Originally posted by orwell76:
archon1234,
Oil is priced exclusively in USD. Ever wonder what are the implications?
Oil importing countries need to export goods to earn USD to finance their purchases of oil.
The reality is that the strength of the dollar since 1945 rests on being the international reserve currency for global oil transactions (i.e., "petro-dollar"). The U.S. prints hundreds of billions of these fiat petro-dollars, which are then used by nation states to purchase oil and energy from OPEC producers . These petro-dollars are then re-cycled from OPEC back into the U.S. via Treasury Bills or other dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. stocks, real estate, etc. The recycling of petro-dollars is the price the U.S. has extracted since 1973 from oil-producing countries for U.S. tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel.
Dollar reserves must be invested in U.S. assets which produces a capital-accounts surplus for the U.S. economy. Despite poor market performance during the past year, U.S. stock valuation is still at a 25-year high and trading at a 56 percent premium compared with emerging markets. The U.S. capital-account surplus finances the U.S. trade deficit.
Since it is the U.S. that prints the petro-dollars, they control the flow of oil. Period. When oil is denominated in dollars through U.S. state action and the dollar is the only fiat currency for trading in oil, an argument can be made that the U.S. essentially owns the world's oil for free.
The current high oil price is an attempt to wipe out the high current account defecits that the US has. Higher price of oil, more US dollars need to be used to spent purchasing oil.
You may be too simple in your analysis.

How in the hack can you wipe up current deficits when capital growth is largest in overseas growth markets?

How can you wipe out current deficits when you are already addicted to highly competitive China products?
Higher oil price may increase cost to the China, in this instance, but any boost to capital will literally be channelled back to the same old growth area via
more investments and
more imports, increasing the reliance on China
in an instance. And such investments will be hit due to global slowdown in terms of spendings by the absurd oil price. And what will happen to the US dollars?

You ain't strengthening greenbacks with higher oil prices, you are pressuring it to weaken even further. The nature of the greenbacks' strength is not on fundamentals, but on high transactions on a huge multiplier effect. What will happen if Oil price is hurting US investments worldwide, especially in growth areas such as China?
You are hence correct to say the capital surpluses is financing current deficits, but here be reminded that it's always the growth markets that supports the needed investment growth rates (and hence capital surpluses), hurt them, and you gotta increase the price to $1000 a barrel.

It's a vicious cycle, because while US controls the oil, other growth areas controls US's investments' outcome. Hence, indirectly investment vacuums such as China and India determine the fate of US's captial surpluses. And US needs these growth areas more than these areas need those Oil at such high prices. They were poor and developing, but US is sitting on a huge massive bubble and more demands for cheaper imports in their shops.
You can say US people'd spend much more on such cheap products and investment out there than people would on Oil the US controls. It's either gonna hurt US investments or bloat US appetitide for consumption of imports. Neither is going to be good for either accounts.
And even US population ain't gonna like it when they have to pay so much for the petrols in or not in US$.
See? So what happen when Oil Price does go down? It's gonna hurt no one but US$ more heavily.