Temasek selling Merrill Lynch at a loss
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Originally posted by jojobeach:
So if you cannot prove me wrong leh ? What are you planning to do ?Dissapear and start a new nick again ? LOL
So far you are the real coward. Why you keep changing nick har ? Too ashamed to use your old one ?
C'mon lah.
All you do is do this stupid challenge shit. So far have you posted anything of substance ? NO !
You're just a lousy loser for all we care.
Do yourself us all a favor and stop acting like a jerk
Changing of nickname is something that is beyond my control because there is an invisible hand that is trying to prevent me from exposing the nonsense post by the forummers here. So if FireIce decided that she wants to protect the interest and reputation for people like Eagle, whom she actively engaged in tuition activities, she will banned me.
Instead of trying to crawl yourself out of the situation, why dont you just take up the challenge and say OK, I will post what you said I should post and let me get on with proving you wrong.
Jojo, I am sure many people are waiting on the side line for you to say YES. and I am sure it will be in their interest to know that if indeed you are a liar.
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O o O dun try to act investment savvy here. Even the most experienced stock and property investors cannot predict how is the market going to head in the future, and u think u can?
Warren Buffett once said: "Invest within ur competency." What is ur competency then? Property or stock.
Do even talk about stock investment (in fundamental analysis aspect), do u and andrew know what is p/e and p/b ratio? what they mean and what they indicate? Do u know how to calculate intrinsic value? (there are 3 methods to compute and each method cater to different stock)
Do even talk about stock investment (in technical analysis aspect), do u and andrew know what is SMA 20, 50? MACD? trend lines and so on?
One last thing, andrew always like to praise himself about STI will fall and rise in so-so months. Please la, i got one thing to tell u, STI will forever rise in the long run as long as singapore dun fall, so u can only coin urself as a speculator not investor. Try to prove me wrong andrew, for what i quoted is stated by the father of value investing, benjamin graham.
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Originally posted by O o O o:
Changing of nickname is something that is beyond my control because there is an invisible hand that is trying to prevent me from exposing the nonsense post by the forummers here. So if FireIce decided that she wants to protect the interest and reputation for people like Eagle, whom she actively engaged in tuition activities, she will banned me.
Instead of trying to crawl yourself out of the situation, why dont you just take up the challenge and say OK, I will post what you said I should post and let me get on with proving you wrong.
Jojo, I am sure many people are waiting on the side line for you to say YES. and I am sure it will be in their interest to know that if indeed you are a liar.
Why do you need me to say yes for you to speak your mind ?This is a discussion forum. You got nothing to contribute.. ofcors Fireice will ban you.
So far.. all you do is sprout nonsense and do stupid challenges, while twisting other people's words around.
Fireice is doing a great job suppressing trolls like you.
So, why don't you start contributing something worth reading instead of your challenging nonsense ?
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Originally posted by Uncertain:
O o O dun try to act investment savvy here. Even the most experienced stock and property investors cannot predict how is the market going to head in the future, and u think u can?
Warren Buffett once said: "Invest within ur competency." What is ur competency then? Property or stock.
Do even talk about stock investment (in fundamental analysis aspect), do u and andrew know what is p/e and p/b ratio? what they mean and what they indicate? Do u know how to calculate intrinsic value? (there are 3 methods to compute and each method cater to different stock)
Do even talk about stock investment (in technical analysis aspect), do u and andrew know what is SMA 20, 50? MACD? trend lines and so on?
One last thing, andrew always like to praise himself about STI will fall and rise in so-so months. Please la, i got one thing to tell u, STI will forever rise in the long run as long as singapore dun fall, so u can only coin urself as a speculator not investor. Try to prove me wrong andrew, for what i quoted is stated by the father of value investing, benjamin graham.
Uncertain, I believe you need to read my earlier discussion with Maurizio13 before making accusation of me trying to predict the market.
It is Maurzio13 who claim he has predicted ML price will fall 6 months ago and talking about markting timing. I am merely asking him not to talk like an armchair critics reporting on yesterday's news and tell us what will ML price be in 3 months time.
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Yup Uncertain. Indeed O3 was debunking the theory of market timing.
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Changing of nickname is something that is beyond my control because there is an invisible hand that is trying to prevent me from exposing the nonsense post by the forummers here. So if FireIce decided that she wants to protect the interest and reputation for people like Eagle, whom she actively engaged in tuition activities, she will banned me.
Utter rubbish.
Firstly, talking without proof at all (part in red).
Secondly, you are banned because of your childishness. Do you still need anyone to show you the nicks you created in which you insult the moderators in the nicks? You have also been banned because you created threads in Speaker's Corner just to flame others, and NOT for discussions.
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Originally posted by jojobeach:
Why do you need me to say yes for you to speak your mind ?This is a discussion forum. You got nothing to contribute.. ofcors Fireice will ban you.
So far.. all you do is sprout nonsense and do stupid challenges, while twisting other people's words around.
Fireice is doing a great job suppressing trolls like you.
So, why don't you start contributing something worth reading instead of your challenging nonsense ?
Jojo, are you trying to sneak your way out of this because you know that I can prove you wrong about your claim that Singapore island wide property prices will sink together?
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Originally posted by eagle:
Utter rubbish.
Firstly, talking without proof at all (part in red).
Secondly, you are banned because of your childishness. Do you still need anyone to show you the nicks you created in which you insult the moderators in the nicks? You have also been banned because you created threads in Speaker's Corner just to flame others, and NOT for discussions.
I believe your "contribution" in this thread will speak for itself, and those who have been reading will know who is the child in this forum.Proof? why dont you prove to me your claim that LIES = Deerhunter = Bentsb05 first?
Or am I suppose to treat your like a crybaby and give in to you?
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Originally posted by O o O o:
Jojo, are you trying to sneak your way out of this because you know that I can prove you wrong about your claim that Singapore island wide property prices will sink together?
OK. Define your understanding of the word " SINK".
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Yawns
Gazelle attempted to change topic to me right after his rubbish has been pointed out.
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Originally posted by jojobeach:
Why do you need me to say yes for you to speak your mind ?This is a discussion forum. You got nothing to contribute.. ofcors Fireice will ban you.
So far.. all you do is sprout nonsense and do stupid challenges, while twisting other people's words around.
Fireice is doing a great job suppressing trolls like you.
So, why don't you start contributing something worth reading instead of your challenging nonsense ?
Yet again, Gazelle attempts to bring in discussions on property prices on a thread on Temasek.
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Originally posted by O o O o:
Dear Maurizio13,I believe I have told you before that I have lost the thrill and excitement of making a fool out of you.
And this is why.
1) These quote will mean nothing to you because you have ZERO experience in trading stock and thats why you believe you have the ability to time the market like Mr. AndrewPKyap in this forum.
Let me put you a challenge here. Instead of continuing with your armchair critics stuns of reporting yesterdays news like its your prediction, let me ask you. Do you think ML share price will head north or south in 3 months time? ie. Oct 2008.
I really hope you will take this opportunity to prove to us that you are as smart as what you said.
2) When I posted the quotes, I did 2 things intentionally, first is to remove one of the quote and 2nd I didnt show you the link. The reason is because, I am wait for you to sprout more nonsense to argue about timing the market.
I am not sure why you quoted George Soros, did he teach you to time the market? Or are you trying to use BIG NAME to repackage your bulllshit?
And BTW, dont twist words here, I am comparing gambling to timing the market, not gambling to investing in stocks. You should know thats a whole lot of difference if you have the any experience trading share on th xchange.
“I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two.”
http://www.fivecentnickel.com/2008/03/25/investment-insights-market-timing/
The pro's predicament. For market timing to be an effective investment strategy, you have to be right twice: once when you sell to exit the market, and again when you buy to re-enter. Being correct on the first call is challenging, but twice in a row is even more difficult. Although professional market timers—those who offer informed buy/sell advice to their clients—often claim success, decades of research have found little theoretical or empirical evidence that active market timing works. Indeed, a study that analyzed the five-year performance of 25 experienced professional timers found luck to be just as important as the timers' skill in determining performance results.1 And while market timers can reduce portfolio volatility (simply by being out of the market for periods of time), researchers have found no evidence that they consistently boost returns.
3) The FACTS of the matter is that Temasek acquisition into ML is a marriage deal, whereby the ML INVITE Temasek to take up a stake in the company. Hence please dont confuse yourself with trading stocks through the xchange. If Temasek refused to take up a stake in ML 6 months ago, do you think Temasek will be given a chance to increase their stake now? Since ML desperately need to raise fresh capital 6 months ago, if Temasek pass that opportunity, I am pretty sure some other SWF would have taken up the stake. If that happen, can you tell us, what is left for Temasek?
4) If you are wondering why I switch my nickname, its not because I am banned, its because FireIce disable some feature in my account to slow me down.
Whats new, she is your MAMA right?
1) Given the set of economic circumstances in current US economy, I would say that Merrill Lynch would be trading in the AVERAGE share price of around USD 27 to USD 20 for the month of October. Provided the US economy does not promote aggressive monetary expansion to stimulate the economy and inflation levels are maintained.Now my question. Do you have the guts to put your money where your mouth is and bet against me?
2) Market timing is not for everybody, it's definitely not for people like you, who have insufficient knowledge and information. If your investment philosophy is the same as Warren Buffett or George Soros, then I guess you would have been a billionaire right now won't you. There is a difference between timing the bottom of the market and predicting the market (whether share prices will be substantially lower) based on economic fundamentals. The same person whom you quote, also made this prediction in 2007. It's not possible to predict the exact location of the stock market exactly, but it is possible to predict the general movement of the market based on leading indicators. If what you said is true, then those information that intelligent investors rely on would be redundant, everybody should just be like you, grab any investment and hold it forever. Geez! I think you qualify to be a portfolio manager now, given that there is nothing to distinguish you and Warren Buffett.
You had basic knowledge from your Marketing Degree course, so don't purport to be be an expert in finance. So were you long or short in equities from 2007 to present?Recessions can't be avoided forever. In the last few days, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He's not sure, however, that unemployment will go up next year. In fact, he's surprised that all the weakness we're seeing in housing hasn't affected the jobs market ... yet. Here's what he is sure about: "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22252384
The Payoff to Market Timing
In a 1986 article, a group of researchers1 raised the shackles of many an active portfolio manager by estimating that as much as 93.6% of the variation in quarterlyperformance at professionally managed portfolios could be explained by the mix of stocks, bonds and cash at these portfolios. In a different study in 1992, Shilling examined the effect on your annual returns of being able to stay out of the market during bad months. He concluded that an investor who would have missed the 50 weakest months of the market between 1946 and 1991 would have seen his annual returns almost double from 11.2% to 19%. Ibbotson examined the relative importance of asset allocation and security selection of 94 balanced mutual funds and 58 pension funds, all of which had to make both asset allocation and security selection decisions.
Damodaran A., Investment Philosophies, Wiley Finance
I forgot, you are not into reading books to gain knowledge, I guess this abstract would have been no consequence to you too.
Finally, risk averse investors who wait for the absolute bottom before they will invest often fail at this strategy because timing it is just about impossible.
Damodaran A. Investment Philosophies, Wiley Finance.
I know this is mentally challenging for you, but try to distinguish the difference.
Fundamental Indicators
You can try to time markets by developing simple signals based upon macro
economic variables. In this section, we will consider some of these signals – some old and some new – that have been used by portfolio managers as market timing tools. (e.g. short term interest rates, treasury bond rates, business cycles, etc)
3) If Temasek didn't take up the offer in Dec 2007, they can still acquire shares from the open market (at much lower price) or purchase the current share offer from Merrill Lynch now. If they don't raise the required capital (Temasek had effectively shackled itself to Merrill Lynch, they can't don't exercise the option to purchase the shares, else they will lose more) assuming that no investors are bullish about the prospects of Merrill Lynch, then the shares will definitely drop further.
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Originally posted by O o O o:
I believe your "contribution" in this thread will speak for itself, and those who have been reading will know who is the child in this forum.Proof? why dont you prove to me your claim that LIES = Deerhunter = Bentsb05 first?
Or am I suppose to treat your like a crybaby and give in to you?
why don't you get Deerhunter and Bentsb05 to post here and declare you are really not them ?
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Maurizio,
I'm actually very surprised Temasek didn't do their homework before buying in to ML.
Even a little known trader John Paulson, can make 3-4 billions betting on the meltdown to happen.
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Originally posted by jojobeach:
Maurizio,
I'm actually very surprised Temasek didn't do their homework before buying in to ML.
Even a little known trader John Paulson, can make 3-4 billions betting on the meltdown to happen.
It's highly suspect that they might not have based their investment decision on fundamental analysis and due dilligence.I think old man Lee just say buy and they go into the market to buy.
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Originally posted by jojobeach:
why don't you get Deerhunter and Bentsb05 to post here and declare you are really not them ?
I have already proven DeerHunter = LIES.
But as usual, this troll just attempts to twist away.
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There is a big difference between lionnoisy and Gazelle.
lionnoisy would argue, but when notices that his points cannot out rival your's, he will back out from the discussion.
But with Gazelle, he will go on and on and on and on fighting on losing grounds at the expense of looking idiotic.
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and who r the brave ones who stand corrected?
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O o O,
Your forecasting methods haven't been exactly accurate in the past.
Originally posted by O o O in Feb 2008:
I am already betting that these are good investment and it will yield reasonably good returns in 12 to 18 months considering the limited investment opportunities available right now.
I am just responding to what some forumers (might include you) are saying that they can make better returns from putting money in Australia fixed deposit than CPF 3.5%. So I am asking why didnt the australia pension fund deposit their money in fixed deposit?
If you are confident about Temasek and GIC making wrong decision on ML, Citi, and UBS, are you willing to bet against this investments?
Place you bet here and we revisit this thread in 12 months time?
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Originally posted by O o O o:
Uncertain, I believe you need to read my earlier discussion with Maurizio13 before making accusation of me trying to predict the market.
It is Maurzio13 who claim he has predicted ML price will fall 6 months ago and talking about markting timing. I am merely asking him not to talk like an armchair critics reporting on yesterday's news and tell us what will ML price be in 3 months time.
Then why do u even bother to challenge jojo about the property market movement since u know such prediction is not plausible?
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Originally posted by Uncertain:
Then why do u even bother to challenge jojo about the property market movement since u know such prediction is not plausible?
Because he opposes for the sake of opposing, without putting much brain work into it. -
Originally posted by eagle:
I have already proven DeerHunter = LIES.
But as usual, this troll just attempts to twist away.
Ah yes.. and LIES = OoO.. that we know also.....
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He managed that private fund with great success from 1957 to 1969. Given the secrecy of private investment companies, it's impossible to know to what degree he engaged in portfolio-turnover and market-timing. But we do know he pulled off one of the most dramatic market-timing moves of all time. While the exciting bull market of the late 1960s had investors still piling into the stock market in 1969, Buffett walked totally away from it. He liquidated his investment company, telling his investors they would probably be better off in tax-exempt bonds for awhile. Exquisite market-timing? The 1969-70 bear market began within months. Even the blue chip stocks of the Dow plunged 36% in that bear market.
Buffett stayed away from the stock market for several years. Then after yet another bear market, that of 1973-74, in which the Dow plunged 45%, Buffett thought prices were low enough, and returned to the market. In a famous 1974 interview he said, "This is the time to start investing again." And he did, using his control of publicly traded Berkshire Hathaway as the holding company for his investments.
http://www.thebullandbear.com/articles/2007/0207-buffet.html
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OMAHA, Nebraska: Warren Buffett's timing is once again impeccable. His six-month-old bond insurance business will likely be the primary beneficiary of the latest credit rating downgrades on Ambac Financial Group and MBIA.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway started its own bond insurer late last year as credit problems began to mount for others, and those problems have only worsened since then.
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Warren Buffett has his own Investment Strategy and Market Timing Newsletter.
How to Use the Warren Buffett Holdings Newsletter
Overview
This newsletter will track and monitor all the publicly announced holdings, as regulated by the regular SEC reporting requirements, of the Warren Buffett investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. These securities holdings will be tracked by our computerized tracking systems to determine any new buy or sell action signals.Investment Strategy and Market Timing Update
Each 'action alert' and 'buy or sell' signal is based on the concept of protecting trading capital and controlling stock market trading risk. Our best trading results have been generated when the stock market, the market sectors covered in this newsletter and our current cycle analysis using proprietary short term cycles are moving Up. These cycle forecasts offer short term overview of key support and resistance levels in the market indices we track which help guide the short term trading decision making process. When the overall stock market, sectors and individual stocks are in directional movement cyclic down, we try to control risk by observing and waiting for low risk trading opportunities from the sidelines.Market Indicies Cyclic Update
The major stock market directional movement trend is based on our analysis of the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial average. Support levels are price level areas where it is expected that buyers will come in to support that trading level. A convincing break below support levels "Sell Signal" would have that index trading within a new lower trading channel. Conversely, resistance levels are price level areas where it is expected that sellers will come in resistance of that trading level. A convincing break above that resistance level area "Buy Signal" would have that index trading within a new higher trading channel.Bruno Oscillator: Overbought/Oversold
In major market up and down swings, investments tend to move higher and lower than anyone would ever expect prices to achieve. At times, all of our 'Price and Time' cycles fall into extended overbought or oversold price levels. This condition often suggests that prices should invert shortly if the known fundamentals remain in tact. Selling overbought oscillator conditions are not as risky as buying oversold conditions in that prices can always move lower causing loss of trading capital should it be revealed that fundamentals have changed.Recommended Strategy
The 'Recommended Strategy' column of each issue consists of your Editor's comments and suggested strategy. These comments should be used as a guide based on the previous studies that the creator of this cycle analysis has experienced. It should also be noted that subscribers could make their decisions based on the Timing Model which consist of the cycles themselves and that the Editor's comments involve the personal element of emotion and tend to be more conservative than the actual Timing Model. We look forward to a long and mutually profitable relationship with you.