Scenario... INDO vs MAL
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if indonesia decided to amass its 300,000 force in kalimantan... wat will the MAF do?
If indonesia march across the border and attack malayia across multiple front with the aim of capturing all malaysian seaport, airport , trunk roads and key cities... wat will MAF do?
does the MAF have the ability to defend East malaysia in the event of an indonesian invasion??
please do not involve SAF in this war scenario... -
eh.....jus to ask.....
Indo got the capablity to sent 300,000 soldiers to kalimatan meh......without suffering from international criticism ..then lost all international monetary support, then civil war break out in dispute areas in the archi.....hmmmm if dun have such problems and they sent 300,000 into kalimatan ...and the malaysian dun have support from US ...i will say...Dr M will say....oh FUCK... ! -
if Indon can amass 300k soldiers, basically means they got no more soldiers left in Indonesia itself already, so why not just whack Indon mainland? Indonesia will probably lose like siao 'cos MAF can whack any part of Indon without ANY resistance...
After that, UN will step in, US will send seventh fleet over to 'maintain peace' etc... M'sia newspaper will make remarks about how good MAF is...
I doubt Indon will actually touch Malaysia lah, but then again Indon leadership is VERY unpredicatable, though Ms Megawati dun seem too bad so far... if you got another fella like Wahid come into power, then maybe got chance they'll go for excursion in Malaysia
but then again, it mostly depends on the generals in TNI, TNI got ALOT of power in Indon and they are dumb but not dumb enough to go whack M'sia... -
Malaysia vs Indonesia??
ha ha ha ha...dont make me laugh....we have more advanced weaponry........... -
The deciding factor here is logistics. TNI does not have the logistics to move sufficient manpower and equipment from all over to concentrate on Kalimantan quickly enough to catch anyone off guard. By the time sufficient numbers are built up(if they can be at all), diplomatic intervention might have defused the situation already.
Also, I don't think TNI can spare the manpower. Ambon, Aceh and West Papua is already tying up a lot of TNI military and logistics assets.
However, on a pure fantasy scenario alone, should the original situation be able to be played out, (ie assume no trouble in West Papua, Ambon and Aceh to tie up TNI assets), I would say the TNI would steamroll the MAF by sheer weight of numbers alone. The MAF might have superior weapons as Innocent Malaysian said, but individual superiority can only bring you that far if you don't have sufficient numbers on the ground. -
not really, actually, if they fight a fast war, the Malaysians have a very good chance of winning compare to TNI, esp. if the Malaysians get there in time... that will be the main factor for both sides i guess, racing to see who gets there first to strike first. TNI will have the advantage of surprise if they can get a few 'elite units' (if they have any good ones) to strike first but Malaysian weaponry will change that. If there is a prolonged war, the original shifting troop problem is not so evidently present anymore and only then can Indon just steam roll in, but with only 300k troops (virtually the whole standing force of Indon without reserves) this is not a sure win situation.
I would say that the odds of Malaysia winning are 6-4, not totally certain victory but likely... -
In the unlikely scenario that Indonesia attacked Malaysia in Borneo, and with factors like not having their build up of their troops detected, then it would be very likely that the whole of Borneo will fall. This takes into accounts that the TNI will commit only 1/3 of its force meaning that it will be less than the 300,000 troops, less advance weaponary and a weak Indonesian navy and air force.
This is because as you could see in the map, there is a South China Sea dividing the two territories and MAF do not have the capability to project their force across the South China Sea. In my opinion, only the US has the ability to project their ground force far away and even that it has some difficulties doing it. If China can launch their ground troops successfully into Taiwan, it would have taken back Taiwan. Remember the Gulf War whereby it takes months just to get the ground troops into place. In history, only during the World War II have ground forces been projected successfully during the Allies attack into Frace and it took so many countries naval and merchant ships to do so.
So Borneo may fall but how long can Indonesia hold on to it is another question altogether.[/img] -
i wish to point out the following:
1... indonesian military numbers stands at 1 million men... although 700,000 of the above are little more the mere patrolmen with probably one pistol or a rifle... it must be understood that indonesia would not be entirely undefended in other areas should it choose to move 300,000 of its elite forces to kalimantan....
2.... couple with the millitary... i must stress that indonesia also possess a sizeable paramilitary force.
3.... it should not be too difficult to conduct a conscription to get additional man into the milltary for a potential redeployment of forces into kalimantan for a nation that populous...
4... moving forces within one's national border is a national sovereign rights... as such... i doubt the international community would bother to make much noise... in fact... malaysia itself would find it difficult to challenge the indonesians over such a basic right... remember the time when malaysia move 100,000 men to johor for exercise??? singapore was obviously alarmed but the world international overall... said nothing at all...
5... majority of the MAF forces are in peninsula malaysia... while those in East malaysia are mainly composed of less well equipped units. thus we must consider the disposition of malaysian units, equipment and its ability to re-enforce its eastern units should the need arises.
6... while indonesia would probably not depoy its maximun 300,000 force in kalimantan... likewise... it must be realise that MAF would not move all its forces eastward in view of the proximity of sumatra to KL...
7... another factors needs to be considered is the nearly 1million indonesians currently working legally and illegally in malaysia, especially peninsula malaysia... the TNI's ability to get them involved by resorted to crime, sabotage, forward intelligience, a 'second' front and others must be taken into account.
8... furthermore... indonesia while suffering from separatism... many of these separatist forces are not really in my view overstretching the TNI's forces... rather... when u face a guerrila force... conventional forces seems unable to contain them.... but its does not mean that IF TNI goes into east malaysia... the separatist will get all they wanted.
9... indonesia do posses submarines and other warships... though not as advance as RMN... i still belive that their presence would significantly impede MAF's ability to send forces by sea to east malaysia... likewise in the air... TNI-AU would definitely attempt to hit every C130 RMAF sends... in any event... RMAF airlift ability is limited and its sincerely doubtfull they can send sufficient forces by air to reverse the severe disadvantage they are facing on the east malaysian front...
10...on the other hand... i sincerely questions RMAF ability to do the same against indonesia (TNI sending more forces to kalimantan by air or sea)in view of the distance that needs to be covered... the lack of ATA refuelling plus the inability of RMAF to loiter over any area far from malaysia for a useful amount of time...send RMN ships deep into indonesia water to cut off such indonesian reinforcement without sufficient air cover is neither a good option either....
11 lastly... we have to consider the extremely long and highly porous joint border between east malaysia and kalimantan and the ease of TNI to penetrate those lines and rush for all the RMAF airbase, MAF camps and RMN base... they could even send elite units into malaysia first and lie waiting outside each MAF camps and base to keep them in check or pin them down until the TNI main force comes to annihilate them.
12.... finally... if TNI decides to keeps its 300,000 force near malaysian borders in east malaysia.... wat is malaysia's options...
12a. will MAF send additional forces to defend a line that is indefensible while putting its capital and peninsula malaysia at higher risk in view of the potential indonesian charging across the melaka strait?
12b or will MAF simply give up east malaysia and consider the security need of KL instead? -
That is a very exhaustive breakdown of the case tripwire....... very informative!
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Honestly, if there is any invasion by the Indonesians against the Malaysians .. it will not be a clean army to army fight. There will be lots of militias, ethnic cleansing psychological warefare, etc.
Firstly, why the heck does everyone think that an invasion will be for Sabah and Sarawak? Indonesia already owns most of it and that place is underpopulated compared to the rest of Indonesia. If Indonesia want to fight malaysia, they will probably want the Peninsula.
Secondly, what is the invasion for? to Destroy and damage Malaysia's economy or to conquer? Frankly, Indonesia may be able to conquer but it won't be able to hold the land as it already has problem securing Acheh and Ambon. If it wants to destroy Malaysia, it can do it cheaper without the use of the TNI. Send 1 million illegals to Malaysia to cause havok is more damaging than sending 300k soldiers.
But if the TNI and MAF fight it out, my guess is that if it turns to a war of attrition, TNI will win. But my guess is also the MAF will arm seperatist in Aceh, Ambon, Kalimantan and make the both countries a living hell (and we in the middle of it) Question is where will they fight? -
MAF arm seperatist?? at a time when they do not even have enough weapons to arm themselves against indonesia??? perhaps malaysia may offer some financial assistance... but even that is limited as they needed every ringgit to purchase the arms and ammos they will need in a war... malaysia is hardly a rich nation to begin with.. and with little or no defence industry to start off with... they are gonna need a lot of hard cash to fund a war.... and you can forget about using palm oil to pay for ammo in a war...Originally posted by kenhor:Honestly, if there is any invasion by the Indonesians against the Malaysians .. it will not be a clean army to army fight. There will be lots of militias, ethnic cleansing psychological warefare, etc.
i would say that everything is possible... i wont even dismiss the possibilities of a combine sort of warfare involving wat u stated above... but in the end... you will need regular army troopers to move in and stick that flag on that piece of soil....
Firstly, why the heck does everyone think that an invasion will be for Sabah and Sarawak? Indonesia already owns most of it and that place is underpopulated compared to the rest of Indonesia. If Indonesia want to fight malaysia, they will probably want the Peninsula. the purpose that sabah and sarawak was picked as the threater of battle is because it gives the indonesians an overwhelming advantage as an attacker... no attacker would risk going up a harder target if they have a choice... east malaysia shares common border with malaysia, that reduce the need of amphibious and airborn operations... indonesian millitary does not posses sufficient amphibious capability to mount an attack against peninsula malaysia coupled with the fact that peninsula is smaller than east malaysia while at the same time defended by twice as many troops compared with east malaysia the fact that east malaysia is underpopulated actually helps the invader as it will be easier to control... and i heard that east malaysians are hardly patriotic towards the peninsula malaysia... lastly... even if the east malaysian wanna fight... pray tell... who is gonna back them up against indonesia? other reasons for selecting an invasion of east malaysia include the disposition of MAF resources and MAF's reach and logistic ability... from the viewpoint of TNI... in short.. MAF's weakness lies in east malaysia...
Secondly, what is the invasion for? to Destroy and damage Malaysia's economy or to conquer? Frankly, Indonesia may be able to conquer but it won't be able to hold the land as it already has problem securing Acheh and Ambon. If it wants to destroy Malaysia, it can do it cheaper without the use of the TNI. Send 1 million illegals to Malaysia to cause havok is more damaging than sending 300k soldiers. Illegals are unorganised and unarmed and lastly unsupported... they at most would cause significant social disorder... but it wont be difficult to clamp them down separately and impose extreme measures to keep them out through force of arms if necessary. what the invasion is for??? there are many unreasonable people in this world... if all many is reasonable.. we wont need to resort to war... in fact.. i would like to ask... why indonesia started the confrontasi??? seems unreasonable to me... but it happened and blood were spilled....
But if the TNI and MAF fight it out, my guess is that if it turns to a war of attrition, TNI will win. But my guess is also the MAF will arm seperatist in Aceh, Ambon, Kalimantan and make the both countries a living hell (and we in the middle of it) Question is where will they fight? -
A good reply, tripwire, but still does not answer me on why would Indonesia pick Sabah & Sarawak? After all, its all jungle .. they take it over, international arbitration, and malaysia gets most of it back? In fact, an invasion can happen today and we won't know of it? What would it benefit?
The we come to the folks of Sarawak & Sabah. Unhappy they may be to be part of Malaysia, I am sure they will prefer it to being part of indonesia.
Then comes logistics. Yes. MAF may be having trouble going into Indonesia .. but depending on what sort of battle is taking place? I really think that any invasion is going to be a man-to-man battle (Indons will win as 300k soldiers is definately overwhelming force) So I think MAF will be just ferrying troops and ammo over there. And send ship .. there will not be much need for trACked vehicles as the terrain there is jungle and mountainous (4WDs will be ideal)
I don't think any battle between 2 muslim nations is going to be just soldiers .. there will be bombings, insurgency etc. Question will be which State in Malaysia wants to join Indonesia and which state in indonesia will side with the Malaysians?
I know little about the confratasi but my thought was that was to prevent Malaysia from claiming sabah and sarawak into their union. I am not sure if any of the current issues Malaysia and Indonesia have will turn into a full scale war nor its strategic intention.
Japan invaded SEA for resources. So did Germany when it kicked off WW2. Vietname and Korea was wars to unite their country under one banner. Konfrontasi was to prevent East Malaya from joining the union. Konfrontasi II will have to have some similar impetus. If we can think of a plausible scenario, then we can figure out WHERE it should be held. -
as i said... the purpose is to depict a senario between MAF and TNI over east malaysia... and i have given the reason why east malaysia was chosen (presumably by TNI) for military and strategic reasons.... the questions are... how will MAF prevent the fall of east malaysia....Originally posted by kenhor:A good reply, tripwire, but still does not answer me on why would Indonesia pick Sabah & Sarawak? After all, its all jungle .. they take it over, international arbitration, and malaysia gets most of it back? In fact, an invasion can happen today and we won't know of it? What would it benefit? in view of indonesia's geographical and population size... i ask... who or wat power is gonna make indonesia go to the international arbitration?? and even IF indonesia decides to accept arbitration... that will be after the war... and indonesia will be in the arbitration from a position of overwhelming strength... assuming that east malaysia is now completely under TNI occupation. lastly... settlement by arbitration is hardly a clean and efficient affair... it could take decades just to see both side in the arbitration court and even more years just to sort out the differences and arguments and blah blah blah... by which time... i would belive that mass migration policies would have change the demographical image of east malaysia totally..... why go to war?? east malaysia also have alot of resources that indonesia would surely love to plunder.... not to mention the other fact that indonesia would effectively increase in size by as much as 20 percent!
The we come to the folks of Sarawak & Sabah. Unhappy they may be to be part of Malaysia, I am sure they will prefer it to being part of indonesia. my point is that... since the east malaysians are harldy patriotic towards KL... chances of them uprising against TNI is lesser though not remote and to many of them... its merely a change in masters....
Then comes logistics. Yes. MAF may be having trouble going into Indonesia .. but depending on what sort of battle is taking place? I really think that any invasion is going to be a man-to-man battle (Indons will win as 300k soldiers is definately overwhelming force) So I think MAF will be just ferrying troops and ammo over there. And send ship .. there will not be much need for trACked vehicles as the terrain there is jungle and mountainous (4WDs will be ideal) i sincerely belive that such a move of logistics across to east malaysia would not go smoothly and TNI-AL and TNI-AU would make sure of that ... lastly... without additional troops... more rifles and ammos is hardly gonna stop the TNI rush for every major towns in east malaysia and other key strategic location and positions... such logistic support is equivalent to attempting to stop a raging fire with a water gun...
I don't think any battle between 2 muslim nations is going to be just soldiers .. there will be bombings, insurgency etc. Question will be which State in Malaysia wants to join Indonesia and which state in indonesia will side with the Malaysians? i dont think the states would be in any autonomous position to take any sides... this is because the respective states do not control the armed forces or their own local militia forces... furthermore.. the geographical delineation ensures that any rebellious elements would be met with swiftly and harshly.... by forces from its own nations.. while help or reinforcement from the other side would not be forthcoming anytime soon enough to make a difference.
I know little about the confratasi but my thought was that was to prevent Malaysia from claiming sabah and sarawak into their union. I am not sure if any of the current issues Malaysia and Indonesia have will turn into a full scale war nor its strategic intention. anything is possible.....reasons dont always come into the picture.
Japan invaded SEA for resources. So did Germany when it kicked off WW2. Vietname and Korea was wars to unite their country under one banner. Konfrontasi was to prevent East Malaya from joining the union. Konfrontasi II will have to have some similar impetus. If we can think of a plausible scenario, then we can figure out WHERE it should be held. -
Ok .. your reasoning is solid .. I am not a military genius. BUT if I were a politician and Sarawak is being invaded, I will disperse my population into the jungle, and concentrate on defending Kuching and KK only. I think I would have enough local troops to hold out for at least 2 months.
Now since the battle field is probably more likely to be around Kuching rather than in the heart of borneo, The Malaysian navy will target specifically resupply ships. So that if the Indons want to resupply, it will be a damn long drive from pontianak.
Natuna should be occupied as well so that the indonesians cant use it to cut off east and west malaysia..
So it will be a siege to see who can hold out longer .. the defenders in Kuching or the invaders around it.Personally, as I been to Kuching, it is doomed as it is not like JB, it has wide open roads and not much cover. I would prefer to be an invader than a defender.
Sorry .. good scenario .. but I am too inexperienced to debate this. -
why should we even have this scenario?
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cos its a senario of wat can happen...a topic a thread for us to discuss...Originally posted by amelia1083:why should we even have this scenario?
u can also have a senario on Ubin vs Tekong or Santa Claus vs Boogey man
understand??
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then y not have a scenario of wat will happen if both indo and msia is against singapore?
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Originally posted by kenhor:Ok .. your reasoning is solid .. I am not a military genius. BUT if I were a politician and Sarawak is being invaded, I will disperse my population into the jungle, and concentrate on defending Kuching and KK only. I think I would have enough local troops to hold out for at least 2 months. if you refer to my previous post... i stated that 1. indonesians forces (perhaps special forces) is to attempt to pin the malaysian forces down until the main TNI units arrives to kill it... 2. i also mentioned that the TNI would attempt to rush for all the strategic areas and road plus cities... by virtue of the 2 points above.. you would realise that the TNI is conducting a blitz operation with key intentions of overwhelming MAF forces by pinning them down separatly and prevents them from colescing into bigger units by capturing key roads.... i would believe that the TNI would divide its forces into 4 to 5 operating groups... the 1st is the infiltrating units... their purpose is to keep tags on key roads, strategic bases (military units) and cities, plus forward intelligience with respect to MAF force disposition, communication and transportation links plus potential war materials availability (such as petrol stations that can be used by TNI to refuel instead of attempting to rely totally on TNI logistics). most importantly, they will be liasion officers in war to help TNI move through areas quickly and safely. the 2nd operating groups would consist of rapid mobile units on light wheels... they will attempt to move in swiftly and quickly across the porous borders and attempts to capture all the key strategic locations such as roads, ports and bridges... they will also be tasked to cut enemy communication links as well as key forward supplies such as petrol pump and supermarkets and hospitals if not medical depots. The 3rd operating groups would consist of forces aimed at pinning down enemy units and wiping them out... the 4th groups and the 5th groups will act as reserves as well as helping out the attack... the 4th group would also attempt to reinforce 2nd group while 5th group would be assigned to assist 3rd group. as such... i sincerely doubt the TNI would permit the MAF to regoup in any particular city to hold off the TNI... for months... in fact... if the MAF do move their forces to any of the key cities...it will simply be isolated and starved into surrendering....
Now since the battle field is probably more likely to be around Kuching rather than in the heart of borneo, The Malaysian navy will target specifically resupply ships. So that if the Indons want to resupply, it will be a damn long drive from pontianak. forward supply base...
Natuna should be occupied as well so that the indonesians cant use it to cut off east and west malaysia.. i sincerely doubt MAF got enough forces to mount an effective amphibious op against natuna... remember.. the TNI subs and ships plus TNI-AU would make MAF run for natuna... a bloody and an impossible affair.. chiong beach not easy leh...
So it will be a siege to see who can hold out longer .. the defenders in Kuching or the invaders around it.Personally, as I been to Kuching, it is doomed as it is not like JB, it has wide open roads and not much cover. I would prefer to be an invader than a defender. indeed...
Sorry .. good scenario .. but I am too inexperienced to debate this. -
sure we could... in fact.. i think the entire forum is already full of pieces of information of such a potential scenario...Originally posted by amelia1083:then y not have a scenario of wat will happen if both indo and msia is against singapore?
secondly... i am very proud to hear that it will take 2 big nations with total population well in excess of singapore to even think of beating singapore... its a testament to singapore's strength in not power... -
we did have tat senarioOriginally posted by amelia1083:then y not have a scenario of wat will happen if both indo and msia is against singapore?
wither ur plain lazy to find it or just plain ignorant