Emphasising that neighbours should not be concerned, Datuk Seri Najib said
Malaysia spends only 2.5 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) on
defence, while Singapore spends between 5 and 6 per cent.
But in the eyes of a Malaysian social activist, Singapore has been made a bogey
to justify arms purchases.
The Malaysian media had been playing up the issue of Singapore's reclamation
works in the Johor Straits and its self-sufficiency in water, noted Mr Kua Kia
Soong of human rights group Suaram.
'It is very clear that this Singapore bogey is there to justify the arms deal,'
he told the BBC recently.
In Stratfor's estimation, however, 'rivalries with Singapore, which itself is
heavily armed with modern military equipment, are unlikely to escalate into
conventional war'.
Another possible reason for the surge in arms purchases is Malaysia's desire to
be the leading Asean country.
'Malaysian leaders want to expand the country's regional influence and a strong
military would add weight to Malaysia's economic strength and political
independence,' Stratfor noted.
It said some of Malaysia's purchase plans appear out of place given that the
main security threats are posed by immigrant labourers and religious, ethnic or
political violence.
Signs are that the country is instead preparing for 'long-term contingencies',
it said.
These could be in the form of unrest at its border with Thailand's
Muslim-majority southern provinces, it said. Or worse, a possible disintegration
of Indonesia. Malaysian defence planners think that if Jakarta loses control
over Borneo in particular, Malaysia must be prepared to act pre-emptively.
It should also be able to fend off aggressors or refugees from other areas,
especially Sumatra.
On its part, Indonesia has stayed unconcerned over Malaysia's weapons
expansion.
'Indonesia doesn't see Malaysia as a threat. If they had, then they would have
expanded their weapons purchases before the financial crisis when both Malaysia
and Singapore launched a major expansion,' analyst Bob Lowry told Sunday Review.
At less than 1 per cent of the GDP, the country has one of the lowest military
budgets in Asia at US$1 billion (S$1.8 billion), although analysts in Jakarta
said that about 70 per cent of actual spending of US$3 billion comes from the
military's network of legal and illegal businesses.
The funds crunch has delayed replacement of equipment. 'They are down to their
bare bones, they have no money to spend on new equipment. They are flat out
maintaining capability,' said another analyst.
Because of the US defence embargo since early 2000, the plan was for deals with
Russia and China, which offer cheaper equipment. But even this proved
unaffordable.
The strain is showing. For the lack of functioning transport planes, troops
cannot be deployed quickly to conflict areas. In Aceh, where at least 30,000
troops are deployed in counter-insurgency operations, soldiers complain they
lack boots and personal equipment.
Unlike Indonesia, Thailand has viewed Malaysia's arms purchases with some
concern but does not see the region in an arms race.
'Not yet, but it is close to one. Right now, countries are acquiring new
capabilities like electronic warfare, intelligence equipment to extend their
operational capability beyond their own borders,' said Dr Panitan Wattanayagorn,
a leading defence expert at Chulalongkorn University.
Thailand would like to match its neighbours but faces funds constraint - the
military budget is about 1.4 per cent of the GDP compared to 4.5 per cent a
decade ago.
Major-General Palangkoon Klaharn, the defence ministry's deputy spokesman,
said: 'When Malaysia and Myanmar bought Russian MIG aircraft recently, we did
not follow.
'We must accept that Asean neighbours have minor problems on and off, like
Thailand and Malaysia have over border issues. But war is not the option.'
Dr Panitan said: 'In the short term, Thailand's security threats come from the
Myanmar border, where drug and weapon smuggling is on the rise. It is also
concerned about the security of its sea lanes. In the long term, it is the
potential threat posed by emerging superpowers like China, India and Japan.'
But there are no plans for a major order of military hardware in the next five
years, Army commander General Surayudh Chulanont has said.
Instead, it would emphasise maintenance and modification of existing weaponry.
To cut costs, the army is modifying 40 personnel carriers into armoured carriers
using local contractors.
Last week, it accepted delivery of three Blackhawk helicopters bought using
last year's budget to replace its ageing Bell units.
Before the 1997 crisis, the navy had been beefing up with new frigates and an
aircraft carrier but its recent request for a submarine was rejected by the
government.
But perhaps the most hard-up are the Philippines armed forces, which are known
to be the most ill-equipped in the region.
For a time, the Philippine Air Force's aircraft were so decrepit that they were
described as 'flying coffins or widow-makers'. Naval vessels and army equipment
break down frequently.
'When we drew up the estimates for the modernisation programme in 1995, the
peso-dollar exchange rate was only 26 to a dollar. Now, it's 51-52 to a dollar.
Our estimates not only have to be revised; we need more money to upgrade our
fighting capability,' remarked a military official.
But money is hard to come by with the defence budget of 46.2 billion pesos
(S$1.6 billion) capped to about 4 per cent of the GDP and a separate
modernisation programme of 5 billion pesos for 2002.
The promise of equipment and at least US$100 million in aid from the US has yet
to materialise.
The Asia-Pacific region, along with the Middle East, is the world's premier
arms market and the latest rounds of acquisitions can be viewed as
modernisation. But that is not as innocuous as it sounds.
'Modernisation means it's not the maintenance of status quo, so mutual
suspicions can get reinforced,' said Dr Tan of IDSS.
'And these need to be allayed by bilateral and multilateral confidence-building
measures and diplomatic initiatives.'
WITH REPORTS FROM: Edward Tang in Bangkok, Leslie Lau in Kuala Lumpur, Luz
Baguioro in Manila and Marianne Kearney in Jakarta