Asian Economy
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/GD09Dk01.html
SPEAKING FREELY
Oil for dollars, and dollars for US deficit
By Richard Benson
The Asians remain shocked and in disbelief. Just when Japan, China,
Taiwan and Hong Kong had accumulated enough dollars to buy oil to keep
them warm for many winters, it's all over. In broad daylight, the
Americans and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
cheered as the price of oil popped up from US$30 a barrel to more than
$50.
Indeed, this jump in the price of oil increases the world's daily
oil consumption bill of 84 million barrels a day to $4.2 billion, from
$2.5 billion (or $1.5 trillion a year from $900 billion). The world now
has to shell out an additional $600 billion a year of "lucky bucks" to
oil-producing countries just to stay in motion.
The bigger shock, however, is in the devaluation of dollar holdings
of US Treasury debt. The rise in oil prices guarantees that the value
of the US dollar will be pushed down even further, and stay down. Now
that China is the No 2 oil importer and Japan is No 3 - with the rest
of Asia very thirsty for oil as well - you can understand why the
Asians must find a way to protect themselves.
The US strategy for using oil to finance its deficit is, of course,
brilliant. America's elected officials knew that at some point those
independent foreign central banks would start getting edgy about buying
more dollars to pay for the United States' war and deficits. The $650
billion trade deficit is breathing down the dollar's neck. So which
central banks can the US continue to use as the fall guys to buy the
dollar? Why not the Persian Gulf oil states - but where would they get
the dollars to buy US Treasuries? Well, with the Chinese piling up
dollars and growing like crazy, at some point the oil market had to
tighten. It was only a matter of time before the Chinese would start
bidding up the price of oil. The Asians, therefore, are hung out to dry
when the price of oil rises because they have to spend more of their
dollars on oil.
As the price of oil goes up, extra money floods into the Gulf
kingdoms. With the US secretary of defense putting troops all over the
ground in the Middle East, and those nimble aircraft carriers nearby
and ready to deliver the "shock and awe of sudden democracy" to the
Gulf monarchs, it's a sure bet that America's OPEC buddies will stash
their newly found Asian lucky bucks into good old American Treasury
notes.
With such a simple policy to fund its deficit for another year,
it's no wonder the United States can get by without any brain power at
the Treasury Department. In effect, the US and its Gulf Arab allies
just pulled off the biggest central-bank heist in the history of the
world. The price of oil just went up 60% or more, which really cuts
down to size that $3.4 trillion of net foreign holdings of US financial
assets. As a loyal American, one would like to cheer one's government's
deft move to pick the pockets of our trading and financing partners.
Moreover, the US gets the Arabs to fund a large share of our deficit,
subsidize our interest rates, and help keep our taxes low for another
year. Surely I can afford to buy another gas-guzzling sport-ute, get a
rifle, and wave a flag.
The United States is extracting tribute on oil from the world. If
the world wants Middle Eastern oil, it can pay for it through the Saudi
branch of the US Treasury. Why do the heads of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Qatar, etc, hold dollars? Because they want to keep
the money and the power. The ruling family of Saudi Arabia controls 25%
of the world oil reserves and is completely dependent on oil revenues
for its survival. Tens of thousands of Saudi princes live off lavish
royal stipends. Think of Arabia as a family firm. If the dollar goes
down in value, the Saudi royal family still gets to keep hundreds of
billions of dollars. But, if they don't buy dollars, why would the US
keep them in power? It would simply not be in our interests to do so.
Remember when Saddam Hussein talked about pricing Iraq's oil in euros?
"Shock and awe" quietly followed.
This program of oil for dollars and dollars for the US Treasury
deficit is the simple tribute that we, as the superpower, can expect.
The United States is well paid for keeping the world's supply of black
gold safe and available to all. Unlike the Vietnam era - when the US
was trying to finance guns and butter - getting others to pay now for
our guns allows us to milk the oil out of the sand and turn it into
butter.
The next question will be how the Asians respond to a 60% hike in the price of oil.
like this lor..keep paying..what can one do?
I edited by previous post to make it more cogent.
We need to cut down on our dependence on oil for electricity. The first thing we can do is cut our electricity usage because at this point in time, even a little bit of savings goes a long way. While campaigns and levies have mainly been targeted at the common people, actually there is still a lot of slack that can be trimmed in the private and public sectors. What we need is some focused effort and thinking to tackle the immediate problem of reducing electricity wastage in common shared surrounding where such wastage usually happens. Making saving electricity a part of the general Go Green agenda I feel is not an efficient method to address the problem. The Green agenda while laudable is a global issue that cannot be immediately solved. The problem of cutting oil dependency is a matter that can be resolved if we treat it the same way we treat the water dependency issue. Fair standards must be set and incentives, not only levies are imposed. In this way the people can be mobilized effectively. Otherwise its all just for show and that would be really shameful.
DO u know that the Dollar system was flawed from the very begiinning?
DO u know that the Dollar system was flawed from the very begiinning?
It may be flawed, but beware of influence from crackpots discussing USA money system.