http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17517118%255E12250,00.htmlUS seeks new path to China
Editor-at-Large Paul Kelly from Washington
December 10, 2005
CONCEALED by the Iraq crisis, the Bush administration guided by Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick is engaged in potentially the most far-reaching redefinition of US policy towards China for many years.
In a 45-minute interview with Inquirer in his State Department office in Washington, DC, Zoellick repudiates any suggestion of containment as a basis for US policy. Zoellick throws into the dustbin of history the notion of containment, Cold War parallels or 19th-century balance-of-power concepts as the foundation for Washington's management of China's rise.
The Zoellick interview offers a new framework for the US's approach to China: that of shared stakeholder in the international system calling on China to accept the responsibilities as well as the benefits of the global system.
This is fresh US thinking and language about China. It has the potential to create a new platform for US-China relations. It should be music to Australia's ears, and it raises another possibility forgotten in Australia: that America's approach towards China is far more sophisticated than Australia's.
Zoellick's message is that "the US welcomes a confident, peaceful and prosperous China". He offers China an invitation "to work with us to shape the future international system".
For China's leaders, this is an invitation and a challenge. For the US political system, it presents China as an opportunity, not a threat. Zoellick's aim is to change the mind-set of the US-China debate; he is explicit about seeking a transformation.
While Zoellick would never concede this, his China vision stands as an alternative to the portrait of military rivalry depicted by Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, notably in his June 4 Singapore speech.
Rumsfeld and Zoellick, typical of the Bush administration, offer competing stories about China. But this term the State Department, under Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, is more formidable and Zoellick, officially described as Rice's "principal deputy, adviser and alter ego" has the running on China.
Zoellick's concept was first advanced in a September21 speech before the national committee on US-China relations and was expanded upon in his December6 interview with this paper. It is already the subject of intense debate within China's system and among its leaders.
Zoellick's framework dominates the US-China dialogue, inaugurated in Beijing last July and which had its second session in Washington last week involving Zoellick and China's executive vice-foreign minister, Dai Bingguo.
"What I tried to do in the [September] speech was set out why the Cold War logic of containment no longer applies," Zoellick says. "In fact, it's in direct contradiction with our efforts to integrate China. But I also take this a step further. I say that 19th-century balance of power logic also doesn't conform with the current process of integration.
"However, I point out to the Chinese that it is natural that as a rising power they will prompt questions about their intentions and if they are not successful in dealing with that, then it will lead to hedging strategies.
"So I'm not setting out a view that is all benign. I'm trying to engage the Chinese very seriously: on the one hand paying them the respect they're due for what they've accomplished but, second, urging them to recognise the larger responsibilities they now have in the international system."
Zoellick says the US must "encourage China to become a responsible stakeholder". This means working "with us to sustain the international system". It is a framework to encompass the entire US-China debate.
"Our discussions [with China] focus on how this concept can be applied across a whole range of policy issues: economic, energy, security, nuclear non-proliferation, terrorism and regional security. The challenge of the dialogue is not only to engage people at a conceptual level but start to connect it to operational implications," Zoellick says.
Highlighting this symbolism, Zoellick plans to take his Chinese counterpart Dai to former US president Franklin Roosevelt's Hyde Park home in New York.
"FDR was associated with developing a concert of powers after World War II," Zoellick says, pointing to the UN and Bretton Woods as examples. "What I am suggesting to the Chinese is that rather than keeping China contained or at arm's length or in balance, we are trying to urge China to play a role in this system of systems that has evolved."
For Zoellick, the threat to the US comes not from China but from Islamist terrorists. It comes from failing states, not a rising Asia.
"China does not want a conflict with the US," he says. "In my view the real security threat today is one of Islamic radical terrorism, part linked to weapons of mass destruction."
To highlight the real threat, Zoellick invokes the published letter intercepted by US intelligence from al-Qa'ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to his terrorist commander in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and says: "It is a striking document that gives you insights into how these people view the world.
"Their goal is to set up a new caliphate, throw out all the infidels - that's us - throw out all the apostates, that's most of the Muslims in Southeast Asia. Now, this view doesn't accept the international system that exists. But that's not China's view."
He rejects the claim that China today is the Soviet Union of the 1940s. "I believe they are unlike the Soviet Union," he says. "China is not trying to challenge the fundamental system. The Soviet Union never accepted international partners in capitalism. The Soviet Union had a notion of imperial expansion. China has not taken that strategy."
Zoellick points to prominent Chinese such as chairman of the China Reform Forum, Zheng Bijan, who argues (Foreign Affairs, September-October) that China's strategy depends on peace. "Contrary to China challenging the international system, China is using the international system as part of its development path," Zoellick says.