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A third of S’pore will be ‘grey’ in 2050: report

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  • winsomeea's Avatar
    2,318 posts since Sep '11
    • Yahoo! Newsroom

      By Chua Yini | Yahoo! Newsroom – Mon, Jun 11, 2012

      A “silver tsunami” lies in Singapore’s future, as almost a third the people in the city-state will be over 65 years old in a few decades.

      According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) commissioned by Manulife Asset Management, the pensioner population in most countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will triple in less than 40 years. 

      Entitled “Saving up: The changing shape of retirement funding in a greying ASEAN”, the report revealed that the ageing phenomenon is worst in Singapore. Almost 32 per cent of residents will be over 65 years old in 2050, as compared to 9 per cent in 2010. It will be by far the highest percentage among member nations. 

      As a result of the ageing population, there would be a considerable strain on retirement funding, according to the report. 

      It forecast that by 2050, dependency ratios would increase almost five-fold. Every 100 workers will support 58 pensioners, as compared to just 12 pensioners in 2010. 

      In addition, less than half of Singaporeans have signed up for a pension scheme currently, hinting at a future where significant numbers of people may enter old age with little financial support.  

      This highlights the pressing need for an alternative savings mechanism to help people better prepare for their retirement with additional financial schemes, according to EIU.

    • icon_rolleyes.gif  O o!

    • O O, how many of us have sufficient savings for old age???

      O o!     icon_frown.gif

  • charlize's Avatar
    31,782 posts since Mar '05
  • Gentleman_For_Girls's Avatar
    26 posts since Apr '12
    • Oh no! This mean no more sexy-yet-smelly Chinese SG girls who stink and know how to to the say the word "stink" in Tamil!!


  • Summer hill's Avatar
    6,640 posts since Dec '11
  • winsomeea's Avatar
    2,318 posts since Sep '11
    • Originally posted by Gentleman_For_Girls:

      Oh no! This mean no more sexy-yet-smelly Chinese SG girls who stink and know how to to the say the word "stink" in Tamil!!


      Your details can be traced and use to report to the authority for being racist.     What is so great about saying the word stink in Tamil????     Stop practising caste system la before you point fingers to other race.     You people cannot even stand united as the people of the same race now you dare to bully other race.   Damn you !

  • Summer hill's Avatar
    6,640 posts since Dec '11
    • Originally posted by Gentleman_For_Girls:

      Oh no! This mean no more sexy-yet-smelly Chinese SG girls who stink and know how to to the say the word "stink" in Tamil!!


      ur damn sexist and racist

  • Fcukpap's Avatar
    7,299 posts since Dec '09
  • Rock^Star's Avatar
    11,142 posts since Jul '05
    • I think that estimate has not factored in the no. of sgporeans who would have left sg by then.

  • Paem's Avatar
    119 posts since Feb '12
  • charlize's Avatar
    31,782 posts since Mar '05
    • We need to import more people into the country so that the % of old people will fall.


      Repeat after every generation. icon_lol.gif

  • Dalforce 1941's Avatar
    2,185 posts since Dec '11

      A third of S’pore will be ‘grey’ in 2050: report



      This is a normal, not abnormal trend in more developed countries like Singapore. 

      It shows that Singapore is a normal country.



      Most stable and primitive societies, such as the American Indians before 1492 or medieval Europe, have no great population problem because the birthrate is balanced by the death rate.

      In such societies both of these are high, the population is stable, and the major portion of that population is young (below eighteen years of age). This kind of society (frequently called Population Type A) is what existed in Europe in the medieval period (say about 1400) or even in part of the early modern period (say about 1700).

      As a result of the increased supply of food in Europe after 1725, and of men's increased ability to save lives because of advances in sanitation and medicine after 1775, the death rate began to fall, the birthrate remained high, the population began to increase, and the number of older persons in the society increased.

      This gave rise to what we have called the demographic explosion (or Population Type B). As a result of it, the population of Europe (beginning in western Europe) increased in the nineteenth century, and the major portion of that population was in the prime of life (ages eighteen to forty-five), the arms-bearing years for men and the childbearing years for women.

           At this point the demographic cycle of an expanding population goes into a third stage (Population Type C) in which the birthrate also begins to fall.

      The reasons for this fall in the birthrate have never been explained in a satisfactory way, but, as a consequence of it, there appears a new demographic condition marked by a falling birthrate, a low death rate, and a stabilizing and aging population whose major part is in the mature years from thirty to sixty.

      As the population gets older because of the decrease in births and the increase in expectation of life, a larger and larger part of the population has passed the years of hearing children or bearing arms. This causes the birthrate to decline even more rapidly, and eventually gives a population so old that the death rate begins to rise again because of the great increase in deaths from old age or from the casualties of inevitable senility.

      Accordingly, the society passes into a fourth stage of the demographic cycle (Population Type D). This stage is marked by a declining birthrate, a rising death rate, a decreasing population, and a population in which the major part is over fifty years of age.

           It must be confessed that the nature of the fourth stage of this demographic cycle is based on theoretical considerations rather than on empirical observation, because even western Europe, where the cycle is most advanced, has not yet reached this fourth stage.

      However, it seems quite likely that it will pass into such a stage by the year 2000, and already the increasing number of older persons has given rise to new problems and to a new science called geriatrics both in western Europe and in the eastern United States.

           As we have said, Europe has already experienced the first three stages of this demographic cycle as a result of the Agricultural Revolution after 1725 and the Sanitation-Medical Revolution after 1775.

      As these two revolutions have diffused outward from western Europe to more peripheral areas of the world (the lifesaving revolution passing the food-producing revolution in the process), these more remote areas have entered, one by one, upon the demographic cycle.

      This means that the demographic explosion (Population Type B) has moved outward from western Europe to Central Europe to eastern Europe and finally to Asia and Africa.

      By the middle of the twentieth century, India was fully in the grasp of the demographic explosion, with its population shooting upward at a rate of about 5 million a year, while Japan's population rose from 55 million in 1920 to 94 million in 1960.

      A fine example of the working of this process can be seen in Ceylon where in 1920 the birthrate was 40 per thousand and the death rate was 32 per thousand, but in 1950 the birthrate was still at 40 while the death rate had fallen to 12.

      Before we examine the impact of this development on world history in the twentieth century let us look at two brief tables which will clarify this process.

           The demographic cycle may be divided into four stages which we have designated by the first four letters of the alphabet. These four stages can be distinguished in respect to four traits: the birthrate, the death rate, the number of the population, and its age distribution. The nature of the four stages in these four respects can be seen in the following table:



      The Demographic Cycle


      Stage               A          B               C               D


      Birthrate          High          High               Falling               Low


      Death rate          High          Falling               Low               Rising


      Numbers           Stable          Rising               Stable               Falling


      Age                Many young     Many in prime          Many Middle-aged     Many old

      Distribution          (Below 18)     (18-45)          (Over 30)          (Over 50)


           The consequences of this demographic cycle (and the resulting demographic explosion) as it diffuses outward from western Europe to more peripheral areas of the world may be gathered from the following table which sets out the chronology of this movement in the four areas of western Europe, central Europe, eastern Europe, and Asia:



      Diffusion of the Demographic Cycle




                     Western          Central          Eastern

           Dates          Europe          Europe          Europe          Asia

           1700               A          A                    A               A


           1800               B          A                    A               A


           1850               B      |     B                    A               A


           1900               C          B      |          B               A


           1950               C          C                    B      |          B


           2000               D          D                    C               B



           In this table the line of greatest population pressure (the demographic explosion of Type B population) has been marked by a dotted line. This shows that there has been a sequence, at intervals of about fifty years, of four successive population pressures which might be designated with the following names:


                               Anglo-French pressure, about 1850

                               Germanic-Italian pressure, about 1900

                               Slavic pressure, about 1950

                               Asiatic pressure, about 2000

           This diffusion of pressure outward from the western European core of Western Civilization can contribute a great deal toward a richer understanding of the period 1850-2000. It helps to explain the Anglo-French rivalry about 1850, the Anglo-French alliance based on fear of Germany after 1900, the free-world alliance based on fear of Soviet Russia after 1950, and the danger to both Western Civilization and Soviet Civilization from Asiatic pressure by 2000...



      Edited by Dalforce 1941 19 Jun `12, 9:53PM
    • I think the problem with Singapore is that when Singapore was in stage B of the normal demographic development cycle, when the birth rate was relatively high, the PAP saw it as a problem and intervened to artificially slow down the birthrate instead of letting the demographic cycle play itself out to its logical conclusion.

      This was a mistake of PAP policy.

      Edited by Dalforce 1941 19 Jun `12, 10:12PM
  • troublemaker2005's Avatar
    8,443 posts since Dec '05
  • mancha's Avatar
    8,961 posts since Sep '04
    • Will follow same pattern lah.

      Stage               A          B               C               D

      Like                High       High        Falling        Low


    • Originally posted by Paem:

      The report is based on the assumption everyone targeted dies in the same year.

      The report is based on the assumptin everyone targeted do not die along the way.

  • bycai's Avatar
    240 posts since Jul '12
    • saving is a beauty of all since the good old days...but for grey in 2050, probably is over exaggarating on economic term especially the ministers etc icon_lol.gif. For oldies if living a healthy lifestyle in their young days requires very minimum spending on food and decoratives. pple have to be healthily educated on rights of their body and mind for a better world of tomorrow. If pple dumps alot of 'dirts' beyond their body system could nurture it, it will left behind a burden in its future of wellness and who truly care, other than charitable organisations conscientiously and sincerely obligated with a small sum, and their immediate family. what if some oldies love to survive on their own enjoy living in their own flat. govenment should look into the bills of those lower-medium incomes oldies who are too old / frail to have a pay cheque as expenses for flat and other billing. other discounts on hot beverages should preferably also be offered to oldies of this categories and tax deductible. wow! what a joys of tomorrow, why fear for being grey with full of potential happiness to comes icon_lol.gif

      Edited by bycai 07 Jul `12, 10:14AM
  • mancha's Avatar
    8,961 posts since Sep '04
    • The present CPF withdrawl rules are for the present would-be withdrawees, the uncles are assumed to be likely to start a sunset family in Batam. Previously it was Hatyai, or Pataya with a tiger.

      In the year 2050, the rules would be adjusted to... gays maybe.

  • Pinknutri's Avatar
    648 posts since Jan '10
    • You won't see anyone grey because everyone will dye hair. Nowadays, I hardly see people with grey hair. Anyway, age is only a number.

  • Clivebenss's Avatar
    20,592 posts since Feb '10
    • Originally posted by Pinknutri:

      You won't see anyone grey because everyone will dye hair. Nowadays, I hardly see people with grey hair. Anyway, age is only a number.

      age is not numbers, wait till you are old.


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