Troubles in UK wrote:
The Johnny-come-lately move by URA to dampen the speculative madness in real estate is not out of concern but out of fear that banks may come unstuck. FEAR that a sudden convulsion in credit market in NY and London may see a stampede out of all assets into cash. This results in extraordinary high spike in LIBOR rate. Remember most loan contracts are priced in LIBOR + X% not FED Fund rate. Banks may have to make margin calls on developers. The latter has no money.
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The credit crisis is far from over and British shareholders are at serious risk of becoming its next victims, the Bank of England has warned.
..the bank warns that the UK stock market is “particularly vulnerable” to a downturn.
Almost all British workers have money invested in shares – either directly or indirectly through their pensions and life assurance plans – and could lose out if share prices suffer a significant fall.
The bank warns that there is a significant risk of the City and Britain's financial system becoming embroiled in further turmoil as a result of the credit crisis gripping the world's money markets.
The “credit crunch”, which has already caused a run on Northern Rock bank, is far from over, it says.
And today, retail entrepreneur Sir Philip Green warned that the shockwaves from the crisis will be felt throughout the economy.
“Money's going to be more expensive, there's going to be a concern or an awareness that it's going to be tougher,” the Topshop and Wallis owner told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the bank also signals that first-time buyers and buy-to-let landlords are the most at risk of defaulting on their mortgages and bankruptcy in the months ahead.
First-time buyers are now paying 20 per cent of their salaries in mortgage interest repayments — the highest proportion since before the last property crash — and are among those who are “particularly exposed” because they have had to “stretch themselves more than would normally be the case in order to get on the housing ladder.
The bank also raises its ”danger level“ warning on all parts of the financial system and warns that the value of shares – known in the City as equities – is now at risk.
”The financial system is more than usually vulnerable to further adverse shocks — sourced either in recent events or from new sources, such as the equity markets or a weakening commercial property market,“ the report says.
The credit crunch occurred after hundreds of thousands of US home owners defaulted on their mortgages, leaving banks and investors across the world out of pocket. The resulting squeeze pushed up borrowing rates in the UK as banks attempted to recoup their money.
However, it warns: ”A deeper downturn in the United States and rising credit defaults could trigger a further round of asset price falls. Equity markets seem particularly vulnerable."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...
There you have it. Speculation may drive GDP percentage up and looks good an great for awhile. Speculation depends on banks credit. Banks depends on CDOs market to pass risk back to commoners. This market is kaput. Otherwise, the 3 local banks may become Chinese owned banks. Banks are now funding developers on no money down schemes. They may end up with the apartments. That will be slump for years and years.
Posted on 10/27/07 at 00:00:55
taken from here (in the comments section):
A Sinister Development
Columns
The development charge increase is obnoxious in that again, the government is taking more money from the people.