Originally posted by oxford mushroom:
Exactly what many think he's doing...the military coup leaders are terribly worried about that now...businessmen who lost money in the stock market crash are turning against them. Ultimately, whoever brings in money and prosperity for them will get their support. They were unhappy with Thaksin who accumulated more wealth than others, but Thaksin did not cause them to LOSE money whilst this coup has resulted in millions of bahts being wiped off their shares. Investors are pulling out and moving their funds to Hong Kong and Singapore.
It will take a long while to recover investor confidence again...and Thaksin might well be brought back.
A different perspective if you think from the angle of the Thai people.
Thai baht appreciated nearly 20% last year.
What Thailand did was necessary to curb excessive speculation.
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Uncertainoutlook for exports as baht rises
Published on January 3, 2007
Fears mount over oil price, slowdown
Local exports, a core engine driving economic growth, may face a gloomy future due to three factors: the strengthening baht, rising oil prices and a global slowdown.
Exporters are hoping for baht weakness to strengthen their competitiveness.
The Chamber of Commerce predicts the baht would strengthen to above Bt34 to the dollar this year. The Bank of Thailand's lifting measure, announced on December 18 last year, had weakened the baht by Bt36.53 to the dollar on December 21. Exporters would like the baht to trade between Bt38-40 to the greenback.
Exporters have been suffering from the strengthening of the baht. They also foresee flat business growth if the currency keeps escalating against the dollar, making Thai products more expensive for global players.
"The baht should not be stronger than our export rivals. Otherwise, Thailand may lose export markets" one exporter said.
According to a recent BOT report, the baht has appreciated by 14 per cent against the dollar since last year. However, it was stronger by 9.3 per cent when compared with early 2005. The strong baht has prompted the country's competitiveness to ease by 8.6 per cent, which is the same rate as other Asian countries.
But major export rivals - China, the Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia - have a slight edge as their currencies have not gained as much as the baht to the dollar.
The fear is that Thailand might not reach its export target of US$145.22 billion (Bt5.18 trillion) this year, an increase by 12.5 per cent, as projected by the Commerce Ministry.
Katiya Greigarn, chairman of the electronics and electrical-appliances sector of the Federation of Thai Industries (FDI), said the strengthening of the baht had hurt Thai exporters. Exports of electrical appliances, for example, will face flat growth this year because of high competition, particularly from China.
He said exports of electronic goods, the country's major export product, will confront a tough situation. Exports in this sector were expected to grow by 20 per cent to Bt1 trillion last year. However, exports this year may grow 15 to 19 per cent because Thai goods may become more expensive.
Another factor that may reduce export growth is a shortage of skilled labour. Katiya said about 50,000 labourers are needed to supply the expansion of the electronics industry in the next three years.
Somsak Borrisutanakul, chairman of the plastics sector of the FDI, said this year and next year plastic exports will remain unchanged at Bt70 billion in value.
Although plastic exports performed quite well in the first half of last year, the baht's appreciation had lowered exporters' competitiveness.
He said the federation predicted that the strengthening baht will cause flat growth this year.
"The problem will also carry on and affect export growth next year," he said, adding that exporters are trying to increase their competitiveness, but the fluctuating baht is beyond their control.
He added that other negative signals include a projection of a global economic slowdown.
This will create a domino effect upon Thailand's major importing countries such as the US and the European Union.
The International Monetary Fund projected that global trade will grow by 7.6 per cent from 8.9 per cent last year, while the world economy is expected to rise by 4.9 per cent from 5.1 per cent.
The economies of Thailand's trading partners will also show a slowdown in growth in 2007. The US economy is predicted to grow by 2.9 from 3.1 per cent; Japan's by 2.1 from 2.9 per cent, and the EU's 2 per cent from 2.4 per cent.
Chookiat Ophawongse, president of the Rice Traders Association, said the baht's appreciation had directly hit agricultural goods the most. Traders and manufacturers have had to shoulder higher production costs while the stronger baht has made imported raw materials cheaper than using local content.
The association forecasts that rice exports may not perform as well as previously projected, although Vietnam, the country's major export rival, announced that it would temporarily suspend white-rice exports.
Chookiat said the rising gap in rice prices will lower Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports are predicted to reach about 8 to 8.5 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 10 million tonnes.
Pornchai Chuenchomlada, president of Thai Gems and Jewellery Traders Association, said despite the rising value of the baht, exports of jewellery are expected to grow by 15 per cent to Bt172.5 billion this year, thanks to the recent US announcement to renew duty-free privileges for two more years.
He said the continuation of the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) for two years until December 31, 2008, will maintain the country's competitiveness. However, the baht's strength was still a negative factor for the industry's exports which would affect its targeted growth of 15 per cent this year.
Thavorn Chalassathien, chairman of the auto parts sector of the FDI, said exports of auto parts seemed to be one of the few sectors that was suffering less from the strong baht because it also relied on raw material imports. Some 30 to 50 per cent of production involves imported goods. Although income from exports will be decreased, lower costs of production will lessen the problem for auto parts' exporters, he said.
Auto parts exports are expected to increase by 15 per cent to Bt280 billion this year from this year's figure of Bt240 billion.
Other negative factors to slow down the country's export growth include the suspension of bilateral trade negotiations with trading partners, the rise of non-tariff barriers and new import standards by major markets.
Export Promotion Department director-general Rachane Potjanasuntorn said the two export products that would be hardest hit by the baht's appreciation are shrimp and canned fruits and vegetables, both of which rely mostly on domestic raw materials.
Other exports that will face tough competition next year are textiles and garments, rubber, chicken, furniture and leather goods.
Petchanet Pratruangkrai
The Nation