Rollin' good times over
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Reuters - Monday, August 11 By Jan Dahinten and Kevin Lim
SINGAPORE, Aug 11 - Singapore's economy contracted in the second quarter and the government forecasts exports to fall this year for the first time since 2001, a sign that sagging growth is becoming a bigger worry for Asia than inflation.
The government on Monday forecast non-oil domestic exports would fall 2-4 percent in 2008, against an earlier estimate of 2-4 percent growth, and predicted the economy would grow at a lower end of a weaker 4-5 percent forecast.
In the second quarter, the economy contracted at a annualised rate of 6 percent after seasonal adjustments, its worst performance in five years and in line with market expectations. Year-on-year the economy grew 2.1 percent.
(For a graphic of GDP data, click on: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/SG_GDPQ0808.gif)
Singapore's heavy dependence on trade makes the $160 billion economy a good gauge of how the global slowdown is affecting Asia. Non-oil domestic exports to the United States fell 21 percent in the second quarter, while shipments to European Union dropped by 12 percent.
The Singapore dollar, the central bank's main policy tool, slumped to a near six-month low around S$1.41 to the U.S. dollar.
"The balance of risk is shifting away from inflation toward growth as seen from the correction of the Singapore dollar last week," said Kit Wei Zheng, an economist at Citigroup.
NO RECESSION
Like many Asian countries, Singapore has been grappling with inflation even as economic growth slows. But officials suggested on Monday that inflation may have peaked and said -- while not expecting at technical recession -- that there will be no quick turnaround in global growth.
"The macroeconomic dynamics will remain fluid over the next 12 to 18 months. It is too early to tell what 2009 will bring," Ravi Menon, a permanent secretary at the trade ministry, told reporters.
"Current indications are that global economic growth will not see a quick turnaround."
Construction grew 17.4 percent year-on-year and the financial sector grew 10.2 percent in the second quarter, but manufacturing shrank 5.2 percent.
Manufacturing, which accounts for about a quarter of economic activity, is expected to slow, reflecting weak U.S. and European demand.
Given that, economists said it was unlikely that the central bank will further tighten monetary policy at its next meeting in October, barring a spike in oil prices.
"We believe our policy remains appropriate," said Ong Chong Tee, managing director of central bank the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The central bank steers monetary policy by managing the Singapore dollar's <SGD=> nominal effective exchange rate -- its relative value compared with a basket of currencies of trading partners -- rather than by adjusting interest rates. The trading band and the currencies in the basket are kept secret.
The bank moved the centre of the band up in April, its most aggressive policy change since the 2003 SARS epidemic, to tame inflation that reached a 26-year high in June. (Additional reporting by Saeed Azhar and Charmian Kok, editing by Neil Chatterjee and Tomasz Janowski)
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On the contrary, Tharman said Singapore is not heading for recession. As a Finance Minister, he should have all the facts and figures and know how well or bad the economy is performing. Such words from him really are disappointing.
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SINGAPORE : Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam on Sunday gave the assurance that Singapore is not heading for a recession.
Speaking at a community event, Mr Tharman said, "From all indications we have at this point, I don’t think we’re heading for a recession. But there will be discomfort on the ground. Unfortunately, the fuel price increase in Malaysia does mean that vegetable, poultry and some other prices will go up. We can’t avoid that. Fortunately, rice prices globally are coming down.
"But overall, we’re in a situation which isn’t temporary — this will be with us for a while. Commodity prices are much higher than what they used to be. But we’re tackling it, and we’re confident of tackling it — both through the government’s measures, the Growth Dividends, the GST Credits, as well as the way in which you see a lot of community initiatives on the ground."
Mr Tharman was speaking to reporters at the Entrepreneur—in—You Carnival at Republic Polytechnic, where some 7,000 people turned up to pick up tips on starting their own business.
The carnival included forums, workshops and an exhibition to nurture business acumen.
There were also winning business presentations by tertiary institutions, and a presentation of the 2008 Youth Enterprise Awards.
The People’s Association organised the event to encourage Singaporeans to be entrepreneurial. — CNA/ms 8 June 2008
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Originally posted by Fantagf:
On the contrary, Tharman said Singapore is not heading for recession. As a Finance Minister, he should have all the facts and figures and know how well or bad the economy is performing. Such words from him really are disappointing.
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SINGAPORE : Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam on Sunday gave the assurance that Singapore is not heading for a recession.
Speaking at a community event, Mr Tharman said, "From all indications we have at this point, I don’t think we’re heading for a recession. But there will be discomfort on the ground. Unfortunately, the fuel price increase in Malaysia does mean that vegetable, poultry and some other prices will go up. We can’t avoid that. Fortunately, rice prices globally are coming down.
"But overall, we’re in a situation which isn’t temporary — this will be with us for a while. Commodity prices are much higher than what they used to be. But we’re tackling it, and we’re confident of tackling it — both through the government’s measures, the Growth Dividends, the GST Credits, as well as the way in which you see a lot of community initiatives on the ground."
Mr Tharman was speaking to reporters at the Entrepreneur—in—You Carnival at Republic Polytechnic, where some 7,000 people turned up to pick up tips on starting their own business.
The carnival included forums, workshops and an exhibition to nurture business acumen.
There were also winning business presentations by tertiary institutions, and a presentation of the 2008 Youth Enterprise Awards.
The People’s Association organised the event to encourage Singaporeans to be entrepreneurial. — CNA/ms 8 June 2008
Ask that botak go home and eat roti prata lah. Last time also said our salary not need to increase to match inflation...what the hell was he talking??Of cos singapore not in recession lah, to them only mah, if they said recession, it will be very hard to justify their next millions pay increases ya. So, they dun wan to scare us, just like USA, said no recession, but now also cannot tarhan liao, go into recession.
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we have been warned the market is not so good,like in many
other countries.It is not news.
Aussie bank also warns their people.
But IR etc will help us a little bit here and there.
RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165909-601,00.html
THE Reserve Bank is predicting an economic slowdown so severe that 100,000 people will be thrown out of work in the next 12 months, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 per cent and possibly higher if the financial crisis worsens.
The bank has slashed its forecast for economic growth over the coming year, and expects job creation to slip to its lowest level in seven years.
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If the economic goes down and the IR is to stop and retract, guess it is going to be hell in singapore.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
Ask that botak go home and eat roti prata lah. Last time also said our salary not need to increase to match inflation...what the hell was he talking??Of cos singapore not in recession lah, to them only mah, if they said recession, it will be very hard to justify their next millions pay increases ya. So, they dun wan to scare us, just like USA, said no recession, but now also cannot tarhan liao, go into recession.
Agree with you. The old one said few months ago what happen in US will not affect Singapore, what a lie.
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A few months ago oil price r predicted to rise over US$200 at the end of the year. Now they predicted it to be about US$110+. Economic situation r dynamic and changes with time.
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I thought P4P elites are very good with predicting the economy and planning for the future.
Right now they are reduced to the intellect of common man and sometimes moron.
If oil is cheaper it will spur economic growth and not reduce it.
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Originally posted by Fantagf:
Agree with you. The old one said few months ago what happen in US will not affect Singapore, what a lie.
honest mistake. -
I thought P4P elites are very good with predicting the economy and planning for the future.
Right now they are reduced to the intellect of common man and sometimes moron.
I always thought and consider the PAP r like CEOs of a company and not some kind of godlike character u depict. Nobody in tis world know the future
If oil is cheaper it will spur economic growth and not reduce it.
It is about the dynamic and ever changing face of an economy. It is not about whether does oil help our economy or worsen it
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CEOs????
100% correct!!!
Yah! They are like CEOs, exploiting the population for money and more money so that they can get more pay.
Not godlike characters, but DEMAND god like pay when compared to other DEVELOPED countries???
God or no god, they are definitely not ethical politicians.
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I think the P4P leaders should look for another fortune teller, apparently the current fortune teller's prediction is not very accurate, in a span of about a month, the predictions can vary from good growth to recession.
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Agreed M13, a bunch of stupid ministers,why they r paid S$million and yet cant 4c thing in ahead!!!!
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Yah! They are like CEOs, exploiting the population for money and more money so that they can get more pay.
Not godlike characters, but DEMAND god like pay when compared to other DEVELOPED countries???
If u compare between politicians, u may be right. If u compare between CEOs, then they r not taking ridiculous pay. It is just a mindset issue now. Does politician deserves to take a pay cut and a complete loss of privacy to join politics ? Do u think CEO should get lesser pay ? If not, then why does politician have to get lesser pay ?
And recession means negative growth in GDP for 2 years or more. Now it is still not clear whether will we have recession or not. There is no U turn in announcement because there is no confirmation
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Originally posted by stupidissmart:
If u compare between politicians, u may be right. If u compare between CEOs, then they r not taking ridiculous pay. It is just a mindset issue now. Does politician deserves to take a pay cut and a complete loss of privacy to join politics ? Do u think CEO should get lesser pay ? If not, then why does politician have to get lesser pay ?
And recession means negative growth in GDP for 2 years or more. Now it is still not clear whether will we have recession or not. There is no U turn in announcement because there is no confirmation
you are not wrong since this singapore gahmen is profit oriented.
however, i think the gahmen exists to serve the ppl, not profit from it.the question is: if LHL is patriotic, will he not serve singapore for s$750k/annum or will be botch for better money elsewhere. can he find another dozen or so like him, country b4 self? i think it is possible.
we have gone to this discussion b4, so i think we are beating a dead horse on this issue.
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Originally posted by stupidissmart:
If u compare between politicians, u may be right. If u compare between CEOs, then they r not taking ridiculous pay. It is just a mindset issue now. Does politician deserves to take a pay cut and a complete loss of privacy to join politics ? Do u think CEO should get lesser pay ? If not, then why does politician have to get lesser pay ?
And recession means negative growth in GDP for 2 years or more. Now it is still not clear whether will we have recession or not. There is no U turn in announcement because there is no confirmation
I guess alot of MInisters from the DEVELOPED countries with their intrusive news media should DEMAND more pay then? Since their privacy was intruded more. In that case, other developed countries should pay their Ministers the pay of the top 5% of CEOs.
I agree totally, tomorrow we draft a letter to the US, Swiss, Japan, Sweden, etc to tell them of their ridiculous Ministerial pay.So now it's recession???
You sure about it or are you going to change your mind another month down the road and blame it on the fluctuations of the economy?
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Originally posted by redDUST:
you are not wrong since this singapore gahmen is profit oriented.
however, i think the gahmen exists to serve the ppl, not profit from it.the question is: if LHL is patriotic, will he not serve singapore for s$750k/annum or will be botch for better money elsewhere. can he find another dozen or so like him, country b4 self? i think it is possible.
we have gone to this discussion b4, so i think we are beating a dead horse on this issue.
I think none (or few) of the Ministers who lost their Ministerial post has ever gotten a job in the PRIVATE sector that pays that as much (excluding positions in Temasek, GICs and GLCs).Correct me???
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Originally posted by maurizio13:
CEOs????
100% correct!!!
Yah! They are like CEOs, exploiting the population for money and more money so that they can get more pay.
Not godlike characters, but DEMAND god like pay when compared to other DEVELOPED countries???
God or no god, they are definitely not ethical politicians.
Pay and Pay is worst now compared to before. People are just money making tools to them. As long as it meets to self their purpose, anything is possible.
It is too late that they are telling the people to get ready for the slowdown. Retrenchment already took place some months back.
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you are not wrong since this singapore gahmen is profit oriented.
however, i think the gahmen exists to serve the ppl, not profit from it.the question is: if LHL is patriotic, will he not serve singapore for s$750k/annum or will be botch for better money elsewhere. can he find another dozen or so like him, country b4 self? i think it is possible.
there r really people who wanna serves the country by just patriotism but then again
Aren't we restricting the number of people who can come into office ? The point is we need people of calibre. And people of calibre may require a high pay to work. It is like why people r wooing people with high calibre to be CEO. Furthermore, u r talking only about the pool of Singapore born local people. We do not have a high population compared with other countries to select the people from
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Originally posted by maurizio13:
I think the P4P leaders should look for another fortune teller, apparently the current fortune teller's prediction is not very accurate, in a span of about a month, the predictions can vary from good growth to recession.
No worry, there is rumour that LKY removed the former National Library and Van Cleef Aquarium so that (fengshui) the dragon will not be blocked to flow. So may be they will remove another building to better the fortune of Singapore. Ha ha ha. -
Originally posted by stupidissmart:
there r really people who wanna serves the country by just patriotism but then again
Aren't we restricting the number of people who can come into office ? The point is we need people of calibre. And people of calibre may require a high pay to work. It is like why people r wooing people with high calibre to be CEO. Furthermore, u r talking only about the pool of Singapore born local people. We do not have a high population compared with other countries to select the people from
are singaporean instilled the right value from the onset of servitude? no, here, money talks and walks. this sums up the modus operandi in singapore. almost everything we do revolves around S-11.
the pool of singaporean is not the issue here.
what is the criteria for leading a nation then? i wld argue we need more software, such as soul, intelligence, grit and passion more than hardware like paper qualifications, etc. the latter, there are dime a dozen. the former, harder to find.
no point forcing a guy to pick up arms to defend singapore if his heart in not there in the first place.
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Originally posted by stupidissmart:
there r really people who wanna serves the country by just patriotism but then again
Aren't we restricting the number of people who can come into office ? The point is we need people of calibre. And people of calibre may require a high pay to work. It is like why people r wooing people with high calibre to be CEO. Furthermore, u r talking only about the pool of Singapore born local people. We do not have a high population compared with other countries to select the people from
Yes these CEOs are brilliant in controlling inflation, taxing through GST (poor folks who don't have to pay income tax in the past now pay GST), protecting the jobs of Singaporeans, helping the poor and homeless on the streets.
LKY once said there are no poor people in Singapore, I wonder if he meant the Singaporeans he knew.
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Originally posted by redDUST:
are singaporean instilled the right value from the onset of servitude? no, here, money talks and walks. this sums up the modus operandi in singapore. almost everything we do revolves around S-11.
the pool of singaporean is not the issue here.
what is the criteria for leading a nation then? i wld argue we need more software, such as soul, intelligence, grit and passion more than hardware like paper qualifications, etc. the latter, there are dime a dozen. the former, harder to find.
no point forcing a guy to pick up arms to defend singapore if his heart in not there in the first place.
Singapore is like a big money faced PM leading the smaller money faced.
Money talks, no money no talk.
This is the kind of idea our great leaders instil in our young.
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are singaporean instilled the right value from the onset of servitude? no, here, money talks and walks. this sums up the modus operandi in singapore. almost everything we do revolves around S-11.
Yes tat is right. Meritocracy and the only real thing we want from gov is also money. The whole thing we r arguing about is also... money.
the pool of singaporean is not the issue here.
why not ? The population is singapore is indeed small and the number of people tat we can choose is already limited compared with other countries
what is the criteria for leading a nation then? i wld argue we need more software, such as soul, intelligence, grit and passion more than hardware like paper qualifications, etc. the latter, there are dime a dozen. the former, harder to find.
no point forcing a guy to pick up arms to defend singapore if his heart in not there in the first place.
If u ask me, the real criteria is simply... making good judgement in the end.
And regardless of wat u say, most soldiers in the world r soldiers because of the money.
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Originally posted by stupidissmart:
And regardless of wat u say, most soldiers in the world r soldiers because of the money.
Yes. Agree.The South Vietnamese Army (Vietnam War) and the People's Liberation Army (Civil War with GuoMingTang) fought because of money not because of love for their country.