warns CNN.


  • Yuanju4's Avatar
    3 posts since Jun '17
  • Dmitry.l's Avatar
    67 posts since Apr '17
    • EUR/USD Technical Overview

       

      Today we would take a detailed look at the EUR/USD currency pair. Judging by its typical movement during the first halves of the previous years, we can say that the level of 0.9450 is an important mark to keep an eye on every time we see bearish movement. Generally, the pair is moving within a consolidation channel between 1.0500-1.1260. If it escapes below it, then 0.9450 becomes our key target in monthly terms.

      At the beginning of this year we saw a head and shoulders pattern replace the then-ruling bearish trend. This again was around the aforementioned level of 1.0500. At that moment investors and analysts were even talking about the euro and dollar achieving parity before the year is through; however, since then the EUR/USD picked itself up and started rising. We should now watch out for the levels at 1.1400 and 1.1520 which might make the pair rebound back down. If we see the pair moving between these two levels, we can open sell positions and prepare for further price drops, which are likely. Such deals should be set up with a stop-loss at 1.1550 or higher, and T/P levels at the supports of 1.1100 and 1.1020 below it.

      As of the publication of this article the EUR/USD is trading around 1.1250 and the technical indicators agree in recommending a sell course of action.


    • USD/JPY Technical Overview

      Today we would look at the USD/JPY pair where we expect some announcements that could increase volatility for the day.

      Currently the pair is flirting with levels around 109, but we do not expect it go beyond that. The long-term 50% Fibonacci level is located just above at 110; it holds much attraction for traders but if they become overly active around it, they will drive the prices down instead of up. That is why we predict the pair will be mostly bearish.

      We believe that 110.00 is a strong resistance for the pair and it most probably won’t be overcome. That is why we need to keep our eyes on the support levels at 109.74 and 109.52 for now. However, the USD/JPY is a pair prone to sudden changes - if for some reason it manages to rally above 110.00, then we can start buying it.

    • Britain Divided

      Amid economic reports, a diplomatic crisis in Qatar, an ECB meeting, and ex-FBI director James Comey’s testimony against Trump, this week has been packed with news that rattled investors’ world. However, we would be amiss if we don’t admit that perhaps the most important event this week were the early parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom held on June 8.

      Unlike most elections, the drama in the UK was not centered around who will win and who would lose. The Conservatives were expected to win the most seats in parliament in any event. Still, Theresa May’s government had been losing favor with the British people in recent weeks – much to the Prime Minister’s chagrin, as she called these early elections specifically so she could secure her party another term before the UK public is too disappointed in her cabinet.

      As it turns out, people were already disappointed. The Tories failed to win the majority of the votes required to form a government; the Labour party did surprisingly well, and a few smaller parties also won seats in Parliament. Nevertheless, the issue is that since no one gained a majority, the United Kingdom got itself a hung government.

      In the absence of a clear winner, British parties now have to enter into negotiations with one another in order to form a coalition. If this fails, the Tories or the Labour party might also try to run a government of the minority. Neither of these situations is ideal because both bring a lot of instability along – whether it’s internal among coalition members, or external in the form of a strong opposition in parliament.

      So, what does all of this mean for all of us? Essentially, the election results point to further turmoil in the United Kingdom. Parties will be making friends and enemies over the next week, any government that gets formed will likely be facing a short term in a tight spot as they try to negotiate a Brexit deal with the European Union, and we may even see new elections soon. This kind of political uncertainty always entails distrust from investors and lower currency confidence.

      The British pound has already become a victim of these elections. The currency dropped to a long-term low of $1.2632 early this morning; the euro also gained on the pound, additionally helped by the ECB announcement that higher growth is expected in Europe. Analysts expect the political chaos in the UK would likely drag the pound further down.

      We urge you to keep a close eye on the developments in the United Kingdom in the next few weeks. Times of high volatility often provide an opportunity for increased profit – and considering there is tons of fundamental data in the near future that can affect the markets, volatility is the current sentence for the British pound.

    • EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

      The EUR/SGD chart looks like it has two trends: on the one hand, the upward trend which was formed based on the period of political uncertainty in the EU continues. On the other hand, there are no preconditions for further growth. Thanks to the positive data on Singapore's economy, the SGD consolidated and has remained in the flat range with low volatility since May.

      Overall, this week is full of events which impact the rates of the leading currencies. At the moment the market is waiting for economic forecasts from the FOMC and the FED's decision whether to increase interest rates, which of course affects the USD value. As for the EUR and SGD, today the market received information about the volumes of industrial production in the Eurozone and data about the employment change in the European Union. Industrial production increased in April by 1.4% yoy, slightly exceeding forecasts. The indicator of employment change rose to 0.4%, also exceeding forecasts. On Thursday we also expect data on the trade balance in the Eurozone for April.

      As for the Singapore dollar, this week we received statistics about retail sales which did not allow the SGD to strengthen against the Euro. Still, the level achieved has been saved because, while the retail sales volume of 2.6% YoY is lower than expected, on a monthly basis it's at the acceptable level of +1.6%. On Friday we also also expect data about exports and the trade balance in Singapore for May. Thus we can expect an increase in the volatility for the EUR/SGD.

    • What’s New for the Yen


      While this week was abundant in financial reports that affected many important currencies, we decided to do something a bit different today and place the spotlight upon someone we haven’t paid due attention to before – the Japanese yen.

      Though we often tend to talk about the dollar, the euro, and the pound, the Japanese yen is actually pretty popular – after the USD and the EUR it is the most traded currency on the Forex market. The Japanese yen is also a popular reserve currency and in times of trouble for other major denominations the yen is considered a safe-haven.

      A strong yen and a somewhat stagnant economy were until recently troubling Japan. As is the case with reserve currencies, if they are high in value exports from the home country of the currency tend to become quite pricey. As part of his plan to revive Japan’s economy, prime minister Shinzo Abe launched an ambitious stimulus program in 2016. Abe committed around $46 billion to welfare, infrastructure, rebuilding severe earthquake-affected areas, and small and medium businesses help due to the Brexit fallout in Japan.

      The financial aid provided by the program is meant to boost the economy, increase consumer spending and inflation to a healthy 2%. It is not all that different from what the ECB has been doing across the European Union over the past few years.

      Nevertheless, there seems to have been a shift of trends around the globe lately. The Federal Reserve in the United States has been periodically increasing interest rates since 2016, with the most recent increase this Wednesday. Stable growth and positive economic statistics are also pressuring the European Central Bank to consider cutting its stimulus program short, though Draghi still remains strongly in support of its continued application.

      There was some expectation on the market that Japan might jump on the train towards higher rates. However, at its most recent report the BoJ confirmed it would keep rates as they currently are. This was a bit of a disappointment for investors and, as a result, the yen dropped to a two-week low at 111.380 versus the American dollar.

      It appears that Japan intends to keep benefiting from a weaker yen. Right now it is taking advantage of the fact that the USD is (despite some ups and downs) going strong. Still, some analysts speculate that the US economy is not as strong as it seems and the economic data from the US is merely lukewarm, rather than exciting. If the dollar hits hard times soon, the yen will likely suffer as well (because it would involuntarily increase in value).

      Overall, Japan seems cautiously optimistic about the future of its economy. The Bank of Japan is beginning to see moderate results from its policy and maintains that it would proceed with its stimulus package as planned. This is excellent news for traders, as now they know for sure that they should prepare for a lower yen in the months to come.

    • GBP/USD Technical Overview

      SuperForex Article Image

      Today we’d take a detailed look at the GBP/USD currency pair. Over the last few days the pair experienced some volatility as it broke below 1.2800 and went through a correction.

      The British pound sterling is suffering mainly due to the political tension in the United Kingdom - Theresa May’s failure to establish a majority in the recent parliamentary elections led to a general lack of clarity as to who the next PM would be. This is extremely inconvenient as the UK just began Brexit negotiations with the European Union yesterday. Today we’re also expecting a speech by the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney - this event would likely impact the pair.

      On the other hand, the American dollar rose a little bit after the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase rates last week, upsetting the GBP/USD rates further. Today the US would release its current account report, where investors are predicting a bigger deficit than before, but as usual, we should pay attention because any results that are surprising would make USD pairs volatile. There would also be a speech by Federal Reserve representative Stanley Fischer, which would again increase volatility in all likelihood.

      Overall, due to the uncertainty in the United Kingdom and the slight boost in the dollar from the past few days, we expect that the pound would continue dropping in value.



      On the daily chart we can see that the price cannot overcome the resistance at 1.2800 and remains below it. If it keeps staying below, we might see it drop down to the support at 1.2515. Unless the level of 1.2800 is broken, the GBP/USD pair would remain bearish.

    • Qatar in Crisis

      A few weeks back we introduced to you the complicated situation Qatar has found itself in. Back then it was a brand-new crisis, the scope of which was difficult to estimate yet. Now that a little bit of time has passed, we can look upon the matter with a bit more certainty. This is further facilitated by the fact that the finance minister of Qatar spoke to CNN Money this week, providing valuable insight into the inner workings of Qatar’s economy.
      First off, to quickly recap: several Arab countries, notably Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain cut all diplomatic relations with Qatar at the beginning of June 2017. The officially stated reason for this decision was that Qatar is supposedly financing terrorism and upsetting the Middle East. The veracity of these claims right now is not a concern for us, because we’re here to talk about markets.
      Qatar found itself in some trouble, because its land borders are all with countries that cut ties. This meant that the country could not receive supplies by land anymore, causing immediate chaos for ordinary citizens looking to buy groceries. It is not a very well-known fact, but Qatar imports most of its food (rather than produce it). Additionally, there is also the strain on Qatar’s economy caused by the fact that the country can no longer export to nearby markets.
      Qatar’s finance minister Ali Shareef Al Emadi admitted before CNN that one of the complications resulting from this situation could be a rising inflation rate in the country. However, for the most part he didn’t seem very phased about the crisis, because he believes Qatar’s economy is strong enough to weather this storm.
      One way Qatar can soften the blow is by using its large assets and securities. According to Al Emadi, Qatar has investments that amount to more than 250% of the country’s GDP, which is quite impressive. He also pointed out that trade with the countries imposing the blockade is a bit overrated, amounting to less than 10% of all exports – which can easily be relocated to a different market.
      While imports from the blockading countries are important to Qatar, they are still less than 15% of all imports and Qatar has already found other willing partners to supply its market. Qatar boasts several big ports and one of the world’s most impressive airports, so it is well-positioned to receive imports by way of sea or air. Al Emadi asserted that the current state of trade relations is good not only for maintaining a normal standard of living despite the crisis, but to also allow further economic growth for Qatar.
      The ministry of finance is working close with the Qatar Central Bank to ensure all business and banking activity proceeds as normal. All banks in Qatar are believed to have good liquidity and a solid supply of foreign exchange, so investment and trading are still steady.
      Even though news broke out this week that Qatar Airways might no longer be permitted to use the airspace of the blockading countries. Since the airline is one of the biggest in the world and is state-owned, it contributes to Qatar’s GDP considerably. However, Qatar has so far shown that it is quite capable of finding alternatives to every challenge posed by the the countries in conflict.
      Regardless of the finance minister’s optimism, The Qatari riyal has dropped in value compared to major currencies over the past weeks. However, the central bank hasn’t taken action yet.
      Is the situation really not that serious or is Qatar bluffing, feigning calm? We’d let you decide. Let us know what yo think in the comments!

       

  • Yuanju4's Avatar
    3 posts since Jun '17
    • The GBP/USD match developed a week ago's solid recuperation move from two-month lows and exchanged with positive inclination for the fifth back to back session

      The GBPUSD combine varies close to 1.2770 level now and still beneath it, to keep the negative impact of the twofold top example dynamic as of recently, subsequently, we will keep on suggesting the bearish pattern in the up and coming sessions, holding up to test 1.2550 level primarily. 

      Note that rupturing 1.2770 will lead the cost to recover the bullish pattern that its objectives start at 1.2890 and stretch out to 1.3100. 

      Expected exchanging range for now is between 1.2600 support and 1.2800 resistance.

       

      Edited by FireIce 26 Jun `17, 6:29PM
  • Dmitry.l's Avatar
    67 posts since Apr '17
    • <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->

      EUR/JPY Technical Outlook before Draghi's Speech
      This week our consideration will be focused on the ECB and BOJ presidents after the EUR/JPY currency pair has traded for seven weeks between the last highest level and the 23.6% level from the large wave from 114.84 to 125.74.

      In our last article about the pair we showed two scenarios for the pair's movement. We forecasted that the downside scenario will happen and this turned out to be true. We sold the pair at 124.50 and it achieved our target at 123.30.

      After the pair broke the upside trend line two weeks ago, the pair is still trading below it and retesting it. We predict it would decline further this week, that is in case the pair is still below the trend line. We have a key resistance area at 125.25 - maybe the pair can’t break it up; we can sell the EUR/JPY and the Stochastic indicator is trading at 78 level, giving us the sell signal for the next trading hours.

      The Next Few Days

      We can sell the pair at the current level below the uptrend line at 124.87 and keep our first target at the moving average, maybe at 124.40 and after breaking it, we can keep the second target at 123.30. We expect the pair will decline further to 50% next month, but if the pair breaks the last top at 125.74, we will close the sell positions and open buy positions.

      This week we have much hot news from Europe like the ECB President Draghi's speech today, tomorrow and Wednesday, as well as the BOJ Gov Kuroda's speech on Wednesday too, so we have to be careful this week. 
    • The Euro on the Rise

       

      The European currency seems to be on the rise, enjoying a positive economic outlook.

      Here is something we didn’t think we’d be saying so soon: the euro is having a good time.

      The currency of the European Union went through some serious hardship over the past decade – it suffered immensely in the global recession of 2008, the debt crisis in some EU countries such as Greece and Portugal, which eventually led to further internal conflicts and more trouble for Europe’s unity as the United Kingdom announced its intention to leave and the fear of losing more members spread as Italy and France held elections recently.

      However, this bleak phase for the euro seems to be approaching an end. Despite small daily fluctuations, which occur naturally when there’s global activity on the financial markets, the euro was able to climb up and is currently in its strongest levels since 2011, according to Reuters.

      Part of the reason why this is a little surprising is the fact that the European Central Bank, the EU’s organ for monetary policy, has been implementing a stimulus program to boost the European economy by encouraging inflation, something that logically decreases the value of the euro versus other major currencies. It has already been two years since the program began and investors as well as the ECB itself initially expected to continue with this approach for a few years. Nevertheless, recent data from the European Union shows the economy is doing quite well, which prompted ECB President Mario Draghi to show willingness to change the course of the current policy as early as September this year.

       

       

  • Seron.des15's Avatar
    3 posts since Jul '17
    • thanks for giving the information , it is very useful for a forex trader , it shows how and to trade with the currency - 

      USD/JPY Price Rate - 

      USD/JPY has seen an unexpected change obviously over the most recent 24 hours of exchanging. Following a month long climb from 108.8 to 114.49 on Wednesday, we've seen a sharp turnaround. The value design resembles a night begin inversion, however there are couple of things to note. To start with, the USD and JPY are the two weakest monetary forms in G8 on a relative measure (240-minute diagram against a 200-MA). Second, the relationship to JPY and yields has pushed higher (which means more grounded) to late positive extremes when investigating the most recent decade. Third and last, the Fed seems, by all accounts, to be pulling over from their hawkishness as other national banks are pushing forward and Friday's CPI could be significant in the up and coming pattern for US yields. A miss in the CPI print on Friday, and we may see a chipping ceaselessly of the evaluating in for a Q4 climb, which would likely take USD/JPY lower.

      Edited by FireIce 13 Jul `17, 3:35PM
  • Sgxstockresearch's Avatar
    4 posts since Jul '17
    • Thanks for giving the information, it is very useful for a forex traderThe Bank of Canada meets today in what is the first major release of the week. The meeting carries significant interest, as rate hike odds have surged quickly over the past month. On June 9, there was less than a 10% chance of a 25-bps rate hike at the upcoming July meeting; the day of the meeting, overnight index swaps are pricing in a 94% chance. During this timeframe, USD/CAD has depreciated by -4.6%. Needless to say, it appears that the rate hike itself is priced in.

  • V3forex's Avatar
    1 post since Jul '17
  • Klarkostin's Avatar
    2 posts since Jul '17
  • Dmitry.l's Avatar
    67 posts since Apr '17
    • CL/WTI: Short Review & Middle Term Forecast


      After the depressed period we have an upward trend again and preconditions for further growth, given the long-term perspectives for increasing demand.


      Between May and the end of June the market was depressed. Oil fell in price from $51 to $42. It seemed that the falling of oil prices is unstoppable. The oversupply of crude oil, the increase of oil extraction volumes even amid OPEC countries and the growth of oil reserves in the United States created a desperate situation, whereby market participants were unable to control the market and achieve a balance between demand and supply.


      However, in July oil began to recover due to the reduction of oil stocks in the United States and the reduction of drilling activity. In addition, the oil recovered in price amid the long-term forecasts which show perspectives for growth in the demand for oil, although some analysts disagree with that. Nevertheless, given the recent data such as the index of business activity in China from Caixin, which marks the increasing of business activity, there are good preconditions for an increasing demand for raw materials in China. The decreasing in oil reserves in the United States will ease the pressure on the oil market for the next few months.


      CL/WTI, H4

       

      In the near future the market will focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will take place on August 7-8. The volatility over the past few months has remained very high, but it's decreasing. We can expect for sure a continuation of the rates in the frames of the current uptrend. After the price correction, prices may recover to the level of 50-51 dollars. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time to open the deals to BUY on the trend.

      http://www.imghost.in/img/2017-08/02/sqtiv5wzfz78eubf8hlzft4rd.jpg


    • British Struggles


      The fallout from Brexit is a deteriorating economic climate in the UK, and the British pound shows it.


      Despite the unexpected strength of economic growth in Europe, the struggles of the United Kingdom continue. After the devastating losses incurred immediately before and after the Brexit referendum vote last summer and the disastrous elections results earlier this year, Britain and its currency still find themselves in a tight spot.


      Yesterday we heard from the Bank of England, who this time announced that they are taking a more pessimistic prognosis of the UK’s economy and downgraded their forecasts for economic growth for 2017 and 2018 for the second time this summer. As a result, the British pound sterling suffered losses versus the American dollar of almost 1%.


      The Bank of England’s stance is likely rooted in the disappointing wages. Since the pound slumped, goods imported to the United Kingdom naturally cost more for Brits, essentially driving their purchasing power lower. The BoE expects this problem to worsen in the future and is somewhat apprehensive regarding wage growth.


      Bank of England governor Mark Carney expressed a concern for businesses who find it additionally difficult to invest amid the political struggle inside of the United Kingdom and the problematic negotiations with the European Union regarding Brexit.


      The United Kingdom is currently lagging behind its European counterparts, and Carney expects an even slower economic growth. Needless to say, the bank chose not to increase interest rates yet, in hopes of stimulating the economy.


      Despite the political discord within the United Kingdom due to Theresa May’s party failing to achieve a definitive majority in the preliminary parliamentary elections she called and the lack of strong British leadership that resulted from that, the UK has proceeded with the EU negotiations. However, even though negotiators have met several times now, not much has been decided, especially since the EU is putting pressure on the UK to meet its critical demands regarding immigration and payment.


      Overall, the situation seems really unclear right now. British politicians are not helping much, as they provide contradictory statements from time to time, indicating the British government is not on the same page. The British pound has already dropped 13% since the Brexit vote, and due to the lack of proper leadership and the absence of clarity regarding the negotiations with the European Union we expect the GBP to continue its decrease versus major currencies.

       



    • EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

      The EUR/JPY pair recorded its highest level in 17 months and we expect new highs.


      The EUR/JPY currency pair rose last week to gain more than 130 pips and break the key resistance level at 130.64. Then, the currency pair doped on Friday after the US jobs report which showed an increase of 27 000 compared to 209k in July, so now the pair has returned back to trade above the resistance level again.


      The EUR/JPY pair has been trading inside a price channel since last April and after it broke July’s high to record the highest level in 17 months it is expected the pair will make new highs this month. The EUR/JPY is still trading above the moving average which is a support level for the prices and the MACD indicator supports our positive vision too.


      The Next Few Days


      From this simple analysis of the pair we can buy it at the current level 130.73 and keep our first target at 132.12, which is 161.8% from the short correction wave last month; we should place our second target at 134.14 and keep our stop-loss level once the pair breaks the channel down because it will change the trend if it did. If the pair breaks the support level 128.64 down we have to sell the pair and keep the take profit level at 125.50.

       

      This week the market is poor in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan. On Friday Japanese banks will be closed for Mountain Day.

    • GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart


      After a series of sideways movements, we believe the GBP/USD would finally rebound from the support and turn bullish.


      Today for our analysis we would look into the GBP/USD currency pair, which was moving sideways for some time but started going down after the American market open.


      At this point the GBP/USD is headed for a steady decrease and would soon touch an area when we can start buying it safely. Of course, we should pay attention to key levels and use the support at 1.3006, which coincides with several Fibonacci factors, as guidance for our buy positions. For the upper limit of the reverse movement after touching the support, we need to focus on the resistance level at 1.3109.


      In terms of technical indicators, we can very clearly see that the Stochastic one is playing with the support at 7.5%, which indicates that we would see a bullish turn soon, so we are expecting the price to rebound from the support up to the resistance we just mentioned above.


      The most important thing about this pair today is that the level of 1.30 is a sort of a pivot point: if the pair drops below it, we should expect that the bears will dominate the market. However, as long as the GBP/USD rates remain above it, we can rely on the pair rebounding from the support and climbing up.


      To sum up, we should place buy orders with a target of 1.3006 (our support level) and a take profit at 1.3109 (the resistance level). Just to be safe, we should also indicate our stop-loss at 1.2954.

       




    • NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

      The support line is moving down and the upward trend is weakening while the market is waiting for the RBNZ decision about the rate change and monetary policy.


      Since May the rates of the NZD/USD had been in the frames of an upward trend which is based on the weakened U.S. dollar. Now the market is almost frozen while waiting for the RBNZ's interest rate decision and the monetary policy report of the Central Bank.



      In the beginning of the month the NZD rate reached the level of May 2015, but then began decreasing to more reasonable levels because the value of the NZD seems overrated, given the worsening economic situation in the country and unconvincing economic statistics.


      Overall, we can definitely say there is a lack of incentives for the NZD to strengthen. In addition, the RBNZ has repeatedly stated that they're not interested in a strong currency rate. Investors are confident that the RBNZ will leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, the probability of a further decreasing of the NZD is very high. The only thing we can expect that can help the NZD to remain at the same high level would be a significant easing in the monetary policy of the RBNZ. We can even expect some price hikes during the period of news from the RBNZ tonight.


      This is a rare case when we have to ignore all oscillators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI), which unanimously indicate a signal about the oversold zone and a good moment for the deals to BUY. Because of the given the fundamental factors, there is a high probability for a further decreasing of the NZD/USD rate to the level of 0.72 USD. The support line has already started to shift down, so the deals to SELL seem much more effective. Nevertheless, it is too early to speak about the trend reversal, but it's safe to talk about the weakening of the current uptrend.

       



    • EUR/USD Technical Overview & Daily Chart


      After a strong bullish moment for the euro, the price movement has lulled, though we predict it would recover.


      Today for our analysis we would look into the current state of the EUR/USD currency pair.


      In recent weeks the euro has gradually strengthened against the weakened American dollar. This is largely due to good economic data from Europe, on the one hand, and political instability in the United States, on the other. However, this week we saw some short-term losses for the EUR; still, it didn’t drop too much and was able to find a stable support level above 1.17, which is not bad at all.


      The Euro still has the potential to resume its growth to the level of 1.18 that is so coveted by investors, but this might take some time, so we need to be patient.


      We currently have the deciding pivot point at 1.1724. If the EUR/USD drops below it, we should keep our eyes on the nearby support levels at 1.1712, 1.1704, and 1.1692. In case the price moves beyond the pivot point, we can use the nearby resistance levels at 1.1732, 1.1744, and 1.1752 as guidance.


      As of the moment of this article’s publication the EUR/USD is trading near the pivot point at around 1.1726. The technical indicators are unanimous in recommending a strong sell.


      We have some fundamental releases from both the European Union and the United States today. In Europe we expect data on the French industrial production, as well as the trade balance of Italy. From the US we are waiting for the balance of the federal budget, the core PPI, the reserves of natural gas, unemployment, and other economic data. Because of these releases some moderate volatility can be expected in the pair today.

       


    • The US vs. North Korea


      The markets are shaken amid the rising tensions between the United States and North Korea.


      While this week has been more or less quiet in terms of actual economic events affecting the financial markets, it was quite the opposite in terms of politics: this week US President Donald Trump made several controversial comments that sparked a discussion on whether the United States would be going to war with North Korea.


      Needless to say, such major fundamental events always have an effect on the markets. In this particular case it was Asian stocks (particularly in South Korea, which is dangerously close to a potential war zone) that dropped significantly – now they seem more insecure than ever, and investors are directing their attention to other safe-haven instruments such as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.


      The currency of Korea, the won, also suffered losses against the dollar, dropping to its lowest this month as a result of the growing tensions in the region.


      Australian markets are also somewhat affected, while the state of the markets in Japan is unclear since the country was celebrating a holiday and the market was not open. The American stock market also suffered amid the news, as did the stock markets in London, Paris, and Frankfurt.


      So, what happened exactly?


      North Korea, which has been more active in its testing of military weapons over the past few years, announced its intentions to fire missiles into Guam, which is officially a US-controlled territory. It is important to note that the Korean war never officially ended, so at least on paper relations between the United States and North Korea are not good.


      In recent months tensions with North Korea came to light also because the communist state released a prisoner who was an American citizen, who reached the US in a terrible physical state. The young man showed signs of extensive brain damage; his condition was so bad that it completely baffled American doctors, and he soon died. This story rattled the West and caused people to speculate that North Korea is up to something.


      Instead of addressing North Korea’s plans of attack through the accepted diplomatic channels, Trump took to Twitter to talk about retaliation, and then reaffirmed in an interview that he is ready to go to war if North Korea does attack any American territories.


      This newly-added level of serious political insecurity rattled the global financial markets. The dollar marked new decreases against the yen. In addition, the yen is gaining on the USD due to issues with the American treasury and a possible default coming in the next two to three months.


      Clearly this is a complex issue. So far neither country has attacked, but considering that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un have got to be the two most unpredictable leaders in the world right now, tensions are definitely growing steadily. Make sure you watch out for any related news and see how the markets are responding as more information is flowing in.

       



    • GBP/AUD Technical Outlook & H4 Chart
      The bears are back this week to make new lows. After the GBP/AUD recorded its highest level this year at 1.7647 in May, it turned back to decline by more than 1350 pips and it’s trading now at 1.6480. Today the Australian Dollar rose in the beginning of the week because of the tension between North Korea and the United States, in addition to China's foreign ministry saying there is no future in a China-U.S. trade war and adding that issues of trade and North Korea are not connected. The ministry also said that China pays great attention to protecting its intellectual property rights and says the essence of U.S.-China trade is mutually beneficial and a win-win. The GBP/AUD currency pair is trading inside a downside price channel which may lead the pair to new lows this week. The pair’s trading between support and resistance areas representative at the trend lines and it’s expected that the pair will break the downside trend line to decline further. The moving average is trading above the prices which supports the negative vision, while the Stochastic indicator hasn't shown us the sell signal yet. The Next Few Days After we learned the outlook for the pair is down, we can take sell positions at the resistance levels, which means we can take sell positions now at the current level 1.6480, sell again if it reaches 1.6560, and place a third sell position at 1.6640, keeping our target for all of them at 1.6310. This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales. In addition, we expect the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for the Australian bank and the Unemployment Rate. 

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