Iranian nukes could spawn Gulf arms race, Singapore elder statesman says
The Associated Press
Published: November 21, 2006
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates: A nuclear-armed Iran could shift the balance of power in the energy-rich Persian Gulf, sparking a regional arms race and potentially upending the strong economies in the region, former Singapore leader Lee Kuan Yew said here Tuesday.
Lee, the island state's longtime prime minister, warned that an atomic Iran makes nuclear war more likely than during the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow understood the need to communicate their intentions to keep their nations secure. No such understanding exists between Israel and its Muslim enemies like Iran and Hezbollah, and miscalculations by both sides already resulted in a disastrous war last summer in Lebanon, he said.
"You have a system that is producing suicide bombers. They say 'Yes I want to die and I want you to die,'" Lee told the World Leadership Summit in the Emirates capital Abu Dhabi. "You'll have a cloud of dust and a desert."
A nuclear-armed Iran would quickly damage the American security umbrella in the region and Gulf leaders would soon see the need to bolster defenses by developing second-strike nuclear attack capabilities. Currently, Israel maintains a nuclear weapons monopoly in the Middle East, with analysts estimating it has as many as 200 warheads. Israel doesn't comment on its nuclear capabilities.
Lee, who now serves as Singapore's minister mentor, suggested that within five years of Iran proving that it had atomic weapons, "nuclear research will start in earnest" among Iran's Arab Gulf neighbors who fear domination by Tehran.
"You'll have several nuclear states" in the Gulf, he said. Consequences of that would include the disruption of oil and gas exports through the Persian Gulf, which Iran could come to dominate, he said.
Lee said the Bush administration stands little chance of tackling the issue, which will be left for the next American president.
But Germany's former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder finds the Iranian nuclear developments less alarming than does Lee.
Schroeder, speaking at the same conference, said he opposed threats of war and economic sanctions to prevent Iran from developing nuclear technology to produce electricity. Schroeder said the Iranians could be persuaded to drop a weapons gambit by offering them a full role in the global economy.
"Any talk of the military option is just plain wrong," Schroeder said.
Lee also targeted a popular pastime in the Middle East: bashing America.
"You can have all the anti-American demonstrations you want," Lee
said. "It's popular to be anti-American, so why not be popular with your people? But there is a cost in the end."
Businessmen and financial leaders know that "if tomorrow America
becomes a diminished power and there is chaos in the region, their world will suddenly become bleaker and less secure," Lee said.
It will take as long as 50 years before burgeoning world powers like China or India are able to provide the same kind of stability that U.S. military and economic power brings, Lee said.
Lee urged Gulf leaders to invest energy revenues in China and India, saying Singapore's investments in its Asian neighbors had been handsomely rewarded.
"They're not just buying your oil and gas, they're growing exponentially," Lee said. "The speed at which they're catching up leaves us breathless."
Lee played down the notion of China striving to compete strategically with the United States, saying the country needs several decades of peaceful growth to catch up to the West.
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http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/11/21/africa/ME_GEN_Gulf_Iran_Nuclear.php
den wad abt SAF massive spending<>?wldnt it lead to a arms race as well