Recession looms for Singapore : economists
-
o well
is the fear factor that will make the market
more worse
no more spending means no more demand also
then thats the end
Full stop!
-
Originally posted by Atobe:
Great observation.
Singapore lack the critical mass for economies of scale - even for the sake of security, where there is lack of depth in defense towards any aggression and require us to dictate an alternative defense posture.
This weakness in size had LKY worked feverishly to create an opportunity to be independent from Colonial Rule, as the British were willing to give independence to the Federation of Malaya, and keeping Singapore as a Jewel that is too precious to be given up.
It was LKY's idea in creating Malaysia consisting the Federal States of Malaya, merged with the British Colonies of Sarawak, Sabah and Singapore - so as to secure Singapore's independence without upsetting the sensitve racial numbers that exist in the Federal States.
All this scheming was done to achieve LKY's ambitious plans for an independent Singapore with the pooling of manpower and resources in larger setting.
Unfortunately, a young LKY could not contain himself in the politics of the 1960s, and resulted in the constant friction that resulted in Singapore being kicked out of the Federation of Malaysia.
This Song fella could be given the benefit of speaking his mind on a personal basis, but perhaps done so without giving time for a wider and deeper analysis - during an on-the-spot interview.
Originally posted by Atobe:
Great observation.
Singapore lack the critical mass for economies of scale - even for the sake of security, where there is lack of depth in defense towards any aggression and require us to dictate an alternative defense posture.
This weakness in size had LKY worked feverishly to create an opportunity to be independent from Colonial Rule, as the British were willing to give independence to the Federation of Malaya, and keeping Singapore as a Jewel that is too precious to be given up.
It was LKY's idea in creating Malaysia consisting the Federal States of Malaya, merged with the British Colonies of Sarawak, Sabah and Singapore - so as to secure Singapore's independence without upsetting the sensitve racial numbers that exist in the Federal States.
All this scheming was done to achieve LKY's ambitious plans for an independent Singapore with the pooling of manpower and resources in larger setting.
Unfortunately, a young LKY could not contain himself in the politics of the 1960s, and resulted in the constant friction that resulted in Singapore being kicked out of the Federation of Malaysia.
This Song fella could be given the benefit of speaking his mind on a personal basis, but perhaps done so without giving time for a wider and deeper analysis - during an on-the-spot interview.
-
Given the GREAT Economic Performance , is it time they hike themselves after all so many hikes are going on?
What u guys think har?
-
Originally posted by likedatosocan:
Given the GREAT Economic Performance , is it time they hike themselves after all so many hikes are going on?
What u guys think har?
...hike themselves? ... not good enough, "jump themselves" better... hahaha..
-
Singapore officially in recession... more bad news coming... NTUC gen-secretary mentioned that he expect job cut and pay cut in time to come..
Singapore economy slips into recession
AFP - 34 minutes agoSINGAPORE (AFP) - - Singapore's trade-sensitive economy has declined for a second straight quarter, the government said Friday, meaning the city-state has entered a recession for the first time in six years.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Ministry of Trade and Industry also revised downwards Singapore's full-year growth forecast to around three percent, citing a slowdown in the global economy and key domestic sectors.
In a move to confront the downturn, the Monetary Authority of Singapore -- its de facto central bank -- said it was easing monetary policy for the first time in more than four years.
Singapore is Southeast Asia's wealthiest economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but is heavily dependent on trade.
This makes it sensitive to hiccups in developed economies, particularly key export markets the United States and Europe.
The ministry said the impact of the worsening US financial crisis and the deepening credit crunch had weakened US consumer sentiment, which will affect demand from Asia and the rest of the world.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, real GDP declined by 6.3 percent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, the ministry said.
While it did not describe the economy as being in recession, a technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic output.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in gross domestic product, the value of goods and services produced in the economy.
Singapore's last technical recession occurred in 2002 while the most recent full-scale recession was in 2001, when the economy contracted 2.4 percent during the year.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the ministry said Singapore's economy contracted by 0.5 percent in real terms, against 0.8 percent expansion foreseen in the Dow Jones poll.
In August the government had revised down its full-year GDP forecast to 4.0-5.0 percent but since then, external economic conditions have deteriorated more than expected and some sectors of the economy have weakened significantly because of industry-specific or domestic factors, the ministry said.
"Singapore's export-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing, will be affected," it added.
Last year the economy expanded 7.7 percent but after years of growth, signs of a slowdown emerged with recent disappointing trade data and contractions in the important manufacturing sector, which includes the export-dependent electronic and pharmaceutical industries.
In August, key non-oil domestic exports fell for the fourth straight month, with electronic shipments continuing a decline begun in February 2007, while manufacturing dropped by 12.2 percent.
The August fall in output followed a 21.5 percent decline the previous month.
The government's preliminary third-quarter GDP estimates are based largely on data from July and August, and are subject to revision.
-
Singapore labour chief says more job losses likely
SINGAPORE, Oct 9 - Singapore's labour chief said on Thursday retrenchments and wage cuts in the city-state are likely if the global downturn continues, state television reported on its website.
"At this moment, there is no sign yet of rising retrenchment," Lim Swee Say, Secretary General of the National Trades Union Congress was quoted as saying by Channel NewsAsia.
The congress is the largest labour union in Singapore.
"However, as the downturn continues, we can expect realistically that the retrenchment may pick up," said Lim, who is also a government minister.
Warning that Singaporeans' wages will also be affected, he said: "Let's accept that there's no guarantee our real wages will not go down. In fact, they are likely to go down but it does not mean the workers will be on their own."
But he said the government and labour movement will, if necessary, support "the lower-wage workers and lower income households through non-wage measures".
Singapore's government eschews welfarism, which it views as bad for work ethics, and instead provides aid for the poor through vouchers and monetary incentives for low-income workers who stay employed, in a scheme dubbed "workfare".
-
the ministers should lead by example..
pay cut for ministers...
and possibly retrenchment..
-
Originally posted by GHoST_18:
the ministers should lead by example..
pay cut for ministers...
and possibly retrenchment..
Nonsense.
They need a pay hike to bring the country out of a recession.
-
Sigh...can't be helped...I'm very annoyed to see americans doing stupid stuff, yet people from other nation can't ask them to stop doing it. However, the stupid stuff that the americans do will effect our economy badly.
Oh ya...I won't be surprise if people starts to become more radical if a depression takes place.
The last time a recession takes place, people in germany voted for Hilter. Won't be surprise if singapore did the same thing, given the PAP hating for everything they do...even if it is common knowledge that PAP nor any political party can halt the economic downturn started by the US.
-
Time to bay for blood. Ministerial salary has always been pegged to the economy's performance. Time for a pay cut.
When our economy does recover in future, it is thru no great effort of the PAP since we are so dependent on the US.
Blood!!
-
Time for a pay cut.
I think gold must fall from sky before our beloved PAP ministers will take pay cut.
-
News from reuters saying prudential is the next insurer to be badly affected by subprime... the next one after AIG... japan got a life insurer filed for chapter 11 liao..
Prudential becomes latest insurer to warn
By Juan Lagorio and Bill Rigby
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prudential Financial Inc (PRU.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is the latest major insurer to warn its quarterly profits would miss forecasts, as the shares of rivals were pummeled on concern they would need to raise capital.
The second-largest U.S. life insurer said on Thursday that third-quarter profit would be cut sharply by losses on poorly performing annuity and investment products and a charge for a legal settlement.
That followed recent profit warnings at at U.S. life and property insurer Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and MetLife Inc (MET.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the largest life insurer in the United States.
The latter sold new shares at a discount on Wednesday to bolster its capital, raising $2 billion, while Hartford earlier this week received a $2.5 billion capital injection from Allianz SE (ALVG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Europe's biggest insurer.
"Insurers made big investments in mortgage-related securities and are also big holders of stocks and bonds in financial firms that have been wiped out or badly damaged by the credit crisis, such as Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, said Alan Rambaldini, a life insurance analyst at investment research firm Morningstar.
"On top of that, bigger life insurers like Prudential get fees on the size of stock investments behind annuity products they sell to customers, which will drop sharply as the broader market plummets," he said.
'TRADING ON FEAR'
Among other life insurers, Lincoln National Corp (LNC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), fell 35 percent to $18.31, Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) lost 27 percent to $15.79 a share and Unum Group (UNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 30 percent to $14.77.
Life insurance, as measured by the sectoral S&P Life & Health Insurance index , was down 17 percent, making it the second-worst performing sector after automakers.
Even beyond life, XL Capital Inc (XL.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), a large Bermuda-based reinsurer, fell 54 percent to $4.01.
"The group (insurers) are trading on fear right now," said Bret Howlett, Standard & Poor's life insurance analyst. "A lot of investors are worried about capital positions in this unfavorable operating environment.
"People are worried about whether these companies are going to need to raise additional capital. In this environment, it's going to be difficult to raise that capital."
American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares fell 25 percent to $2.39, one day after the company said it would get more liquidity from the government.
AIG, once the world's largest insurer, got an $85 billion loan from the government three weeks ago when it was on the brink of collapse. Under the new plan, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will take up to $37.8 billion in investment-grade, fixed-income securities from AIG in exchange for cash.
"The government has effectively provided them support for $110 billion. I think they have exhausted that avenue and so I think as they move forward their options have diminished," said Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer of Fifth Third Asset Management.
UNDER PRESSURE
Citing market volatility and extraordinary events affecting financial markets, Prudential has suspended all purchases of its own stock.
It said it has liquidity to meet requirements at the parent company and at all operating subsidiaries and, unless it enters into any strategic deals, its need to access the capital markets before the end of the year would be modest.
"We are comfortable with our risk profile and believe that we are in a strong position to manage through the current environment," said Prudential Chief Executive John Strangfeld, in a statement.
Prudential did not say when it would report third-quarter earnings.
Insurers have been under pressure to keep solid capital positions to maintain their ratings after their investments lost value as financial markets sank in recent weeks.
Keeping high ratings is essential for insurers because lower ratings can mean higher costs and, in some cases, even a loss of business.
(Editing by Toni Reinhold and Andre Grenon)
________________________________________________________________________
Japanese insurer Yamato Life files for bankruptcy in Tokyo
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japanese insurer Yamato Life Insurance Co. filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors Friday, reportedly becoming the first in the industry to do so in seven years. The insurer said recent declines in the value of its securities holdings had impaired its balance sheet, with liabilities exceeding assets by 11.49 billion yen ($116.02 million), according to wire reports citing comments by a company spokesman at a press briefing Friday. Yamato had assets totaling 283.1 billion yen ($2.86 billion) and policies worth 1.075 trillion yen at the end of the fiscal year through March 2008, according to a report by the Nikkei newspaper. Yamato's bankruptcy filing ranks as the fifth-largest corporate failure in Japan this year.
-
I like to tompang this thread and digress a lil to ask
Who shall bailout the SWF?
"brace yourselves"
-
Originally posted by charlize:
Nonsense.
They need a pay hike to bring the country out of a recession.
LOL
-
Originally posted by Rock^Star:
Time to bay for blood. Ministerial salary has always been pegged to the economy's performance. Time for a pay cut.
When our economy does recover in future, it is thru no great effort of the PAP since we are so dependent on the US.
Blood!!
thats not true i found this clip search for " one nation under L** " in youtude
-
I think this recession will hit singapore hard as govt was the # 1 organization in SG to spearhead high wages to crowd out talent pool to private enterprises. Inviting expensive executives to relocate to SG
encourage high value property market. and result in distoring property market in sg. This global downturn would trigger another round of shake up by MNC to relocate to cheaper countries.
The theme of increasing population isn't new. It started back in PM Goh. This is a lazy way for govt to spur domestics demand. Perharps SG govt is thinking about it by increasing transit residents.
But i am amaze that after all these years SG govt had not comprehend how to built up domestics solution for the domestics economy. Domestics economy isn't just about having a population. It is about having Singaporean own businesses that provide local economies and perharps extend itself to the various regions. These are the key driver to keep singaporean employed when recession or MNC decided to quit SG.
-
I also think the recession in singapore this time round will be very bad, much worse than previous ones.
As it is, the only solution the people at the top can think of to help the economy grow is to import more and more people in to inflate demand for goods and services. This is how they "create" jobs. Notice a huge chunk of jobs created are in the services industry to cater to this increase in demand for goods and services.
Come recession time, you will see the drawbacks of this policy.
-
Originally posted by charlize:
Nonsense.
They need a pay hike to bring the country out of a recession.
lol i dunno why everyone can laugh. i'm feeling nervous lor.
-
Originally posted by dumbdumb!:
lol i dunno why everyone can laugh. i'm feeling nervous lor.
You should be.
An increase of x number of imported demand (workers) resulted in a booming economy for the past few years.
Now imagine the decrease in that same x number of demand ( I am assuming what the people at the top says is true, that foreign workers will bear the brunt of retrenchments during a downturn), and the impact on the economy.
Plus the fact that this is not a typical economic down cycle with the credit crisis and all.
It's a double whammy. Or maybe 3 times worse.
-
Originally posted by Rock^Star:
Time to bay for blood. Ministerial salary has always been pegged to the economy's performance. Time for a pay cut.
When our economy does recover in future, it is thru no great effort of the PAP since we are so dependent on the US.
Blood!!
What pay cut only? Since they tied it to the economic performance, positive econoimic performance, get paid (the higher the economic growth, the higher the pay); negative economic performance, they, instead of getting paid, come out money from their own pockets and return the money to the people.
"to build a democratic society. based on justice and equality ..."
If they think that is unfair, let them resign, good riddance...
-
Originally posted by charlize:
You should be.
An increase of x number of imported demand (workers) resulted in a booming economy for the past few years.
Now imagine the decrease in that same x number of demand ( I am assuming what the people at the top says is true, that foreign workers will bear the brunt of retrenchments during a downturn), and the impact on the economy.
Plus the fact that this is not a typical economic down cycle with the credit crisis and all.
It's a double whammy. Or maybe 3 times worse.
so do u think the govt will still go ahead with the workers' dorm in serangoon gardens?
-
Oh fuck !
Singapore first Asian economy in recession
SINGAPORE: Singapore has become the first Asian economy to fall into recession, analysts said yesterday, after the government revised downward its full-year growth estimate and eased monetary policy for the first time in years.
"Singapore will be the first Asia economy to fall into a technical recession," DBS Group Research said in an assessment of the data.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry lowered the city-state's full-year growth forecast to around three per cent, citing a slowdown in the global economy and key domestic sectors.
The move came as the ministry released preliminary data showing that real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 6.3 per cent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 per cent in the previous quarter, the ministry said.
While it did not describe the economy as being in recession, a technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic output.
In a move to confront the downturn, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - its de facto central bank - said it was easing monetary policy for the first time in more than four years.
Singapore is Southeast Asia's wealthiest economy in terms of GDP per capita but is heavily dependent on trade. This makes it sensitive to hiccups in developed economies, particularly key export markets the US and Europe.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP, the value of goods and services produced in the economy.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the ministry said Singapore's economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in real terms, against 0.8 per cent expansion foreseen in the Dow Jones poll.
In August the government had revised down its full-year GDP growth forecast to 4-5 per cent but since then, external economic conditions have deteriorated more than expected, the trade ministry said. - AFP -
Originally posted by charlize:
I also think the recession in singapore this time round will be very bad, much worse than previous ones.
As it is, the only solution the people at the top can think of to help the economy grow is to import more and more people in to inflate demand for goods and services. This is how they "create" jobs. Notice a huge chunk of jobs created are in the services industry to cater to this increase in demand for goods and services.
Come recession time, you will see the drawbacks of this policy.
I also feel that no one really knows how bad this recession is and will be unless there is Full Transparency of all relevant information. This is a no brainer.
The world seems to only know after-the-fact. I often see well known economists commenting after-the-fact and they really sound so bombastic. I wonder why they did not alert the world earlier and prevent the problem ? Thus, usually i see is bombastic comments after-the-fact.
But then I am just a layman, brudder, uneducated in these sort of bombastic thingies.
-
Originally posted by charlize:
Damn, recession means less jobs available.
But population will keep increasing.
So how?
was it that our beloved Lim SS advised on Front Page news of the MSM advising the people to Upgrade their Skills? I wonder why? Anyone knows? What does that mean? I thought we have already been upgrading skills for so long right?
Brace ourselves!
-
Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
...because we expected it from a really long time ago...
hmm. expected.. don't mean no worries mah. haha everyone still joking etc.. i really am worried.