Be more afraid of this ...than this
Top futurist Peter Schwartz says world should be fretting over climate change, not rise of China and India
By Woon Wui Tek
May 20, 2007
FIRST, the good news: There is no reason why economic good times shouldn't roll on for a lot longer.
And you will have more time to enjoy them, because living way past 100 could become the norm.
But weather is the bad news: Will we one day go to war over water?
The sweet-sour vision comes from futurist Peter Schwartz, who gave a talk at the Civil Service College on Thursday.
The consultant, who advises organisations around the world on future trends, is a member of the Government's Research, Innovation and Enterprise Council (Riec).
He also led a team of futurists in visualising the year 2058 for Steven Spielberg's hit 2002 film, Minority Report.
In his own 'report' on Thursday, MrSchwartz said new drivers of growth should keep the world economy humming.
Two drivers - knowledge and good governance - are familiar. He identified another driver as the increasingly complex and elaborate nature of our society.
This will become a 'self-generating' cycle of wealth. He explained: We keep coming up with new niches to fill.
This seems to make sense: We need only think of industries like the handphone sector or consumer electronics.
In the field of science, MrSchwartz said the world is poised to control 'biological systems' to the same degree we can already control our physical environment.
Lifespans of 200 are not impossible, he suggested, drawing gasps. 'So choose wisely when you marry,' he quipped.
But as we live longer, we will need to keep working.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army. -- Pictures: AFP, REUTERS
While the Government has just announced its intention to make it easier for those above 62 to be rehired, Mr Schwartz is already talking of the age of retirement being delayed to 75.
Sounds dreary? Ah, but we would be healthy enough to actually 'want to work', he says.
'CHINDIA' THREAT?
Mr Schwartz's crystal ball is markedly brighter than the usual pessimism from most futurists.
Take the predictions of academics like Samuel Huntington. That is, that some inevitable 'clash of civilisations' is looming as new powers like China challenge the West.
This view has it that China's neighbours would fall in line as China becomes the regional leader.
But Mr Schwartz, who is co-founder and chairman of Global Business Network, rejects this forcefully.
Yes, he happily acknowledges the importance of the rise of China and India (or 'Chindia', as he dubs it).
'There's no force bigger... almost everything pales in comparison,' he said.
But he also points out that this rise is due to the current world system of economic trade - of which China and India are the greatest beneficiaries.
From their energy needs to their exports, it's all achieved through the current 'market orientation' - which is leading to an ever-more integrated world.
'Chindia would be the biggest loser,' Mr Schwartz said, if such a 'world of integration' falls apart.
At the same time, he thinks China's neighbours - Vietnam or India, for example - are more likely to resist than accept any attempt by China to assert dominance. Therefore, the West 'and China should be on the same side. China is not the enemy'.
Drought, in Assam, India.
All that is not to say that MrSchwartz sees the future through rose-tinted glasses.
He acknowledges problems in Africa, South America and Europe (Russia, he says, is facing 'demographic collapse').
He notes that there are religious, ideological, ethnic and even criminal forces that could be very destabilising.
They may even learn new ways of waging war, thanks to the mess in Iraq, Mr Schwartz said.
If, say, infrastructure and transport nodes are singled out, not military targets, the US' military dominance - and it may 'become even more militarily dominant' - will be relatively toothless.
We might think planes (9/11) or train stations (the London bombings).
WATER WARS THREAT?
But Mr Schwartz reserves his most dire warning for climate change, which he calls 'the greatest challenge we've ever faced'.
This is partly due to the chaos that rising ocean levels could wreak on low-lying places like Bangladesh.
He suggests that Singapore, as a rich and technologically- advanced country, should try to help neighbours prepare for climate disruption.
Mr Schwartz is most concerned about climate change because he thinks it might touch off major wars.
'Imagine a 10-year drought, rather like what's going on in Australia, but in the Tibetan highlands,' he said.
This would greatly affect water flow in crucial rivers like the Mekong, which flows through China's Yunnan province and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
We might well see 'wars for access to water'.
Mr Schwartz is familiar with the region. He first visited Singapore in 1967, as a college student.
Is most of the cool stuff in Minority Report unattainable science fiction? Mr Schwartz was asked this in the question-and-answer session.
'Well, you won't see policemen flying around on jet packs... or flying cars,' he replied - saying director Spielberg wanted those elements in.
But the rest should come to pass, he said.