Originally posted by Taiwanpolitics:
Chen shui bian won't win anymore .
He served his second term now , he step down in 2008 then other ppl will replace him .
The most possible ppl to replace him is mayor ma .
Asfor using unethical methods to win votes , he was shot be4 election day then he won the 2004 presidential election by a narrow margin .
being was believed to have altered the election results .
Taiwan economics really sux !!!
It's very obvious .
unemployment hi .
economic growth low and all that .
Chen runs afoul of U.S. pressing for independence
2006/5/14
By Peter Enav TAIPEI, AP
Taiwan's leader shook the hand of U.S. first lady Laura Bush at a ceremony this week in Costa Rica. Moments later, he approached her again and chatted briefly as his aide snapped a commemorative photo.
It's good that President Chen Shui-bian has a picture of the meeting because it might be the closest he'll get to a member of the American inner circle for quite some time.
Washington has been signaling its strong disapproval of Chen's efforts to encourage separateness from China on this island of 23 million people, 160 kilometers (100 miles) off the China coast.
Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949. Since then China has made it clear that any moves to formalize Taiwan's de facto independence would be met by force.
Lately American patience with Chen has started to wear thin. The trouble for the Taiwanese leader began on Feb. 27 when he scrapped a government body responsible for facilitating the eventual unification with the mainland.
The move provoked an angry reaction in Beijing, which saw it as part of Chen's deliberate drift toward independence. It also alarmed Washington, where the prospect of being dragged into a war across the volatile Taiwan Strait is viewed as a major security nightmare.
Testifying before the House International Affairs Committee on Wednesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick made it clear that Chen's decision on the unification body was endangering American lives.
"We want to be supportive of Taiwan, while we're not encouraging those that try to move toward independence," he said. "Independence means war. And that means American soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines."
Another apparent sign of Washington's annoyance was its refusal to allow the Taiwanese president a stop in a key U.S. city as he traveled to Latin America, where he met Mrs. Bush. Chen has been allowed to make such stops before, and his inability to get permission this time was viewed as a major snub in Taiwan.
Washington decided to let Chen a short transit stop in Alaska, but the Taiwanese leader declined.
U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack reacted with icy indifference to Chen's decision. "I understand ... that he has chosen not to travel," McCormack said, conspicuously failing to mention Chen by name. "That's his decision."
Philip Yang of Taipei's National Taiwan University says a key question now is whether Chen has already burned his bridges with the United States, or whether he can somehow redeem himself during his final two years in office.
"It's still very hard to tell," he said. "But definitely the bridge for him is narrow."
Yang believes that Chen's problems are largely of his own making, the result of his constant attempts to push the envelope on Taiwanese independence, instead of understanding his dependence on American goodwill.
"The Bush administration may have started as the most pro-Taiwanese administration ever," he said. "But it's certainly not that way now."
Chen and his government have naturally tried to put the best face on their relations with Washington, blaming intrusive Chinese pressure for the American posture in limiting Chen to a transit stop in relatively isolated Anchorage.
But no less a light than Zoellick disagreed with them, suggesting that Chen had broken a promise to the U.S. in scrapping the mainland unification body.
He also denied that Chinese pressure had in any way influenced the American decisions on Chen's itinerary.
"We make our own decisions," he said in his House testimony. "We don't clear them with China. We don't negotiate them with China."
"It'll be extremely challenging for relations between Taipei and Washington to improve" during the remaining two years of Chen's presidency, said Lin Chong-Pin, president of the Foundation on International and Cross Strait Studies think-tank.
In an apparent slight, the United States offered to let Chen transit in remote Alaska or Hawaii this month instead of New York while on his way home from Latin America. Chen rejected the offer and was hailed a hero by some for standing up to Washington.
While Chen put on a brave face and tried to assure the public that the row with the United States would not impact bilateral relations, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick appeared to harden parameters for ties.
Zoellick told a U.S. congressional hearing last week that Taiwan will "keep hitting into a wall" if it continues to test the "one China" policy under which Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
Zoellick also warned that Taiwan independence meant war with China risking the lives of American soldiers as he defended the administration against criticism by U.S. lawmakers for treating Chen is a "disgraceful" way.
"Washington's displeasure has been mainly targeted at Chen Shui-bian," said Lin, a one-time deputy defence minister and formerly one of Taiwan's top China policy makers.
Some saw the candid warning from Zoellick as a pre-emptive attempt to stop Chen from crossing China's red line -- formalizing Taiwan's de facto independence when amending the constitution in the run-up to the 2008 elections.
"The United States is worried Taiwan will move towards independence when it amends its constitution," said Lin, the political scientist.
Lin speculated that the White House appearance of Chinese President Hu Jintao last month may have prompted the United States to deny President Chen a stop in New York to avoid hurting U.S.-China ties.
Chen's woes began, analysts say, when he ignored U.S. warnings and held a landmark referendum alongside presidential elections in 2004. China's parliament passed the Anti-Secession Law the next year mandating armed conflict in one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints.
Ignoring U.S. admonitions again, Chen scrapped a dormant but symbolic body and guidelines on eventual unification with China in February in what Lin, the former official, described as "the last straw that broke the camel's back."