Taiwan-China Issue
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stay tunedOriginally posted by suntze:boy in blue, thks for these informative post; I find the article on Kissinger's visit particularly interesting.
There is underlying optimism in KissingerÂ’s statement about the US government welcoming dialogue between CCP and TaiwanÂ’s opposition parties. It firstly highlights the fact that dialogue is a positive move towards reducing cross-strait tensions and secondly underlines the preference of the US (provided his views reflect that of the administration) for a peaceful resolution.
So far, Hu-Wen have made their moves in a rational and strategic manner, more so than their immediate predecessors. TheyÂ’re probably busy implementing a strategy of winning without fighting. The latest move is the invitation of the KMT and the PFP thereby cutting the ground from under the DPP.
They're probably experts at Go!!
'Go' has been intellectual property of China since 6th century B.C.
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http://www.forbes.com/technology/personaltech/feeds/ap/2005/05/12/ap2021137.html
Forbes
Associated Press
Taiwan Shares End Higher on U.S. Rally
05.12.2005, 04:19 AM
Diana Wu, an analyst at Capital Securities, said she expects the local bourse to consolidate between 5,800 and 6,050 Friday and next week as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of Saturday's elections and next week's speech by Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian.
On Saturday, Taiwanese voters will elect delegates to an assembly that will in turn vote on proposed reforms of the electoral system. Beijing is wary this could ultimately lead to an independence referendum.
China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing still claims sovereignty over the island. China sees Chen as a supporter of formal independence, a move which Beijing says could lead to military action.
And on May 20, the anniversary of Chen's inauguration, investors will pay close attention to Chen's remarks about China-Taiwan relations, especially at a possible response to Beijing's proposal to allow mainland tourists to visit the island.
Hopes that Taiwan will reach an agreement with China on allowing Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan sent the tourism subindex 5.2 percent higher, analysts said.
Leofoo Development soared 4.8 percent to NT$17.4 and Ambassador Hotel advanced 4.1 percent higher at NT$26.5.
Taiwan shares ended slightly higher Thursday, led by chipmakers and flat-panel makers, following modest gains in the U.S. market, analysts said.
The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange finished 17.47 points, or 0.3 percent, higher at 5,934.60 in dealings valued at 56.1 billion New Taiwan dollars (US$1.79 billion; euro1.4 billion).
Decliners outnumbered advancers 472 to 349, while 197 issues ended the day unchanged.
"The index ended higher after spending much of the session in negative territory, indicating investors aren't convinced of a better tech outlook," said Margaret Pan, a senior vice president at Capital Securities.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.2 percent overnight, while the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.5 percent.
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest contract chipmaker, rose 1.7 percent to NT$54.5, recovering some of their 2 percent decline Wednesday.
The stock fell in the previous session after the chipmaker approved an issue of 210 million American Depository Receipts backed by common shares held by Philips Electronics and Taiwan's Cabinet Development Fund.
TSMC's smaller rival United Microelectronics Corp. rose 1.6 percent to NT$19.45.
Makers of liquid-crystal-display panels rose after a report in Taiwan's business daily the Commercial Times said AU Optronics successfully test-produced 94-centimeter (37-inch) flat panels.
The report also said AU Optronics, the world's third-largest LCD maker, will more than double its 32-inch flat-panel shipments this month from April.
AU Optronics finished 1.3 percent higher at NT$52.8 and Chi Mei Optoelectronics ended up 0.6 percent at NT$50.8.
However, memory chipmakers fell after Korea's Samsung Electronics said it expects demand and supply for DRAM chips to be in balance in the second half of the year in a slightly more conservative view than that of many analysts.
Powerchip, Taiwan's largest DRAM maker, ended down 2 percent at NT$24.5 after sliding as much as 4 percent Thursday, while Nanya Technology dropped 1.3 percent to NT$23 after falling as much as 4.3 percent during the session. -
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/detail.asp?GRP=E&id=62309
FTA best for both sides of Taiwan Strait
2005/5/12
TAIPEI, CNA
Business
Economic Minister Ho Mei-yueh said yesterday that a free trade agreement (FTA) between Taiwan and China would be best for Taiwan. She also said that if China is sincere, it should discuss the issue with Taiwan.
Ho made the remarks when she was invited by the Economics and Energy Committee in the Legislative Yuan to report on the cross-Taiwan Strait situation and the prospects for a cross-strait common market after a meeting between main opposition Kuomintang Chairman Lien Chan and Chinese President Hu Jintao in Beijing in late April in which both advocated cross-strait economic cooperation.
KMT Legislator Lai Shyh-bao noted that the government wants both sides of the Taiwan Strait to have trade talks under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), but he questioned if that will be beneficial to Taiwan.
Lai pointed out that Taiwan joined the WTO in 2002 under the name of Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu, and not in the name of a country.
The FTA is an agreement between countries, Lai went on, adding that President Chen Shui-bian and Premier Frank Hsieh have said that both sides must sign the FTA, which Lai claimed is a policy "to cheat the people, " or just "pie in the sky" because of the international reality.
Ho said that Taiwan indeed joined the WTO as an economic entity, but according to the WTO rules, such economic entities can also sign FTAs. If both sides of the Taiwan Strait want to talk about tariff concessions,any treaties or agreements must be sent to the Legislative Yuan for approval according to domestic law.
Lo Hsih-hsiung, another KMT legislator, noted that the government advocates exchanges under the WTO framework, but said Taiwan imposes a number of restrictions on cross-strait trade, and he expressed doubt that Taiwan would agree to reciprocal tariff concessions for China.
Lo said that Taiwan does not have to insist on the WTO framework, adding that if the FTA is not feasible, there might be another alternative available to the government.
However, Ho said that the government at present does not consider that there are any feasible alternatives to talks under the WTO framework in line with Taiwan's law. -
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GE11Ad01.html
Federation could be win-win for China, Taiwan
By George Zhibin Gu
May 11, 2005
The realities between Taiwan and mainland China are "economically hot, politically cold". Their ever-increasing economic ties demand far better political relations. One highly feasible resolution is a "federation". Would it work? The answer: economically, the time is right; politically, it is only few steps away.
A federal system would mean more autonomy for Taiwan than Hong Kong and Macau enjoy; for Beijing it would mean the revolutionary concept of a unified China with multiple power centers. Under a federal system, the island would keep its own government, military, judicial and other systems. Its political leadership would not bow to Beijing. In short, it would be a political partnership between equals. Both political entities would be subject only to a "federation" law. And anything is open for discussion under the "one China" principle.
Taiwan's love affair with the mainland
Economically, Taiwan and mainland China are well connected. The mainland is Taiwan's biggest trading partner as well as its No 1 export market. In 2004, total cross-strait trade reached US$61.6 billion, a jump of 33.1% over 2003; of which Taiwan's exports accounted for $45 billion, by Taiwan's own accounting.
Besides ever-increasing trade, investment is another major activity. In 2004 alone, Taiwan Inc invested $6.94 billion in the mainland. Officially, Taiwan's total investment stood at about $40 billion by 2004. But some people estimate it as high as over $100 billion. This discrepancy in numbers comes from numerous government restrictions on Taiwan investment in the mainland; as a result, many members of Taiwan Inc may go to the mainland from a third location. One popular way is via tax-shelter islands.
Behind the ever-increasing trade, there is an ever-increasing tide of investment from Taiwan Inc. The mainland is its biggest destination already and it now has over 60,000 Taiwan enterprises. It also has more than 1 million Taiwan residents as well. Shanghai alone has more than 300,000 Taiwan residents. Living and working opportunities in the mainland will only increase for the Taiwan residents, as there are more opportunities for them over there.
This cross-strait trade has made a huge difference in the island's economic health. Lately, nearly all the island's growth has been attributed to mainland trade. In particular, cross-strait trade has created 1 million jobs in Taiwan. There are vast additional benefits as well.
In reality, there is huge room for improvement, as there are numerous restrictions in Taiwan opposing bilateral trade and investment. For example, its largest energy company, China Power, is allowed only to buy up to one-third of the coal it needs from the mainland. As a result, China Power must spend more money to buy the additional coal from places far away. If such bans were lifted, cross-strait trade could easily double. In reality, better political ties are demanded for both sides to enjoy all the benefits from their huge economic cooperation.
A big step towards a solution
Like Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan is moving fast in integrating its economy with that of the mainland. This process has been accelerating year after year. Taiwan has gained enormously and its economic benefits will directly promote better political relations.
The current cross-strait difficulties are caused by the unfinished business of the long-term civil war between the Communist Party and the Kuomintang (KMT), the nationalist party that lost the Chinese civil war and fled to Taiwan. For now, the KMT has become more involved, officially visiting the mainland.
Despite all the political uneasiness, the general direction can hardly be reversed. Indeed, in the past six decades, there have been dramatic improvements, from past exchanges in bombshells to vast human and economic exchanges, as is the case today.
Simply put, more rational measures will only offer the island's political leadership more advantages. Despite all the frictions between Beijing and Taipei, the roads for peaceful resolutions are wide open. The recent trip to the mainland by the Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan is a very healthy start. It also opens a wider door for more direct exchanges between Beijing and Taipei.
For both parties, being Chinese is their greatest strength and nothing is more significant. For now, there are also positive signs from Taipei. In particular, Taipei is considering widening access for mainland Chinese tourists. Also, more political groups from Taiwan are on their way to visit the mainland. As such, widening peaceful contacts and dialogues are emerging. All this points to bright prospects for both sides.
In the long run, the most crucial factor determining the ultimate outcome of the unity issue is sustained progress in the mainland, both economically and politically. A progressive and prosperous mainland China will change all the dynamics in the cross-strait relations. Happily, by now, mainland China is entering a new era of deepening institutional and political reforms, besides possibly new rounds of economic advancement. This will fundamentally enhance a peaceful resolution of the unity issue. At the same time, the choices to bring about unity are also vast. They include the choice of a new federation for China, for example. As a matter of fact, it is the best choice on the table.
Why federation?
The central concern is that the island's government is afraid to become a "local government" under a central government from Beijing. Instead, it wishes to maintain itself as an independent political center, having all the autonomy possible. It wishes to keep its independent government body, military, currency and judicial systems, among other things. In short, it does not intend to be subject to a higher central power.
For Beijing, the concern is more about political unity. It has become very pragmatic in its thinking and dealings. In its mind, anything can be and should be discussed provided that there is one China. This position of Beijing means that it has walked out on the traditional mentality that a unified China must be governed under one centralized government. This change in mentality and policy lays down the very political foundation for a federation.
CONTINUED IN NEXT POST -
Already, Hong Kong's and Macau's returns to China are exemplary. The situation is different from the United States federal system, for example. In the US, the governor of New York State is elected by the state's residents and his actions are independent of the central government in Washington, DC. However, federal law overrides state and local statutes. Financially, the central government levies a federal tax on New York residents. But in both Hong Kong and Macau, Beijing does not have tax claims over those residents living in those highly self-governed cities, though politically, Beijing remains as the central authority.
However, the good will of Beijing goes far beyond the degree of autonomy for Hong Kong and Macau - as far as the special case of Taiwan is concerned. Indeed, Beijing's position is that Taiwan can gain much more autonomy in the future. For a long time, Beijing has been proposing that the island maintain its government and key institutions. Its political leadership would not be subject to Beijing. Both political entities would be subject only to a "federation" law. Anything could be discussed under the "one China" principle. So, China has already moved toward a federation, though Beijing has not used the word "federation."
This "federal" approach is revolutionary for China, as it has never happened before. It means that a unified China can have more than one political center. Indeed, Taipei will become another political center under a federation. Gaining multiple political centers would certainly be new to all Chinese. But this is demanded by the current realities and it is the best possible resolution that accommodates the needs of the various political entities.
Would this federal alterative do Taiwan any good? It certainly would. Above all, it gets rid of all unwanted political tensions and offers all the opportunities for Taiwan. In short, the island's political establishment would gain all the advantages, while keeping all its existing positive institutions and ways in a federation. Otherwise, continued cross-strait tensions will cause unnecessary damages, even catastrophic damages, if they escalate.
Hostility toward mainland China with 1.3 billion Chinese would be most irrational as well as unacceptable to all Chinese around globe. But a change in mentality as well as approach would open the doors to a better world.
Above all, they are all Chinese, separated only by an unfinished business of a painful civil war. Now, the Chinese people have all the opportunities to move forward creatively and productively. It means a peaceful unification for the Chinese people living on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. It roots out all the elements for political tensions and the unwanted consequences. Both sides will benefit directly from peaceful unity. This great prospect of a federal alternative has emerged at this time.
The rational resolution of the cross-strait tension will enhance global peace and progress, not just for China. For many decades, and even centuries, the Taiwan issue has been a key de-stabilizing factor for East Asia and beyond. A peaceful and progressive outcome would bring benefits to the entire world. So, therefore, the outside world has every reason to be supportive and constructive in promoting the federation concept.
(Copyright 2005 George Zhibin Gu.)
George Zhibin Gu, author and business consultant based in China, is the author of a forthcoming book, China's Global Reach: Markets, Multinationals and Globalization (Haworth Press, Fall 2005). (Some thoughts on a Chinese federation are also contained in his previous book, China Beyond Deng: Reform in the PRC, McFarland, 1991) He can be reached at [email protected]. -
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_20/b3933021.htm?chan=gb
Stan Shih on Taiwan and China
The PC-pioneer-turned-VC talks about the two countries' futures and about how Taiwan can gain by becoming an "integrator"
MAY 16, 2005 • Editions: N. America | Europe | Asia | Edition Preference
For nearly three decades, Stan Shih was the driving force behind Acer Inc., one of the world's top PC brands and the Taiwanese company that has had the most success moving beyond the contract-manufacturing business and establishing its own name worldwide. A few months ago, Shih retired from Acer and is now running idSoft Capital, a Taipei-based venture-capital firm. He also created headlines recently by revealing that he had a resigned as an adviser to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian.
Shih spoke to BusinessWeek's Bruce Einhorn and Matt Kovac in April at his Taipei office about the controversy surrounding that resignation and the role that he sees Taiwan playing as China continues to grow. Following are edited excerpts:
Q: Why did you step down as an adviser to President Chen?
A: I am a citizen, and I always cooperate with the government, [so] in 2000 I agreed to become one of the national advisers to the President [if] Mr. Chen became the President. It's natural. I'm a citizen of the country, and I'm honored to be an adviser to the President.
Q: Then why did you quit?
A: [Being an adviser] created a lot of concern. I had a lot of trouble, because I am neutral. It mislead [people] into [believing] I support the DPP. [President Chen started a] new term last year. Many KMT friends and advisers were not renewed. It looks like I'm supporting the DPP. Looks, looks -- in reality, it's not. I just decided last year, because I was going to retire [from Acer], that I would ask not to renew.
Q: The news caused a bit of a stir, coming so soon after the open letter from Chen adviser Hsu Wen-long that criticized Chen's government. Do you think there's a trend among business leaders to distance themselves from President Chen and his party because of pressure from Beijing?
A: I think [Taiwanese business leaders] are all neutral. As businessmen, they always want to be neutral. Maybe from my personal point of view, I don't think the PRC [would] like us to go against Taiwan. They are not in any position to request that. There is no way. If the Taiwan government asks us to go against China, economic development, it's very difficult. Our position is not against their development, the PRC. It's very difficult, very sensitive. As businessmen, we work with anyone.
Q: Where do you see China's economy moving?
A: China right now is the world factory already. But in many sectors of the industry I think there are two [problems. The first is that China] createa oversupply all over the world. Another is China now consumes a lot of natural resources in an ineffective way. If they don't control these developments, in the long run, China just can't keep continuing to progress this way. They will reach a limit.
Q: What's the answer?
A: Now is a knowledge-based economy. There's a lot of innovation, a lot of knowledge. But to me, my current thinking is really how to integrate the current available resources in an effective way. It's most important right now. We don't need to do something new. We only try to integrate the current resources available in Greater China with the global economic requirements.
Q: Is there a role for Taiwan in that process?
A: Taiwan can play this integration role. We know how to leverage the China resources, we know what the global requirements [are], we have the reputation as integrators, taking the risks. Taiwan can become a hub to integrate.
The beauty is that Taiwan is so small. Nobody is concerned about Taiwan, so Taiwan can become an integrator. Everyone is concerned about the U.S. dominating everything. Taiwan cannot dominate. Taiwan is small, with a small population. [For] China and the Japanese, if they don't conquer the world, they aren't happy. If we can do a little bit more, we are happy.
Q: What do you think is the Taiwan advantage?
A: In many cases, all the new technology developments or business plans from Day One are global concerns, [with a] global view. In the past, many American companies focused on the U.S. only. [But for Taiwanese] from Day One, you have consider that your business model is a global concern. Taiwanese companies because of their small country, an island, their culture is global from Day One.
Q: Lots of people are worrying about the Taiwanese economy hollowing out as manufacturing jobs disappear.
A: Hollowing out -- [the process] starts from Japan, it's their terminology. I try to convince the Taiwan general public that the hollowing out of low-value-added activity is not a critical concern. Hollowing out the future higher-value-added activity is the concern, and those areas are more intangible. Hollowing out of tangible things is not critical. Hollowing out of intangible things is really critical. But this kind of message is not easy to communicate and appreciated by the general public.
Q: What's the answer?
A: The government [should look at] how to reorient human resources [among those who have lost their manufacturing jobs]. If you don't do that, you always create unemployment. If we develop a service industry more aggressively, this more effectively utilizes Taiwan resources. We should not be concerned about hollowing of manufacturing jobs to China, because you just cannot stop it, and even if you could, it's not in the interests of Taiwan at all.
Q: What sort of edge does Taiwan have in services?
A: We can do many things. One-third of the economy is manufacturing, but service is two-thirds. The manufacturing is relatively more global. Service is related to the culture. Service is the future of China, quality of life. In the Chinese community, Taiwan relatively is more complete. Hong Kong is a city. Singapore is a city. They are not really a typical Chinese community. Taiwan is really the future of many of the China communities.
For a lot of service industries [in China], Taiwan practice is more suitable than any other model, American model or Japanese model, to practice in China. The future of Taiwan is technology-based service industry. It's much higher-value-added and more leverages integration capability, and helps Taiwan become more of a leader.
Q: How much of a threat do Chinese companies pose?
A: Chinese companies, if they do this, they need a lot of considerations. No. 1, of course, is that they have to earn the trust from others. Trust sometimes takes time to build.
No. 2, they have to integrate global resources. If you just try to do it by yourself, it's impossible. The Taiwanese, when they move to Dongguan, to Yangtze River, to Suzhou, it's in clusters. The Chinese players, they don't have that.
No. 3 is that China players today [are focused] really [on the] local market. It's not a manufacturing culture for global requirements. They can be good for subcontracting. But their manufacturing is not for global. Their orientation is more for local market requirements. -
May 14, 10:17 AM EDT
Taiwan Ruling Party Wins Special Election
By PETER ENAV
Associated Press Writer
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan's ruling party won elections Saturday for a special assembly charged with amending the island's constitution, giving a big boost to President Chen Shui-bian's policy of resisting unification with rival China.
With 99 percent of the ballots counted, the Central Election Commission said the Democratic Progressive Party had won 42.5 percent of the vote, against 38.9 percent for the opposition Nationalist Party.
The vote - for the ad hoc National Assembly - had developed into a test of strength for Chen's policies, following the visits to China of Nationalist chief Lien Chan, and James Soong, head of the People First Party.
That party garnered only 6.1 percent of the vote, coming in fourth behind the Taiwan Solidarity Union, a pro-independence party, whose spiritual godfather is former President Lee Teng-hui. The TSU won 7 percent of the vote.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/T/TAIWAN_ELECTION_RESULTS?SITE=ASIAONE&SECTION=ASIA&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT -
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20050511-1438-china-taiwan.html
Taiwan politician in Beijing says two sides should pursue common prosperity, ensure peace
By Alexa Olesen
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:38 p.m. May 11, 2005
BEIJING – Alluding to a speech by President John F. Kennedy, a Taiwanese opposition leader said Wednesday that China and Taiwan should put aside political differences and reap the economic benefits of what he called the coming Chinese century.
The remarks by James Soong, chairman of Taiwan's People First Party, come ahead of a scheduled meeting Thursday with Chinese President Hu Jintao.
Soong is the second Taiwanese opposition leader to hold talks with Hu within a month as part of Chinese efforts to contain activists who want Taiwan, which split with China in 1949 amid civil war, to make its independence permanent.
Beijing is trying to forge ties with groups such as Soong's People First Party that favor uniting with the mainland.
"The children of China do not forget their roots, brothers across the Taiwan Strait have a common ancestor and pursuing peace is a mainstream wish," said Soong during a meeting with communist leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
At a banquet with Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong, Soong called his trip one of "great significance."
"Our visit has broken a great political taboo from the past 50 years and I feel excited to come to the mainland to have an official, face-to-face exchange between the two sides," he said.
He reaffirmed his party's opposition to Taiwan independence – something he has done at almost every stop of his nine-day trip.
"This is our unshakable stance," Soong said.
At a speech earlier Wednesday at Beijing's elite Tsinghua University, Soong said Taiwan and China should become "the manufacturing center for the world and also the most prosperous market in the whole world."
"This is the Chinese century," Soong said. "The whole world is now waiting for the huge dragon, China, to take off ... Are we Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait ready?"
China and Taiwan have no official relations and high-level contacts are rare.
Despite a lack of official ties, trade and indirect travel across the Taiwan Strait is booming. Taiwanese companies have invested more than $100 billion in the mainland.
Soong said Taiwan should take concrete actions to improve cross-Straits relations and reduce misunderstandings but he didn't give specifics.
Soong alluded to President John F. Kennedy's famous comment on patriotism to make his point on improving relations. "Ask not what I said in Beijing. ... Ask only what we're doing back in Taiwan."
Kennedy said in his 1961 inaugural address: "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
Soong asked mainland Chinese to sympathize with the affection that ethnic Chinese feel for their adopted Taiwanese homeland – something he called "Taiwan consciousness." He asked mainlanders not confuse that feeling with the actions of a minority of Taiwanese agitating for formal independence.
"Those people have political motivation and (their concerns) cannot be confused with the warm feelings of the ordinary people of Taiwan," Soong said.
On Taiwan, President Chen Shui-bian first criticized the trips by his rivals, then expressed cautious support for them, and finally claimed that he alone is capable of breaking the deadlock with China over Taiwan's political status.
Chen's confused response to visits to China by two political rivals has spurred attacks from friends and enemies, raising questions about his continued political effectiveness.
Lien Chan, head of Taiwan's main opposition group, the Nationalist Party, met with Hu on April 29 in the highest-level contact between the two sides since 1949.
Taiwanese President Chen has accused China of trying to use Soong's visit to influence an upcoming Taiwanese election.
On Saturday, Taiwanese are to elect delegates to an assembly that will vote on proposed reforms including whether to allow public referendums to amend the island's constitution. Beijing fears that could lead to a public vote on Taiwanese independence. -
These Commies go behind Taiwan's back and sign an MOU with those despicable people at WHO.
"The memorandum, signed by China and the WHO Secretariat last Saturday, stipulates that Taiwan has to apply for the WHO's technical assistance through China and that all exchanges between Taiwan and the WHO have to be approved by Beijing."
Ah Bian is correct, never trust the Dirty Mainlanders , totally untrustworthy lot .
As more of this is coming out, All that rubbish Lien and Soong were saying about how they came to an uinderstanding with Hu is all going down the Toilet. They are coming out like real stupid people. Idiots of the highest order.
Power to Ah Bian .
The PRC talks about Autonomy for the ROC if there is unification but look whats happening,no unificaton but these guys just can't keep their hands off, same as in HK.
Now they also want HK to fly PRC Flags.even though HK -SAR has it's own. Autonomy for HK for 50 years.What a joke.
Bigger joke is all those people who keep saying One Country Two system is working
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It's working reasonably well for Hong Kong. For Taiwan, I agree it is not going to work as the Taiwanese have a choice, unlike HK ppl.
Bigger joke is all those people who keep saying One Country Two system is working
As long as cross-straits relationship remains stable, I believe it will benefit both sides to maintain status quo. Both China and Taiwan will prosper due to closer economic and cultural integration. Further, and more importantly this allows the time and provides the incentive for China to open up further. China will unavoidably be moved along the path towards greater accountability, rule of law and ultimately, to democratise their political institutions.
IMO, whether to reunify or not should be left to future generations to freely decide for themselves. -
1C2S is working. Question is what sort of system that works for greater China ? Will DPP's pro-independence a solution to end all ? Is that a win-win situation ? You have a better suggestion than those commies ?Originally posted by crazyazn:Bigger joke is all those people who keep saying One Country Two system is working -
don't think the taiwanese care anymore. Now attention is turned to the saga between the late Ni Min Ran and Xia Yi. One Taiwanese and the other shanghainese, still the cross straits relationship. Mainland chinese and taiwanese chinese cannot be separated. So please find a solution that makes both happy, don't just say which one doesn't work, or don't trust who.Originally posted by crazyazn:..........
Bigger joke is all those people who keep saying One Country Two system is working -
So please find a solution that makes both happy,
In the recent legislative election, the Taiwanese have voted for DPP and the message is clear. The majority don't want reunification, at least, not at the moment.
IMO, there won't be a solution that makes both sides happy. The "solution" which will prevail for some time into the future, will be status quo.
It will make both sides least unhappy. -
i think that one day one of the china leaders will realise it's stupid for this to carry on and all will go well
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The turn out rate of the last election was less than 30% and the real loser was Soong. The majority of a minority does not tell the whole story.Originally posted by suntze:In the recent legislative election, the Taiwanese have voted for DPP and the message is clear. The majority don't want reunification, at least, not at the moment.
IMO, there won't be a solution that makes both sides happy. The "solution" which will prevail for some time into the future, will be status quo.
It will make both sides least unhappy.
To me, what the people says is that they are not interested in voting anymore and they believe the outcome, whatever it is, will not make any difference.
Status quo, for the moment, seems to be the best. -
You obviously have very little knowledge of HongKong. When Asian Financial crisis struck HK in 1997,Originally posted by crazyazn:Bigger joke is all those people who keep saying One Country Two system is working
1.Properties prices went down. Shenzhen and other Chinese southern cities grew stronger and seriously threaten their position. Many HongKongers now go to these places to purchase real estate properties.
2.Ports in Guangzhou, Zhanjing etc are taking away HK business.
3.Taiwanese can now travel to China via Macau, therefore reduce dependancy on HK airports.
4.HK have to continue to depend on trade, services and finance without manufacturing.
5.Shanghai threatening their position as asia's financial center.
With so much against them, HK has actually done very well.
If u ask me, the biggest joke is on Taiwan. Ever since Ah Bian came into power, their economy is going downhill. Unemployment rate is soaring. As a result their crime rate is also skyrocketing. Read here:
http://www.taiwanheadlines.gov.tw/20010510/20010510o1.html
More and more Taiwanese are losing confidence in the current administration and are migrating elsewhere. Here's the related article:
http://atimes.com/atimes/China/FF30Ad04.html -
There are several reasons for the super-low turn out. The election for the National Assembly was the first ever to ask the voters to vote for party and not individual, adding on to the confusion is the amount of candidates and the lack of education and pre-election promotion. Because of lack of education, many Taiwanese do not know the importance of this election and do not know why they should vote. Finally, the weather on that day was horrendous in many areas of Taiwan, certain parts actually experiences landslides and mudslides. Of course, it can also be said that Taiwanese have been going to the polls too often, which, ironically, is what this National Assembly is charged to change. The proposed changes to the Constitution for the Assembly to consider includes, among others:Originally posted by sgdiehard:The turn out rate of the last election was less than 30% and the real loser was Soong. The majority of a minority does not tell the whole story.
To me, what the people says is that they are not interested in voting anymore and they believe the outcome, whatever it is, will not make any difference.
Status quo, for the moment, seems to be the best.- Include Referendum in the Constitution
Half the size of Parliament to 113 members
Redraw constituencies and change electoral method to 1 MP in 1 constituency and 2 votes each voter
Lengthen MPs' term of office from 3 to 4 years so as to make elections happen only every 2 years
Put future cases of impeachment of President and/or Vice President forward to the Judiciary
Your first link is outdated, it is article written in 2001, that's like 4 years. Unemployment rate and crime rates as well as economy definitely have ample time to change in 4 years.Originally posted by Blueray:You obviously have very little knowledge of HongKong. When Asian Financial crisis struck HK in 1997,
1.Properties prices went down. Shenzhen and other Chinese southern cities grew stronger and seriously threaten their position. Many HongKongers now go to these places to purchase real estate properties.
2.Ports in Guangzhou, Zhanjing etc are taking away HK business.
3.Taiwanese can now travel to China via Macau, therefore reduce dependancy on HK airports.
4.HK have to continue to depend on trade, services and finance without manufacturing.
5.Shanghai threatening their position as asia's financial center.
With so much against them, HK has actually done very well.
If u ask me, the biggest joke is on Taiwan. Ever since Ah Bian came into power, their economy is going downhill. Unemployment rate is soaring. As a result their crime rate is also skyrocketing. Read here:
http://www.taiwanheadlines.gov.tw/20010510/20010510o1.html
More and more Taiwanese are losing confidence in the current administration and are migrating elsewhere. Here's the related article:
http://atimes.com/atimes/China/FF30Ad04.html
Your 2nd article describes how Taiwanese gold rush to China. Isn't it the same for many other Asian and even non-Asian countries? Many countries are rushing to China, not just Taiwan. People choose to migrate for a variety of reasons, not just because they're losing confidence in Bian's govt. -
[quote]http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=U&start=2&q=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL%3Fd%3Dww2010.i.taiwan040823&e=9707
August 23, 2004 - Southeast Asian nations are forced to pick sides in the conflict between China and Taiwan
Singapore will support China and Australia will support Taiwan in a conflict between China and Taiwan. (23-Aug-2004) SummaryIncreasing tension between China and Taiwan is forcing Southeast Asian nations to pick sides between the two countries. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong says that the Taiwanese are ignorant and naïve with respect to Beijing's intentions, and that Taiwan will be destroyed no matter who wins. Australian PM John Howard promises to be a "reliable ally" who will support America in a war with China over Taiwan.
Beijing was outraged when Singapore's Lee Hsien Loong visited Taiwan earlier this month, just before he was sworn in as the new Prime Minister.
Southeast Asia
As a result, Lee had to reassure the Chinese in a nationally televised National Day Rally speech on Sunday that Singapore supports the Beijing's "One China" policy, and that it would side with China if China attacks Taiwan in retaliation for any push for independence.
America expressed concern a few days ago when Australia's Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said, in a visit to Beijing, that Australia was not bound to help the U.S. defend Taiwan.
Prime Minister John Howard came to Downer's "aid" on Friday by saying, "America has no more reliable ally than Australia and I am not ashamed to say that. We have a separate, strong, growing relationship with China and it is not in Australia's interests for there to be conflict between America and China and I will do everything I can, and Mr Downer will do everything he can, to discourage that ever occurring." He added that Australia's existing treaty obligations are clear: "We have to consult and come to each other's aid when we're under attack or involved in conflict. That's the situation."
The fact that both these nations are being forced to announced their intentions in the face of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is just a sign of the growing level of tension.
Singapore
It's very rare for any politician to speak frankly. That's why I want to quote Singapore PM Lee's comments on China and Taiwan at length, and comment on them.
A move by Taiwan towards independence is neither in Singapore's nor the region's interest. If Taiwan goes for independence, Singapore will not recognise it. In fact, no Asian country will recognise it. Nor will European countries.
It's not entirely certain that no Asian or European country will recognize Taiwan. In Europe, Britain will probably join America and Australia in doing so. In Asia, India may do so as well.
For other Southeast Asia countries, the situation is very complicated, much more complicated than it is for Singapore.
As you can see from the adjoining map, Singapore is a tiny island in the midst of Malaysia and Indonesia. However, there are few things that are not apparent from the map.
Singapore has little difficult siding with China, because the Singapore is 80% Chinese and is very wealthy, the wealthiest country, per capita, in the region. Singapore has economic ties to both China and Taiwan, but if forced to choose will side with China for both ethnic and economic reasons.
But Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are quite different.
Malaysia is 24% Chinese, the Philippines are 1.5% Chinese, and Indonesia is 3% Chinese, and yet the Chinese control most of the economy in all three countries. The ethnic Chinese are the wealthy business and landowners in all three countries, and the indigenous populations, including many Muslims, are poor, often extremely poor, and act as servants of the Chinese. As described in Yale Professor Amy Chua's book, World on Fire, the level of hatred for the wealthy Chinese in these countries is quite high.
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines have not yet been forced to take sides in the conflict between China and Taiwan, and so Lee may have felt free to speak for them in his speech, but his claim is by no means certain.
China will fight. Win or lose, Taiwan will be devastated.
He's certainly correct in this statement. China and America will fight over Taiwan, and as I'm told they say in Africa, "When the elephants fight, it's the grass that gets trampled."
Unfortunately, I met only very few Taiwanese leaders who understood this. The problem is that it will not just be Taiwan that will be badly damaged. It will be a grave setback for the whole region.
This is an interesting statement from the point of view of Generational Dynamics. The great Chinese civil war fought between Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek ended in 1949, and as long as the people who lived through that war were alive, none of them would risk another war between China and Taiwan. But the last generation of people who lived through that war have been disappearing (dying or retiring) in the last few years.
Today, the President of Taiwan is Chen Shui-bian, born in 1950. He has been a leader of the movement for Taiwan independence for decades. As President, Chen has announced that he will amend the Constitution in 2008 to move towards independence.
I came back from Taiwan more troubled than before I went. The ruling party, ... is preoccupied with domestic politics. .... The [opposition party] is preoccupied with challenging the results of the presidential election.... Neither side has had time to think about Taiwan's longer-term future, how to manage relations with China, how best to reconcile the aspirations of the Taiwanese people with the realities of their international position.
There is a stronger Taiwanese identity emerging. More people are speaking in the Taiwanese dialect, or hollow whey. Before Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian became presidents, most Taiwanese people considered themselves Chinese. Now many think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese. Some [ruling party] leaders told me that they believe a majority of people now support an independent Taiwan and that this has become a mainstream view.
This is exactly the kind of behavior that Generational Dynamics predicts. The generation of leaders in Taiwan today are "generational prophets" that will lead the country into the next major war. They do this by being naïve and uninformed about the danger they're in, and then by overreacting when they're suprised by unexpected threats. That's what's in store for Taiwan in the next few years.
The Taiwanese media are a free-wheeling and parochial lot. They thrive on juicy news and speculation. They chased me around when I was in Taiwan. I wanted to go out of my hotel for breakfast, to eat doujiang youtiao in a coffee shop, but I could not. The newspapers cover almost exclusively domestic news, with very little or no reporting of the international situation - nothing on Iraq, North Korea or the US elections.
This paragraph is close to my heart, because it's also so true of Americans. Younger generations of Americans, born after World War II, are as ignorant of world affairs as the Taiwanese are, and the American media doesn't help. If you've read this far in this article, then you know more about Taiwan and China than 99.9% of other Americans, even Chinese-Americans.
So I do not sense that the Taiwanese people appreciate the international strategic environment, how preoccupied the US is with Iraq and the war on terror, and how interdependent the US and China are becoming. Many do not realise how rapidly China is transforming itself, and how major powers in the world are all repositioning themselves in response to a rising China.
Many Taiwanese believe China will not use force on Taiwan, even if it moves towards independence. They are wrong. When I visited China in May, my sense was that the cross-strait issue was at the top of their agenda and that China is absolutely serious. To China, the 2008 Olympics is a small matter. But preventing Taiwanese independence is crucial to China. -
The Taiwanese press speculated that I had visited Taiwan to play a mediator's role between China and Taiwan. It showed they had not understood the situation. I am in no position to play any such role and have no desire to do so. The issue between China and Taiwan is not a misunderstanding that can be resolved by the good offices of an intermediary. It is a fundamental and deep contradiction which will require great skill and restraint on both sides to manage.
There is therefore a real risk of miscalculation and mishap. If a war breaks out across the strait, we will be forced to choose between the two sides. As a friend of both sides, any decision will be painful. But if the conflict is provoked by Taiwan, then Singapore cannot support Taiwan.
It's very unusual for any country's leaders to be so frank as to come close to predicting international war, but that's what Lee is doing, and it's why I wanted to quote his remarks at length.
Australia
When Australian PM John Howard said a couple of days ago that treaty obligations required Australia to side with American if Taiwan is attacked, he was referring to the ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand and the United States) defense security treaty for the Pacific region, signed in 1951.
At that time, Australia was fighting alongside America in the Korean War. At that time, many people believed that World War II could have been prevented if Hitler had been stopped earlier, and the Korean War, and later the Vietnam War, were fought in order to stop communism and prevent a new world war. The ANZUS treaty was signed with that intention in mind.
New Zealand is no longer an active member of ANZUS ever since 1986, when New Zealand banned the entry of US Navy ships into their ports in the belief that they were carrying nuclear weapons or were nuclear-powered. However, ANZUS and the alliance with America has continued to be a foundation of its defense policy.
When Australian Foreign Minister Downer told his Beijing hosts on Wednesday that the ANZUS treaty did not bind Australia to help America defend Taiwan, he suggested that the treaty obligated Australia only if China attacks America.
When John Howard corrected Down by saying, "We are a very close ally of the United States and a faithful ANZUS partner," he was saying that Australia is fully committed to its terms. Howard also said, in a radio interview, that the obligations under the ANZUS treaty were clear and required consultation and to come to the other's aid should it be attacked or became involved in conflict.
Summary
As I described in my discussion of Operation Summer Pulse 04, and Taiwan's Wild Election Battle, the generational changes going on in China and Taiwan are causing Taiwan to become more independent, and are causing China to become more and belligerent towards even small moves by Taiwan towards independence.
Most Americans (and even, according to Singapore's PM Lee, most Taiwanese) believe that China will not oppose Taiwanese independence.
Why should they? Taiwan is already pretty independent. What difference would it make to China if Taiwan became fully independent. Who cares?
China cares. They have to deal with separatist movements in their Western provinces, and not standing up to Taiwan would give those provinces a green light.
Even without that, this is a matter of great principle to the Chinese. They believe, as a matter of national honor, that Taiwan must be part of China. An independent Taiwan would be as unacceptable to China as an independent Alaska would be to America.
The trends in China and Taiwan that are leading to war are not receding. Instead, as generations of cautious older people who remember the 1949 civil war are replaced by new generations of younger people who have no idea what war is like, the trends toward war are swelling. A war with China would also lead to anti-Chinese civil wars in China, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. It's very hard to see how full scale war in the Pacific region can be avoided in the next few years. -
I am living in China right now. I have met a lot of Taiwanese in Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou etc. Most of these Taiwanese I met are in their 20s , 30s and 40s. When I ask them the reasons for coming to the mainland, most of them will tell me it is bcos they are fed up with the politics in Taiwan and the other most common reason is bcos they cannot find jobs in Taiwan and have to go elsewhere for work. What does this tells u of the employment market in Taiwan?Originally posted by davidmars:Your first link is outdated, it is article written in 2001, that's like 4 years. Unemployment rate and crime rates as well as economy definitely have ample time to change in 4 years.
Your 2nd article describes how Taiwanese gold rush to China. Isn't it the same for many other Asian and even non-Asian countries? Many countries are rushing to China, not just Taiwan. People choose to migrate for a variety of reasons, not just because they're losing confidence in Bian's govt.
As for the 2nd article, it clearly states that the reasons for Taiwanese migration to China is not just bcos of the $$$, it is also bcos of the fact that Taiwanese are becoming more and more pessimistic of the situation in Taiwan. Quoting from the 2nd article:
Apart from businessmen, the white-collar bourgeoisie, who feel pessimistic about Taiwan, also are joining the increasing exodus.
The 2nd article is barely a year old. -
Originally posted by davidmars:
No dispute on the reasons but whatever the reasons, the result of an election with a turnout rate of 23% cannot be used to conclude that "..........the Taiwanese have voted for DPP and the message is clear. The majority don't want reunification, at least, not at the moment. "
[b]
There are several reasons for the super-low turn out. The election for the National Assembly was the first ever to ask the voters to vote for party and not individual, adding on to the confusion is the amount of candidates and the lack of education and pre-election promotion. Because of lack of education, many Taiwanese do not know the importance of this election and do not know why they should vote. Finally, the weather on that day was horrendous in many areas of Taiwan, certain parts actually experiences landslides and mudslides. .......b] -
No obviously One Country Two system isn't working for HK on long run let alone the autonomy, if not there wouldn't be so many problems ever since they had lost the British dependency, its the policy we're talking about not financial crisis, much of its economic importance owes to its excellent transport links plus well mannerly administration. The total area of HK is barely 400 sq miles of islands, its clear from the beginning that the majority of the land-mass coastal cities are outset to take over it ever since the 80s under programme of modernizations begun under Mao but accelerated in the late 70s, the financial crisis merely accelerated the process.Originally posted by Blueray:You obviously have very little knowledge of HongKong. When Asian Financial crisis struck HK in 1997,
1.Properties prices went down. Shenzhen and other Chinese southern cities grew stronger and seriously threaten their position. Many HongKongers now go to these places to purchase real estate properties.
2.Ports in Guangzhou, Zhanjing etc are taking away HK business.
3.Taiwanese can now travel to China via Macau, therefore reduce dependancy on HK airports.
4.HK have to continue to depend on trade, services and finance without manufacturing.
5.Shanghai threatening their position as asia's financial center.
With so much against them, HK has actually done very well. -
[quote]Originally posted by Blueray:
I am living in China right now. .
[quote]Are you a shanghaiese or what? which part of china are you living in. -
Care to explain what policy you are talking about?Originally posted by sting_760:No obviously One Country Two system isn't working for HK on long run let alone the autonomy, if not there wouldn't be so many problems ever since they had lost the British dependency, its the policy we're talking about not financial crisis, much of its economic importance owes to its excellent transport links plus well mannerly administration. The total area of HK is barely 400 sq miles of islands, its clear from the beginning that the majority of the land-mass coastal cities are outset to take over it ever since the 80s under programme of modernizations begun under Mao but accelerated in the late 70s, the financial crisis merely accelerated the process.
Since when did Mao ever start a program of modernizations for the coastal cities in China to take over HK? and how did the financial crisis accelerated the process? -
It did, at least under Mao era, you don't have to underline all of which you're unaware. In the Jan 1975, Zhou Enlai speaking before the 4th National People's Congress, outlined a program of "Four Modernizations" for the four sectors of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology. Therefore, it is not without reason that pictures of improvements in these four sectors increased significantly during 1975 to 1978. After the Mao passed away in 1976, and the Gang of Four under arrest, Deng had succeeded in having adopted his plans for the urgent modernization of the economy in December 1978 at Third Plenum. This strategy, the Four Modernizations (of agriculture, industry, national defense and science & technology) was based on a blueprint that Zhou Enlai had drawn up in the early 70s.Originally posted by sgdiehard:Care to explain what policy you are talking about?
Since when did Mao ever start a program of modernizations for the coastal cities in China to take over HK? and how did the financial crisis accelerated the process?