Indonesia + Malaysia VS Singapore Scenario
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No nation will be silly enough making its troops swim across a strait regardless of its size 1000 swim less than 100 will survive.Its just suicidal.Originally posted by EXCO:I may be ignorant on that issue... But hell, China would swim their troops across that narrow straits if they have to.
Your " But hell, China would swim their troops across that narrow straits if they have to " Mmmm..quite silly and illogical
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Such a fanatical all out scenario might become possible in the days ahead. All it needs is a coup, or a change in power in the respective governments to move such an action. The trigger would probably be overt Singaporean support for a "UN" lead action against certain muslim states.
Personally, I feel that we should have accurate intelligence of TNI forces in Malaysia. And whether we have enough firepower to bear on them. Also, we will have to maintain complete maritime surveillance to keep the two forces as far apart as possible, at the same time, cut C3I between the two forces. In otherwords, complete destruction or takeover of non-friendly communications equipment and facilities. This I believe will be within our limits.
Once this is achieved, we need only concentrate on breaking one enemy, forcing them to surrender. The means? Its up to your creativity and imagination. Once one of them surrenders or signs a "Cease-fire," the other might not be as compelled to pursue a war which his ally has gave up on.
Calling for international assistance is a must. However, holding out the period, (totally unknown length of time it takes for a resolution), would be the risky part. As it depends on us being able to delay and defend until "help" arrives. Which means the war would be fought in at least two phases, a military phase: Green light to blow away and take land, and a political phase: Restrained action by SAF, and fight a preferably mobile defence, and launching deadly counter-attacks that hopefully can wear them down.
Which means, a swift and complete victory in a military sense might not be what we want to achieve. But a victory with as few consequences and backlashes as possible, may be what we really need.
And as what tripwire suggests, covert operations that take out the political leadership. How? Well, we can learn a few tricks from Israel. -
ok Guys we have been discussing about foreign assistance bababa......we seems neglect our airforce and army overseas in Australia ,New Zealand etc.It makes up at least 1/4 of our forces.
Such Advantage make aggressor think twice.They can't bomb australia hinderland just to wack our oversea forces.
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Re: China vs Taiwan
I'm quite sure that China cannot invade Taiwan without using nuclear weapons.
1. There are only three or four beaches on the rocky Taiwan island that can be used for a large scale amphibious landing. All of them are EXTREMELY heavily fortified. If you thought the German Atlantic Wall in WW2 that you saw in Saving Private Ryan was murderous, you haven't seen anything yet.
2. China does not have enough amphibious capability to land more than a division at a time (at best). Landing a division on Taiwan would be a joke. They would be outnumbered nearly 20 to 1, even if they got off the beach. The Normandy landings landed nine divisions, along with three airborne divisions dropped behind the beaches.
3. The distance between Taiwan and China is 100 miles. This is huge. The Taiwanese air force is one of the best in the world. It will be a massacre at sea. The Chinese air force is at best only an even match for the Taiwanese, and will not be able to stop numerous landing ships from being sent to the bottom. And don't rule out the Taiwanese Navy.
The best that China can do with only conventional weapons would be to bombard Taiwan with missiles. This would earn them nothing but UN anger and a US beating.
Of course, if China uses nukes, things may be quite different... -
Nah, I wasn't implying that they will do it literally. I am saying that they will do whatever it takes to send their troops across should they wish to. It is quite unlikely that China does not have a viable power projection capability.Originally posted by Mech^O^GATor:No nation will be silly enough making its troops swim across a strait regardless of its size 1000 swim less than 100 will survive.Its just suicidal.
Your " But hell, China would swim their troops across that narrow straits if they have to " Mmmm..quite silly and illogical -
Re: China vs Taiwan
I'm quite sure that China cannot invade Taiwan without using nuclear weapons.
1. There are only three or four beaches on the rocky Taiwan island that can be used for a large scale amphibious landing. All of them are EXTREMELY heavily fortified. If you thought the German Atlantic Wall in WW2 that you saw in Saving Private Ryan was murderous, you haven't seen anything yet.
2. China does not have enough amphibious capability to land more than a division at a time (at best). Landing a division on Taiwan would be a joke. They would be outnumbered nearly 20 to 1, even if they got off the beach. The Normandy landings landed nine divisions, along with three airborne divisions dropped behind the beaches.
3. The distance between Taiwan and China is 100 miles. This is huge. The Taiwanese air force is one of the best in the world. It will be a massacre at sea. The Chinese air force is at best only an even match for the Taiwanese, and will not be able to stop numerous landing ships from being sent to the bottom. And don't rule out the Taiwanese Navy.
The best that China can do with only conventional weapons would be to bombard Taiwan with missiles. This would earn them nothing but UN anger and a US beating.
Of course, if China uses nukes, things may be quite different...
I disagree sir...
Basically....i will say China will lauch a head on attack on to taiwan by
1)....lauching massive amount of surface to suface missile in to taiwan ..destroying the beach fortress, airfields, radar station, missile defence , Naval Base and the President Place .
2) massive air moves to gain air superioty in the Taiwan's strait with it's Su 30. The taiwan F-16 and Mirange isnt matchable to the SU. Air bombardment on to the beaches will be done.
3) Strike they will call. Massive Amphibious will be lauch.....mind u ...they can produce it ..more than a division . With StS missile in to the beaches ..taiwan will be outnumbered 4 to 1.( their amphibious assault quite hot leh.....look at they excersise abt 10,000 at a time......)
4)Commando will clear the way by air drop into middle taiwan.
5)Kilos and their 'Anti-Aegis' destroyer will block all trade route to taiwan from the Phillipines and japan....Kilo will block US support ship to.
6) massive airdrop along the way into taiwan....surrender form will be send.
i can confirm something lor....China will not so easy use Nuke one.....i dun think Nuke will be use lor....China want taiwan back.....no a taiwanese waste land..
then the war may not be stage in this Ten years time...Because for the olympics......in 2008...unless no choice ...if US intevent to much....
My ten cent view lah no offence........sorry...my exam coming..very brief. -
Originally posted by foxtrout8:
IF they have that much ammo to spare... S-S missiles are not exactly as plentiful as 7.62 shorts...
Basically....i will say China will lauch a head on attack on to taiwan by
1)....lauching massive amount of surface to suface missile in to taiwan ..destroying the beach fortress, airfields, radar station, missile defence , Naval Base and the President Place .
the whole point of having a fortified objective, be it a hill or a beach, is to hold that area and enhance the survivability of troops on it. it they can be simply taken out through saturation of firepower, then u have to take the "fortified" out of the objective...
and China's S-S missiles are not exactly tomahawks u know... one shot one kill? get real. the kidd class destroyers can already engage them. the ones who gets through may not be enough to cause the substantial damage u suggest.2) massive air moves to gain air superioty in the Taiwan's strait with it's Su 30. The taiwan F-16 and Mirange isnt matchable to the SU. Air bombardment on to the beaches will be done.
again, don't underestimate taiwan's AA capabilities. the defender always has certain advantage. i wouldn't write off their air force so easily.3) Strike they will call. Massive Amphibious will be lauch.....mind u ...they can produce it ..more than a division . With StS missile in to the beaches ..taiwan will be outnumbered 4 to 1.( their amphibious assault quite hot leh.....look at they excersise abt 10,000 at a time......)
yes, they have the men, but they don't have the ships to bring them all there at once. china has always been weak in this. muster fishing boats? don't bother... they'll be shot out of the water if they fail to gain control of the air and the sea and it is still questionable if they can do that with 7th fleet between them.
and what about logistics? we don't know the state of their logistics effectiveness. they may suk for all we know. they'll fry if troops manage to land but supplies and reinforcements don't reach them fast enough. u're not moving toy soldiers on a board here.
again, i disagree with your estimates of casualties from S-S missiles. how are they supposed to secure a beach head if they can't overwhelm an the defending garrisons on the beaches?
again, assumption. if they're dropped and the beach head fails to materialised, they'll be slaughtered.
4)Commando will clear the way by air drop into middle taiwan.5)Kilos and their 'Anti-Aegis' destroyer will block all trade route to taiwan from the Phillipines and japan....Kilo will block US support ship to.
do we have reasons to believe that a few kilo diesel subs can block 7th fleet? in fact, i see a lot of dead chinese submariners if they should decide to escalate by firing at US ships.6) massive airdrop along the way into taiwan....surrender form will be send.
u drop propaganda pamphlets only if u're winning. they may not win and it will further piss of the taiwanese. psychological warfare is not as simple as dropping leaflets asking your enemies to surrender. timing is everything.i can confirm something lor....China will not so easy use Nuke one.....i dun think Nuke will be use lor....China want taiwan back.....no a taiwanese waste land..
then they can't win and if they can't win, they won't initiate a disaster fully knowing that it will be exactly that.then the war may not be stage in this Ten years time...Because for the olympics......in 2008...unless no choice ...if US intevent to much....
don't be shallow. Beijing is more than willing to tolerate American presence here. lots of noise and table banging but they know they can't do shit about anything until they're stronger and to be strong, u need to engage, not renegade. and how exactly would u define "too much" ? Washington isn't stupid. they didn't give Taipei a blank cheque u know... so all parties are restrained in many ways.
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China would not want to take taiwan back through military actions. PRC knows that a forced reunification will not serve its purpose at all. PRC must first be able to catch up with ROC in terms of economy and development, thus PRC would not hastily launch any attack to secure Taiwan.
But, along the line of discussion. China will be unlikely to mount a successful invasion of Taiwan at all. Be it theirs superior number of SSMs, and 2nd generation fighters, or their Navy without carrier. The fact that the US always has an Aegis platform parked in Taiwan almost negates the potency of the SSMs. Taiwans fighter, are mostly state of the art western designs, can almost assure air-superiority over their Land. China, being unable to achieve air supermacy, and unable to bombard coastal forts, will only see their expeditionary force sunk.
Reminds me of the battle of britain. The Germans actually had more planes, and most of them equal to their Brit counter-parts.
PRC pilots would eject at sea, hopin for rescue, while ROC pilots would land in friendly territory.
From the way it looks, PRC will rule out the military option to invade Taiwan. At most, they will run Special operations against Taiwan, but nothing else. -
Basically I agree with Shotgun, China will mainly create a big hoohaa and not really whack the crap out of Taiwan literally. . .
Another point is that the Chinese mainland commoners will get pissed...
And if China whacks Taiwan. I doubt US will help Taiwan directly. They have stated their official take on the issue previously, they suppot the One-China policy which means China and Taiwan combined... -
How did this topic strayed from a "Malaysia-Indonesia-Singapore" situation to a "China-Taiwan" war ?
The economic impact on both countries, and the entire region will be adversely and severely affected, if ever war is to break out.
China is very much aware of the economic losses, which will put their economic records back by almost a decade, if ever war is to break out over the recovery of Taiwan.
Their reserves will be severely drained, international trade and industry will be adversely affected that will take at least another decade to rebuild, and more importantly the numbers of human lives that will be lost on both sides.
This will put paid to their dream of ever matching up to USA.
Until the Olympics is held in Beijing, Taiwan will have a field day thumbing their nose at China and it will not be helpful to themselves and to the region at large. -
Originally posted by dkhoo:OK, tripwire, you've made yourself clear. I guess we just have to agree to disagree I simply am less paranoid about our neighbors than you and do believe that they will behave decently (or at least rationally) if any conflict occurs. However, if the situation becomes critical, then I agree that the doomsday machine will have to go into action
my idea... or should i say... position... is that.... we switch on the doomsday machine first... and let the enemy knows... that the war is fast approaching a point of NO RETURN... that should hurry them to the table of negotiation sooner rather then later... and understandably... if they dont come to the table soon... SAF might simply choose to resolve the problem... without them.... 
Actually, an equally interesting scenario would be SEA vs China, centered around the Spratleys. Right now, this is very unlikely, since China does not even have the power projection capability to invade Taiwan (their probable first priority). However, if this changes, it would be interesting to consider this. ITS also very unlikely... that the 2 most powerful military in SEA (namely singapore and thailand) would wanna get involved in a war with china over the spratelys.. since both nations does not posses any interest in south china sea... secondly... the islands are not claimed in totallity by all side... other then china... this puts to question.. wat if china attack an atoll claim by pino and china only...?? will RMN or TNI-AL come to the rescue of the pino navy?? i sincerely doubt so... 
Yet another interesting scenario is Thailand vs Malaysia. As many of you know, southern Thailand suffers from some unrest since it is a mostly Muslim region in a largely Buddhist nation. If this region decides to secede to Malaysia, ethnic violence flares up, and the Malaysian Armed Forces decide to intervene, such a limited conflict is conceivable. Incidentally, the Malaysian media also use Thailand and even Indonesia as bogeymen, not just Singapore. This is business as usual in most democracies. Dirty business, but still business. a scenario between malaysia and thailand... is not entertaining... becos.. the thais will simply tied MAF up like a bondage girl and pull out the whips.....
The last scenario that is possible is Malaysia vs Indonesia, or Brunei + Malaysia vs Indonesia. This might be the result of the central government in Java losing control, or being toppled in a coup, and the various provinces and islands splintering into many smaller officially or unofficially autonomous bodies. Once such a Pandora's box opens, East Malaysia may be under low level siege from numerous irregulars, and Brunei may get dragged in. Singapore may then pile on, since we are allies with Brunei and friends with Malaysia. This would be a guerilla war with onerous rules of engagement -- Vietnam writ large. This is actually the kind of fight that SAF is really bad at, and TNI is really good at. Again, interesting to consider, even if President Megawati's government seems solid at present. this scenario is odd... if indonesia is in chaos and the country is divided... i think civil war and civil anarchy will be a bigger concern for TNI then attacking MAF or RBAF.... so.. while some rogue TNI elements might decide to raid malaysia for a quick buck... their purpose would be more on financial rewards rather then attempting to capture malaysian territory or even attempt to take on MAF.... lastly... wat 'SINGAPORE is a good friend of malaysia'??? since when??? -
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