Crisis for the Neo Cons in United States

• orwell76

  9 Nov 06, 16:56

  One thing for sure, 2007 will be an interesting year. The following speculation might seem disconnected from what is discussed in the thread, but the implications are immense.
  
  1)1987 Wall Street Crash
  2)1997 Asian Currency Crisis
  3)2007 End of the Petrodollar Hegemony?
  
  Democrats have gained control of both the House and the Senate in United States. This has upset the current status quo. Any pursuit of an exit strategy in Iraq, will worsen the decline of the US dollar.
  
  A declining US dollar will forced the Federal Reserve Bank to raise interest rates further.
  
  If United States is unable to establish a pro American Iraqi government that is able to secure the country before the US military exits, the world might be facing the biggest economic upheval.
  
  Should the oil rich parts of Iraq somehow fall under the control of Iran, Iran will effectively replace Saudi Arabia as the country holding the largest known reserve of oil. Naturally, Iran will call the shots in oil pricing in the oil bourses around the world. Iran has every intention of pricing of oil in Euros, to end the current mechanism of pricing oil in US dollars aka as the Petrodollar hegemony.
  
  United States will have to start repaying her national debt of 9 trillion dollars, as nations of the world will not hold oil as a reserve currency as it can no longer purchase oil.
  
  This is the nightmare scenario that the current US government faces and wish to avoid.
• pwnz0r

  9 Nov 06, 17:01

  Originally posted by orwell76:

  One thing for sure, 2007 will be an interesting year. The following speculation might seem disconnected from what is discussed in the thread, but the implications are immense.
  
  1)1987 Wall Street Crash
  2)1997 Asian Currency Crisis
  3)2007 End of the Petrodollar Hegemony?
  
  Democrats have gained control of both the House and the Senate in United States. This has upset the current status quo. Any pursuit of an exit strategy in Iraq, will worsen the decline of the US dollar.
  
  A declining US dollar will forced the Federal Reserve Bank to raise interest rates further.
  
  If United States is unable to establish a pro American Iraqi government that is able to secure the country before the US military exits, the world might be facing the biggest economic upheval.
  
  Should the oil rich parts of Iraq somehow fall under the control of Iran, Iran will effectively replace Saudi Arabia as the country holding the largest known reserve of oil. Naturally, Iran will call the shots in oil pricing in the oil bourses around the world. Iran has every intention of pricing of oil in Euros, to end the current mechanism of pricing oil in US dollars aka as the Petrodollar hegemony.
  
  United States will have to start repaying her national debt of 9 trillion dollars, as nations of the world will not hold oil as a reserve currency as it can no longer purchase oil.
  
  This is the nightmare scenario that the current US government faces and wish to avoid.

  Interesting enough, this was the most popular conspiracy theory thrown around during my final uni days while studying Middle East economies, with regards to US' motivations for the war. Actually, not only Iran could be pro-Euro, but OPEC did throw that idea around a little too seriously.
  
  EDIT: And if you noticed closly, other European members of NATO (apart from UK, but then again they aren't in on the Euro) weren't that keen on the 2nd Gulf War at that time. It was obvious what was at stake - the Petrol Dollar Hegemony.
• LazerLordz

  9 Nov 06, 17:11

  Which makes the focus on alternative energy markets more important. I wonder how this will impact on the Iranian nuclear program..
  
  America wishes to be free of imported oil so that they can pursue their interests in ME without being beholden to geopolitics. Iraq was a backup plan that became the main goal. That was the mistake. To hedge your nation's future energy security on a maelstrom..over-confidence indeed.
  
  Still, I am still quite convinced that the Project for a New American Century will not sit idly by.
• scabstermooch

  9 Nov 06, 17:15

  Whahahah - I'm grinning like a cheshire cat now!
  
  

  Democrats appear to have won the final seat needed to take control of the US Senate, the Associated Press reports.
  
  AP declared Democrat Jim Webb victor in Virginia by 7,236 votes over Republican incumbent George Allen. Official results have yet to confirm a win.
  
  Democrats have already taken the House of Representatives, and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has resigned.

  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6131122.stm
  
  Rummy (the cnut) is gone and the doctrine of separation of powers is allowed to work!
  
  I bet bush is starting to sweat.
• Hogzilla

  9 Nov 06, 19:37

  I'm more worried to two more things.
  
  1. The unrest in Nigeria.
  
  When will the unrest stop? It is affecting the oil supplies to the US and creating tension in the Middle East. (If US can't get oil from Nigeria, they can only get it from Middle East, right?)
  
  2. The new Democrat Senator, Pelosi's, stand towards China.
  
  She is a well-known anti-China. (no matter it's human-right issue, trade issue or what-so-ever issue) She will surely try her best in making Sino-American relationship sour.
• LazerLordz

  9 Nov 06, 19:45

  Originally posted by Hogzilla:

  I'm more worried to two more things.
  
  1. The unrest in Nigeria.
  
  When will the unrest stop? It is affecting the oil supplies to the US and creating tension in the Middle East. (If US can't get oil from Nigeria, they can only get it from Middle East, right?)
  
  2. The new Democrat Senator, Pelosi's, stand towards China.
  
  She is a well-known anti-China. (no matter it's human-right issue, trade issue or what-so-ever issue) She will surely try her best in making Sino-American relationship sour.

  Nigeria's unrest is more important in the long-term than Iraq. It could become another hotbed for Islamic insurgency.
  
  W.r.t Pelosi , I believe that she is not that much of an leftist, but rather committed to social and ethical investment.
  
  Human rights must never be put aside for the sake of capitalist gains.
  
  I believe that a Democratic Congress will be much more forceful in ensuring that American companies do not participate in behavior that supports repressive measures in their host nations.
• orwell76

  9 Nov 06, 21:26

  Originally posted by pwnz0r:

  Interesting enough, this was the most popular conspiracy theory thrown around during my final uni days while studying Middle East economies, with regards to US' motivations for the war. Actually, not only Iran could be pro-Euro, but OPEC did throw that idea around a little too seriously.

  A conspiracy theory that is not too far fetched.
  
  Neo Conservatives have been using carrot and stick to convince OPEC members to stick to the Petrodollar regime.
  
  The carrot; The Iraq war. The US taxpaxers has been funding the US military to mop up oil supply in the international market for strategic reserve to boost crude price, this provides a incentive for OPEC (especially the Saud family of Arabia) to continue to trade oil in USD. It's also serves to slowdown China's economic growth, due to higher cost for importing crude.
  
  However, due to the impending US presidential election 2005, the Bush administration did not raise taxes to finance the Iraq war. Instead, the Bush administration cut on social sercurity, healthcare and education budgets to finance the war in Iraq. Even that was insufficient to upkeep the cost on the war on terrorism.
  
  As a stop gap measure, the US treasury started to issue more bonds to increase the money supply to finance the war. This resulted in the decline of the value of the USD. To arrest the decline of the USD, the Federal reserve started increasing interest rates for USD, in an attempt to salvage the situation.
  
  The stick; Regime Change by military force. Any oil producing country's government that attempts to breakaway from the petrodollar regime will be toppled. Iraq was allowed to sell oil under the UN oil for food program in the year 2000. Saddam demanded that all his oil should be paid in Euros. This was a calculated move on Saddam's part to upset the petrodollar regime which was to trigger the invasion of Iraq as a friendly reminder to other OPEC states, especially Saudi Arabia not to take that course of action.
  
  Iran has started an oil bourse that trades oil in Euros in 2006. International news coverage of the "rogue" nuclear in Iran is designed by the Neo Cons as a pretext for embargo of Iranian oil or military regime change of the Iranian government at some point of time should the need arises.
  
  Americans by voting the Democrats to control both houses of the Congress has upset the Grand Strategy of the Neo Cons.