Disneyland in Johor?
Laurence Lau
May 26, 06 12:49pm
Malaysiakini
Could Disneyland be headed for Malaysia? If market insiders in Kuala Lumpur are to be believed, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, now in Japan for a five-day working trip, will meet with officials from Oriental Land, the Japanese partner for Tokyo Disneyland, with the aim of bringing Disneyland to Nusajaya.
Nusajaya is a large ‘new township development’, or planned city, near the Second Link (a bridge between Malaysia and Singapore) in southern Malaysia's Johor state, just across the Johor Strait from Singapore.
Though no official statement has been issued by any of the governments or companies involved, the rumors were lent credence by the fact that officials from UEM World, the biggest landowner in Nusajaya, were said to be accompanying Abdullah. The prime minister's contingent also reportedly includes Azman
Mokhtar, the managing director of Khazanah, which is UEM World's largest shareholder.
Abdullah is said to have already met with top Disney officials early this month, when he was attending the World Congress for Information Technology 2006 in the United States. A source at a top-three regional brokerage familiar with the Disneyland-Nusajaya overture believes that Abdullah's team is in Tokyo to make a serious pitch, with sweeteners that may include offering Disney an internationally competitive package of incentives. Should the pitch be successful, any announcement of Disney making an entry into Malaysia would improve dramatically the values of land near Nusajaya.
While the Disney rumblings are still at the level of rumor, sources say the rumor has a high level of reliability and a decent chance of success. The reports raise several immediate issues.
First, it is believed that Disney will be more positive for the project going ahead if Malaysia can rope in the Japanese operator as a partner. Oriental Land has an excellent track record with the company; its first park in Urayasu, Chiba prefecture, which opened in 1983, and the later addition DisneySea are both still highly successful.
By engaging Oriental Land, Disney would have a higher chance of successful execution should the project get the go-ahead. Oriental Land's involvement would also ensure proper follow-through (execution) and a strict adherence to the firm's management style and operational culture. These issues, not just financial viability, are major concerns when it comes to the track record of Malaysian government-linked companies (GLCs), particularly given Disney's strong corporate culture.
A free ride
Second, the implications for the perpetual, sibling-rivalry-like competition between Singapore and Malaysia are another aspect worth exploring. Some say the Disney overtures could be a retaliatory move on Malaysia's part after the recent disastrous talks over the construction of a new bridge for the causeway between the two countries. Over the past 12 months, Singapore has hogged the limelight in terms of big tourism projects with its huge integrated resort/casino projects at two sites in Marina Bay and Sentosa Island.
The winning bidders for the two integrated resorts (IRs) paid a very steep price for their winning bids, but none managed to rope in Disney as partner, reportedly because Disney did not want to tarnish its wholesome image entering a partnership with a casino project. The likely winner for Marina Bay IR is likely to be either Harrah's or MGM, while Genting should get the Sentosa IR with Universal Studios as its partner.
A comparison between the Singapore IRs and the hypothesised Nusajaya Disney park is revealing. The winning IR bidders will have to cough up S$1.2 billion (US$758 million) for the Marina Bay IR and S$605 million for the Sentosa IR for the land alone. But should Disneyland decide to go to Nusajaya, chances are the land will be almost free. Not only that, a Disney park would benefit from tourists visiting the two IRs, in effect getting a free ride on Singapore's promotional efforts.
Of the two, the attrition impact would be greater on the Sentosa project, since its Universal Studios theme park would inevitably be competing with, and be compared with, Disneyland just a couple of hours away - no contest, many would say, especially considering that a Disney facility would be able to price its products and services a lot cheaper.
Third, a Nusajaya Disneyland would seem to have excellent prospects with regard to critical market mass and the availability of transportation services. Any viability study would reveal the same factors that already successfully justified the initiation of the Marina Bay and Sentosa IR projects.
In addition, there are two potential international landing strips in Johor, which would boost both the hypothetical park's prospects and those of such feeder airlines as AirAsia (the Kuala Lumpur-based low-cost carrier) and Malaysian Airlines.
AirAsia is already proving to be very successful in ferrying regional travelers at very attractive rates. Imagine the ability to offer routes from Phuket, Bangkok, Hat Yai (in southern Thailand), eastern Malaysia, Hong Kong, Bali or Jakarta to Kuala Lumpur or Johor Baru (Malaysia's second-largest city, adjacent to Singapore) for less than RM200 return ($55) - which is approximately AirAsia's current pricing structure.
Will benefit both
The availability of such low-cost air services could sway Disney's decision. Malaysia's population on its own is insufficient to justify a Disneyland, but the country's low-cost air connections and the additional traffic drawn from Singapore's IRs might be enough to seal the deal. One wonders whether AirAsia founder Tony Fernandes is also part of the Abdullah contingent - he should be.
Fourth, the chances of the project being realised are greater given that Disney holds strong cards in terms of negotiating with Malaysian authorities, and the company is liable to be attracted to Nusajaya since it would have a sharply reduced ‘cannibalising’ effect on the firm's existing parks. Nusajaya has a huge land area, big enough for five or six Disneylands with space for resorts and hotels.
Given that a Disney park would be crucial in giving Nusajaya the critical mass for success, Abdullah and UEM World would probably agree to most of Disney's requests - which might include free land, a waiver of the requirement for 30% bumiputra (ethnic Malay) holdings, tax incentives, and so on.
From Disney's standpoint, it is running out of room to grow after the opening of Hong Kong Disney last year. A Nusajaya Disney would be far enough away from the locations in Hong Kong, Tokyo and a proposed Shanghai park to capture the regional crowd without cannibalising the crowds at other regional Disneylands. It would be silly for Disney not to do the project.
In all probability, Singapore has inadvertently helped Malaysia to snare Disney for Nusajaya. However, the development would benefit both countries, and should not be used to score political points on either side of the Johor Strait.
LAURENCE LAU has more than 18 years of experience in business and finance. Born in Malaysia, he has worked in Sydney, Singapore, Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur. He was head of research for two securities firms and a portfolio manager for a UK firm. Article courtesy of Asia Times Online.
i think i do look forward to this.