SingaporeÂ’s
Great population leap
A 6.5m-size city will be comparable in size to London (7.5m), HK (7m), but can its racial fabric cope?
Seah Chiang Nee, littlespeck.com
Feb 17, 2007
LAST week, a child started kindergarten classes to begin a 17-year journey before graduating into an unbelievably larger Singapore of 6.5m people.
She was the granddaughter of a former classmate of mine, who is seeking - with thousands of others - a good start in life.
If she gets it, she will emerge in 2025 to see a country that will be radically different from what it is today.
The government announced last week an ambitious plan to expand the population from the present 4.5m to 6.5m, a 40% hike, in 20 years.
This will push Singapore to become the 23rd biggest city in the world (by todayÂ’s calculation) with migrants playing a major role as they have always done.
A city-state of 6.5m would put it into a different league, not too far behind the likes of Tokyo (8.5m), New York City (8.1m), London (7.5m) and Hong Kong (7m), but bigger than Paris (2.2m).
But while these other populations are likely to increase by then, albeit at a lesser rate, this closing-up with the worldÂ’s top-class cities will still give Singaporeans a certain sense of pride.
But it is tempered by a large dose of uncertainty - even apprehension - about the impact on their childrenÂ’s future, competition, jobs and lifestyles.
Singapore will also have the dubious distinction of overtaking Hong Kong, by a wide margin, as the worldÂ’s third densest-populated city.
By then, its 9,293 people per sq km (currently 6,20
will overshadow the territoryÂ’s 6,407, and we all know what life can be like; imagine queuing up just to pay your bills.
The most crowded cities remain Monaco (23,660 per sq km) and Macao (17,699).
This rapid expansion has raised mixed feelings and a hard question “Can we cope?”
It is also bad news for people in the lower strata. The congregation of imported talent and wealth will add pressure on them and widen the economic gap here.
Generally, people fear the more competitive lifestyle and higher costs of living.
They are geared for a future of always fighting for space, jobs and everything else, living in flats that run 40-60 storeys high, and being packed in Japanese-style commuter trains.
SingaporeÂ’s population has already increased by a phenomenal 62% from 2.7m to the present 4.5m in the past 16 years, one of the fastest rates in the world.
“This is shocking,” said a 17-year-old teen when I told him it was set to rise further. He had just obtained his O-Level grades.
Born in 1990 when Singapore had a population of only 2.7m, he observed, “Wow! This means that before I reach 35, I will be living among 6.5m people.”
To say he is uncertain is putting it lightly. He is very worried about competing with an influx of foreigners hungry for jobs, who worker harder and are more ready to accept less pay.
The “foreign talent” policy, which has drawn the government a lot of political flak, will likely be expanded in the years ahead.
Last year provided an example of the intensity.
The government granted permits for 58,200 permanent residency (PR) and 13,900 citizenships to foreigners. Their total was almost double the 38,000 babies born to Singaporeans.
In the next five years, some 240,000 PR and citizenships will be issued but there is no guarantee the figures will not be raised.
The biggest problem, of course, goes beyond congestion. Experts say it will raise a host of urgent questions, like stability and social cohesion, pollution and adequate public facilities.
Land use is being revised for more schools, health care homes, etc; food, water and energy need re-planning.
Visiting American population expert Joel Cohen raised some of these issues at a recent public lecture. The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy had invited him here to provide a macro view on population trends.
Cohen raised a major question - how will the increase of 2m people, most of them foreigners, affect SingaporeÂ’s multi-racial fabric?
“If you add four or five more ethnicities to it, will it work?” he asked.
It is not a question of numbers, said Cohen who heads the Laboratory of Populations at the Rockefeller and Columbia Universities in New York.
Rather, the question to ask is: “Will my society hold together as layers of heterogeneity are added on top of my current ethnic mix?”
While locals watch with a mixture of hope and anxiety, economic analysts are enthusiastic about what it will do. Many see it as a catalyst for a boom.
The heavy influx of talent and wealth will improve fundamentals and boost growth to an average of 6% a year for the next decade.
“Singapore is one of the most exciting stories among world cities,” said a risk evaluator on CNBC.
He sees the last three years of strong growth as just the start. “Its property values are only half those in Hong Kong and will have a long way to go.”
Most Singaporeans, who are worried about losing out to foreigners, are however more concerned about immediate needs like jobs and a fairer pay over the pride of belonging to a world city.
what's so proud about belonging to a world city when one is treated like 2nd class citizen?
