Chinese President Hu Jintao got what he wanted out of his meeting with his U.S. counterpart, George W. Bush: the respect due a full-fledged power on the world stage. What Bush gained may not be known for months or even years.
Bush's public remarks yesterday reflected acceptance of China's emergence as an economic and political heavyweight and the U.S.'s need for China's cooperation to reach foreign-policy goals.
The U.S. president raised no new demands for quick Chinese action to resolve differences over trade, currency and human rights -- and he got no promises. Both leaders, after acknowledging their differences, spoke mostly of cooperation, using that word in some form 36 times in three public events.
``From Hu's perspective, President Bush's rhetoric made clear that he regards China as a country of great weight in the international arena and regards the U.S-China relationship as extremely important,'' said Kenneth Lieberthal, a political science professor at the University of Michigan who headed China policy for President Bill Clinton's National Security Council.
Bush, 59, who began his presidency talking about China as a ``competitor,'' has changed his tone as the U.S. becomes increasingly reliant on China's economic cooperation and help in defusing nuclear confrontations with Iran and North Korea. ``We don't agree on everything, but we're able to discuss our disagreements in a spirit of friendship and cooperation,'' he said yesterday.
Even before Hu arrived in the U.S. Tuesday, administration officials said they expected no breakthroughs on the issues of most concerns in the U.S. Congress. Lawmakers in both parties are threatening to adopt protectionist measures unless China revalues its currency and shrinks a $202 billion annual trade surplus with the U.S., and they want Bush to demand that China expand religious and political freedom.
The Long View
Faced with the reality that Hu wasn't about to bend, Bush chose yesterday to emphasize the long view. ``We have made progress in building a relationship that is candid and cooperative,'' Bush said.
That meshes well with the Chinese perspective. It will take decades to move the country's 1.3 billion people from the ranks of the poor to the prosperous, analysts and officials said, and Chinese leaders want the U.S. to have a longer horizon for change.
``Some people today want to see a quick fix to the trade imbalance,'' said Dennis Wilder, acting director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council. ``If there was one, believe us, we would have tried to get that by now with the Chinese. But in the new global economy, there is no quick fix.''
Democracy and Modernization
Hu, 63, in his remarks on arriving at the White House, stressed the need for both countries to benefit from ``enhanced interactions and cooperation'' and to not let past disputes stand in the way. ``We should stay firmly rooted in the present while looking ahead to the future,'' he said.
Hu offered some words of encouragement to U.S. officials who want to see China move faster toward democracy, saying that China's modernization depends on such a shift.
``Does it mean that the Chinese are beginning to understand that there's a linkage between stability in a society and the freedoms? I think we're starting to see some glimmers,'' Wilder said.
Besides seeking Chinese cooperation on economic and human rights issues, Bush wants to leverage China's economic clout to help with concerns in other regions of the world. ``China is an important voice in international affairs,'' Bush said.
The president wants China, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, to join the U.S. and Europe in sending a ``common message'' through the UN to Iran about the need to curb its nuclear ambitions. The administration is also leaning on China to take the lead in getting North Korea to give up its nuclear arms program.
Resolve Through Diplomacy
Hu didn't dismiss those hopes, while offering nothing new. He indicated a general willingness ``to work with the U.S. side and other parties concerned to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue'' with Iran and North Korea through diplomacy, while giving no indication that China would drop its longstanding opposition to UN sanctions against Iran.
In these matters, as with the economic issues, Bush must seek to nurture a cooperative relationship in hopes that it will pay off in the long term.
Pursuing that goal, Bush mentioned shared ``strategic'' interests four times in his public remarks. Evan Medeiros, a China specialist at the Rand Corp. in Arlington, Virginia, who attended the White House event, said the Chinese see the use of such language by a U.S. president as important ``because it's high-level recognition from the global superpower of their status as a rising great power.''
Engagement Necessary
John Frisbie, president of the Washington-based U.S.-China Business Council, said the administration recognizes that it must engage with China. ``Clearly, at some point not too far down the line these are going to be the two largest economies in the world,'' he said.
If Bush is forced to wait, the Chinese leaders are also in a position of having to show patience. While China's economic and military power is growing, it still ranks far below that of the U.S. For example, China's military budget -- the second-largest in the world at $81.5 billion last year, according to U.S. estimates -- still pales in comparison to U.S. military spending of $518.1 billion in 2005.
``Someday, perhaps, China is going to ask the Americans why the Pacific Ocean should be an American lake,'' said Thomas Metzger, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. ``But right now and for the foreseeable future, they are not going to raise that question.''
`Responsible Stakeholder'
The Bush administration's view of what it seeks from China was recently summed up by Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who called on China to be a ``responsible stakeholder'' on matters of trade and democracy.
In his toast to Bush and other U.S. officials before yesterday's lunch -- not the state dinner the Chinese delegation had wanted -- Hu picked up on Zoellick's language, then turned it to his own uses.
``China and the United States are not only stakeholders, but they should also be constructive partners, be parties of constructive cooperation,'' Hu said.
``That's Hu's polite way of saying that this relationship is a two-way street,'' said Lieberthal.