Recession looms for Singapore : economists
-
RECESSION looms for Singapore : Economists
SINGAPORE, Oct 8, 2008 (AFP) - Singapore appears headed for its first recession since 2002 as the city-state suffers from a US economy wilting under its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, economists say.
Southeast Asia's wealthiest economy in terms of GDP per capita is heavily dependent on trade, which makes it sensitive to hiccups in developed economies, particularly key export markets the US and Europe.
The crisis that began last year in the US subprime, or higher-risk, mortgage sector is now infecting European shores, and Singapore may very likely find itself in an extended downturn, economists said.
They expect this Friday's release of preliminary economic data for the third quarter to confirm Singapore is in a technical recession, generally defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contractions in economic output.
"We are pencilling in the worst for Singapore.... We might see two straight years of (economic) contractions (from 2009 to 2010)," said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK Research.
While the last technical recession came six years ago, the most recent full-scale recession was in 2001 when the economy contracted 2.4 percent during the year.
After years of growth, signs of a slowdown emerged with recent disappointing trade data and contractions in the important manufacturing sector, which includes the country's export-dependent electronic and pharmaceutical industries.
In August, key non-oil domestic exports fell for the fourth straight month, with electronic shipments continuing a decline begun in February 2007, and manufacturing dropped by 12.2 percent.
The August fall in output followed a 21.5 percent decline the previous month.
In the second quarter to June, Singapore's economy contracted 6.0 percent on an annualised, quarter-on-quarter basis and the negative trend likely extended into the third quarter, said economists.
"Things are bad globally," said Kit Wei Zheng, Citigroup's vice president for regional economics and market analysis.
"There are a lot of downside risks and in such a scenario, one cannot hope for a quick recovery," he said in Singapore.
Kit is optimistically forecasting a fourth-quarter recovery, with full-year growth at 2.8 percent.
Song said his revised 2009 forecast would likely be for negative growth.
He said that given the rarity of the global crisis, "the numbers we may be looking at may be once in a century for Singapore."
According to economists' calculations, more than two-thirds of the country's economy, valued at 243.17 billion Singapore dollars in 2007 (166.46 billion US), is driven by external demand.
The island nation has no significant domestic economic drivers to lean on because its market of almost five million is simply too small, said economists.
"If the world is in a recession, there is little that we can boost," said Song. "Our plan B is really to try to make the local population bigger."
Economists from Credit Suisse also see Singapore's economy slowing further next year.
"Signs that growth will be lower in 2009 than in 2008 are everywhere... lower job and income growth, falling asset prices, and flat to negative export growth," they said in a report.
"By sector, the global financial turmoil could hit financial services growth hard, exports are likely to drag down manufacturing, and the biomedical sector is expected to remain under pressure from competition from generic drugs."
In early August Singapore's government cut its forecast for economic growth this year to between four and five percent.
But Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned this week that the country could be stuck in an economic downturn that may last "several quarters" as the global crisis evolves.
"It is now an economic crisis," he was quoted as saying Monday in The Straits Times.
"So globally the economy is slowing down. This is a fact that we cannot escape."
It seems that MM LKY must have got his sights skewed in making a 10-Year positive outlook for Singapore, when events are still whirling uncertainly around Singapore even before his daringly speculative statements on 12 July 2008.
Now, what will this Better than World-Class Singapore Government intend to do to pull Singaporeans out of this morass, after allowing the increase in GST to 7 per cent on 1 July 2007 - before Singaporeans even got ourselves fully out of the 2002 recession; and continuing with public transport fares increased by 0.1%, pump prices increased by 15%, and utilities costs to 21% - when our wage increases are kept to single digit.
The Singapore Cabinet Ministers have claimed themselves to be the best talent that Singapore can produce, and deserving the wages that are even higher than the Presidents and Prime Ministers of Super Powers - and yet they are hapless to steer clear from all the negative external events that can affect Singapore.
Our Cabinet Ministers have habitually claimed that world events that negatively affect Singapore are beyond their control; but will unabashedly make self-congratulatory claims when the Singapore economy recovers due to the same external factors - AND when these external factors are largely influenced from positive actions taken by Presidents and Prime Ministers who acted with wages that are one-third paid to the Singapore Ministers.
Towards the end of 2007, researches have already shown the relentless rise in the Cost of Living - based on a Year-on-Year comparison to 2006.
Further researches in February 2008, had similarly shown the Cost of Living conitnuing to rise, and by the end of the Q2 in 2008, the Consumer Price Index had risen a whopping 7.5 per cent.
Amazingly, the August 2008 Consumer Price Index declined to make any Year-on-Year comparison similar to the 2007 report.
Despite these unfavorable situation, this Government had the gall to allow increases to our Transport Fares by 0.1% on 1 October 2008, Electricity charges has been allowed to be increased by 21% on 1 October 2008, and fixed phone lines will also see increases by January 2009 for each call made.
‘Relentless rising Cost of Living in Singapore - 2007’
‘Overview - The Singapore Economy Second Quarter 2008’
‘Dept of Statistics : Consumer Price Index – August 2008’
-
Singapore growth prospect great: Lee Kuan Yew
Saturday, 12 July 2008
Channel NewsAsia - Saturday, July 12
SINGAPORE: The coming decade could be the most promising for Singapore, says Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew. But to achieve progress, Singapore must have a top—class government.
Mr Lee shared his views about Singapore’s growth and challenges during a dialogue session hosted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Economics Society of Singapore (ESS) on Friday.
Barring any serious global recession, Mr Lee said Singapore could achieve growth of up to 7 or 8 per cent over the next 10 years.
The optimism sprang from the evolving economic landscape as Singapore adjusts itself to stay competitive. However, in order to make progress, Singapore must have a first—class government.
Mr Lee said the current team will last for two terms, within which they will have to seek and groom talent with energy and integrity.
He said: "The system is there, but the system cannot run with inadequate, mediocre men; you need top men, able men to choose able people to join you, to make sure that at every level you have the most able, the most meritocratic (people) in charge.
"So what is it (that) we are trying to do for the opposition? We are not trying to block them, we are trying to force them to collect a group of MPs or candidates that will equal us in integrity and competence, so that when the time comes, if we fail, they have a team that is equal to us, who can take over."
On whether liberal democracy is needed to bring about economic success, Mr Lee said different people seek different solutions to problems. What Singapore is doing is to create a system which will have the strongest team in place to lead.
Minister Mentor Lee said: "We are not stupid people, they give us all these advice... International Bar Association, human rights, whatever it is. Who are they, what are they? Have you run a country? Have you ever done a community and created jobs for them, gave them a life? We have, and we know what it requires."
One requirement is to continue to attract foreign talent, integrate them and build up Singapore’s labour force.
On the whole, Mr Lee said Singapore has not done too badly. But he said he would always be worried about Singapore’s long—term future, because there is little room for mistakes, given Singapore’s population and resources.
The dialogue was held with over 800 guests at the 7th MAS—ESS Essay Competition Awards presentation ceremony. They included economists, industry players from the financial sector and government officials.
The competition focused on growing income disparities in Singapore, and 146 entries were received, which was more than double last year’s submissions.
Organisers said this reflects growing interest among students to analyse and debate socio—economic issues. — CNA/ir
-
-
I think Recession is a Blessing in Disguise.
When FTs come and compete with locals, smart alex's on TV says its good as it means you can work harder to prove yourselves can compete with competition coming from anywhere in the world at lower salary. TV shows say more rich living here is good. More events for the rich is good as it spurrs you to work up the ladder to be like them.
no one owes rich people a living. If they screw up investing, they must use this valuable experience as a golden opportunity for them to prove they can rise from the ashes.
I hope they do not jump when the stock market plunge. life is precious. they should focus on earning back their lost millions or hundreds of millions. On a brighter side, they can experience the plight of the poor. feel what it is like to be a poor.
they should thank their lucky stars to be given this rare golden diamond opportunity to prove themselves all over again. Rising from the ashes is 100 times tougher. enjoy.
-
Originally posted by likedatosocan:
I think Recession is a Blessing in Disguise.
When FTs come and compete with locals, smart alex's on TV says its good as it means you can work harder to prove yourselves can compete with competition coming from anywhere in the world at lower salary. TV shows say more rich living here is good. More events for the rich is good as it spurrs you to work up the ladder to be like them.
no one owes rich people a living. If they screw up investing, they must use this valuable experience as a golden opportunity for them to prove they can rise from the ashes.
I hope they do not jump when the stock market plunge. life is precious. they should focus on earning back their lost millions or hundreds of millions. On a brighter side, they can experience the plight of the poor. feel what it is like to be a poor.
they should thank their lucky stars to be given this rare golden diamond opportunity to prove themselves all over again. Rising from the ashes is 100 times tougher. enjoy.
...not all the rich people are stupid, only those that bought into the propaganda and did not prepare for this financial meltdown.... but good post, hehehe...
-
Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
...not all the rich people are stupid, only those that bought into the propaganda and did not prepare for this financial meltdown.... but good post, hehehe...
Agree.So, the evil rich who lost their wealth should be thankful for blessing in disguise.
only those who have been evil knows they are evil.
-
The island nation has no significant domestic economic drivers to lean on because its market of almost five million is simply too small, said economists.
"If the world is in a recession, there is little that we can boost," said Song. "Our plan B is really to try to make the local population bigger."
What sort of fucking logic is that?
Bigger population can solve recession?
This type of fucking logic, our neighours like Indonesia, Philippines all very wealthly already lah.
Five million too small, than 6 million, 7 million, very fucking big?
Standard of propaganda also getting poorer and poorer in the States Times.
making a fucking fool of themselves.
-
Bigger population means more crimes, but that is just me.
-
"If the world is in a recession, there is little that we can boost," said Song. "Our plan B is really to try to make the local population bigger."said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK Research.
is it the best GK economist can come up with? no wonder the world financial system is in a crisis.
even japan with population of over 100million cannot help its economy from slipping into recession. and he think singapore population growth to 10million?
will it help? plain dumb!
-
small small island want to increase population?
Someone up there reading this post, wake the fuck up lah.
Stop dreaming already lah.
And get better propagandists to sell your fucking propaganda.
-
sigh the more i think, the more worried i am.
-
sigh the more i think, the more worried i am.
Don't think.
-
-
recession not necessary bad...ppty will be cheaper..currently a rm HDB falt easily > $300k..yet new design and build flats at mature estates though smaller are even costlier...yet the gahment continue to allow so many PRs and Foreign Talents to come in...see all our MRTs so packed and jammed even on weekdays...> prostitutes esp from PRCs to pollute SG and > study mamas to add to crime rate...SG is losing all its charm esp for local residents who can't afford to migrate
-
I hope the Finance minister confirm if Singapore is going into RECESSION or not.
I assume they know.
-
Originally posted by 787180:
recession not necessary bad…ppty will be cheaper..currently a rm HDB falt easily > $300k..yet new design and build flats at mature estates though smaller are even costlier…yet the gahment continue to allow so many PRs and Foreign Talents to come in…see all our MRTs so packed and jammed even on weekdays…> prostitutes esp from PRCs to pollute SG and > study mamas to add to crime rate…SG is losing all its charm esp for local residents who can’t afford to migrate
what is ppty?
-
Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
Gone senile or what?
“14 July 2008
Lee Kuan Yew on Friday said Singapore's economy will be fine despite the slowing global economy. Speaking at a dialogue session at an essay competition awards presentation ceremony, Lee said, ”Next five to 10 years will be the most promising years for Singapore..."
Gone senile but still putting millions in public money into own pocketI guess my teacher is right. When you're old you start talking nonsense.
-
Gone senile or what?
“14 July 2008
Lee Kuan Yew on Friday said Singapore's economy will be fine despite the slowing global economy. Speaking at a dialogue session at an essay competition awards presentation ceremony, Lee said, ”Next five to 10 years will be the most promising years for Singapore..."Oh dear, did Lee Kuan Yew forget to take his medication?
Hope that there is someone still somber in our PAP government.
Depend on Lee Kuan Yew for economic advice, all die already.
-
Originally posted by reyes:
is it the best GK economist can come up with? no wonder the world financial system is in a crisis.
even japan with population of over 100million cannot help its economy from slipping into recession. and he think singapore population growth to 10million?
will it help? plain dumb!
Hike fuller,\\
They are referring to PRC gals increasing so as to help smoother our Sg Uncles from feeling depression over the crisis, that may help to generate better mood for all. We should not underestimate the best GK economist, their words carry weights.
-
Originally posted by Poh Ah Pak:
Oh dear, did Lee Kuan Yew forget to take his medication?
Hope that there is someone still somber in our PAP government.
Depend on Lee Kuan Yew for economic advice, all die already.
He took the medicine, yes he did, but unfortunately, he took the wrong medication, he took my Uncle Andrew one. -
Originally posted by likedatosocan:
I hope the Finance minister confirm if Singapore is going into RECESSION or not.
I assume they know.
If you are farked you are farked, don't need to confirm.
-
Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
click to link:
“Jul 7, 2008... the Today newspaper, which quoted veteran banker and UOB Chairman Wee Cho Yaw as saying the current financial crisis is the worst he has encountered and warned of further writeoffs globally.”
“02 May 2008
Slowdown could stretch to 2009; Singaporeans should be prepared, says PM Lee”
“21 April 2008
``We could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years,'' Tony Tan, deputy chairman of GIC, as the company is known, said in a speech to more than 500 employees in Singapore today.”
Gone senile or what?
“14 July 2008
Lee Kuan Yew on Friday said Singapore's economy will be fine despite the slowing global economy. Speaking at a dialogue session at an essay competition awards presentation ceremony, Lee said, ”Next five to 10 years will be the most promising years for Singapore..."
Gone senile but still putting millions in public money into own pocket
Aiya, Uncle, LEE KUAN YEW is different from others you know, if he said Singapore's economy got problem, tomorrow u will see all peoples line up at Banks to withdraw all their money, that will create a chaotic scene. In Fact, we should thanks him for helping to calm down the situation. So please lah, take your calming medicine and stop adding salt and pepper in the current situation, u know singaporeans very kiasee one ok -
Damn, recession means less jobs available.
But population will keep increasing.
So how?
-
Originally posted by charlize:
Damn, recession means less jobs available.
But population will keep increasing.
So how?
how?
... become an asslicking assdog or assbitch or asspuppy... (learn how to do that from some in this forum) hahaha ...
-
Originally posted by charlize:
Damn, recession means less jobs available.
But population will keep increasing.
So how?
How? Enrol in IMH lah. Now promotion till end of the year.
“Jul 7, 2008... the Today newspaper, which quoted veteran banker and UOB Chairman Wee Cho Yaw as saying the current financial crisis is the worst he has encountered and warned of further writeoffs globally.”
“02 May 2008
Slowdown could stretch to 2009; Singaporeans should be prepared, says PM Lee”
“21 April 2008
``We could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years,'' Tony Tan, deputy chairman of GIC, as the company is known, said in a speech to more than 500 employees in Singapore today.”
Gone senile or what?
“14 July 2008
Lee Kuan Yew on Friday said Singapore's economy will be fine despite the slowing global economy. Speaking at a dialogue session at an essay competition awards presentation ceremony, Lee said, ”Next five to 10 years will be the most promising years for Singapore..."
Gone senile but still putting millions in public money into own pocket