Recession looms for Singapore : economists
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We are one of the first in recession becos SG grew in third world speed.
SG just grew at estimated 3 % for 2008 iso 7 % as previouly estimated.
Few % growth rate is a norm in 1 st world country.
If u dunt like the term First World,may i change to
country with GDP per capita at US$35,000 and above.
The facts is NZ alreday in technical recession at end of
2Q,while SG in recession at end of 3Q!!
NZ recession is earlier than SG!!
http://app.mti.gov.sg/default.asp?id=148&articleID=15561
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/econind/a5/data.html
Quarter....NZ....SG
4Q 07....8.0...5.4
1Q 08....6.6...7.0
2Q 08...3.3..2.3
3Q 08....NA....-0.5 advance estimates only
New Zealand was declared in technical
Compare with other 1st world
http://www.pm.gov.au/media/Release/2008/media_release_0543.cfm
ActualForecasts2006200720082009World--below 5.15.03.93.0Advanced economies--below 3.02.61.50.5United States---below 2.82.060.1Japan---below 2.42.10.70.5Euro area---below 2.82.61.30.2Major advanced economies (G7)---below 2.72.21.20.1Australia---below 2.74.22.52.2lll
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Singapore still first in asia to be in recession
Why?
Growing fast is no excuse, bad planning
Is this acceptable?
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Singapore becomes the first Asian victim of recession
AFP, SINGAPORE
Saturday, Oct 11, 2008, Page 1 Singapore has become the first Asian economy to fall into recession, analysts said yesterday, after the government revised downward its full-year growth estimate and eased monetary policy for the first time in years.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry lowered the city-state’s full-year growth forecast to around 3 percent, citing a slowdown in the global economy and key domestic sectors.
The move came as the ministry released preliminary data showing that real GDP declined by 6.3 percent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, the ministry said.
While it did not describe the economy as being in recession, a technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic output.
“Singapore will be the first Asia economy to fall into a technical recession,” DBS Group Research said in an assessment of the data.
In a move to confront the downturn, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) — its de facto central bank — said it was easing monetary policy for the first time in more than four years.
“The Singapore economy has weakened over the course of 2008, alongside an escalation in the turmoil in financial markets and a more severe deceleration in global economic activity,” MAS said.
These developments meant new uncertainties for the Singapore economy, while slower Asian growth would restrain activity in a range of service industries such as transportation and tourism, it said.
“The risks to external demand conditions continue to be on the downside and a more severe global downturn cannot be discounted,” the bank said.
Singapore is Southeast Asia’s wealthiest economy in terms of GDP per capita, but is heavily dependent on trade. This makes it sensitive to hiccups in developed economies, particularly key export markets the US and Europe.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP, the value of goods and services produced in the economy.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the ministry said Singapore’s economy contracted by 0.5 percent in real terms, against the 0.8 percent expansion foreseen in the Dow Jones poll. -
How lionnoisy?
the media says that we are the first in asia to be recession leh, the articles out there go read
dun say we anyhow anti sg
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even forbes agrees,
Sg FIRST to be in recession!
Singapore in recession
Friday, 10 October 2008
Koh Gui Qing, Reuters
Singapore eased monetary policy on Friday for the first time since 2003 after the Southeast Asian economy sunk into its first recession in six years and as the meltdown in financial markets threatened to further hit growth.
Singapore's export-dependent economy shrank an annualised and seasonally adjusted 6.3 percent in the July-September quarter, advance government estimates showed, compared to the 1.1 percent growth forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.
Singapore last slid into a recession -- usually defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contractions -- in 2002.
The government also revised down its 2008 growth forecast to around 3 percent on Friday from an earlier estimate of 4 to 5 percent.
Economists said the looser monetary policy will cushion the headwinds Singapore's economy faces from the worsening crisis, but the economy could be stuck in recession in the fourth quarter, and in the first half of next year.
"Looking at how fast construction is slowing, given services is slowing, and the fact that the global economy is going in a downwards spiral, it is quite likely Q4 will remain in negative territory," said Selena Ling, head of treasury research at OCBC. "Quite possibly, first half of next year will remain in recession," she said.
Singapore's central bank sets policy by managing the Singapore dollar in a secret trade-weighted band against a basket of currencies, instead of setting interest rates.
A looser policy will allow the currency to rise at a slower pace, and the currency should trade at the lower-end of the band as growth slackens, analysts said.
"Against the backdrop of a weakening external economic environment and continuing stresses in global financial markets, the growth of the Singapore economy is expected to remain below potential in the period ahead," the central bank said on Friday.
"MAS is therefore shifting its policy stance to a zero percent appreciation of the S$NEER policy band," it said in its twice-yearly policy review statement.
The Singapore dollar rose to 1.4724 per U.S. dollar after the central bank's announcement compared to 1.4780 before as traders adjusted positions after the widely anticipated policy easing. It soon pared gains.
Singapore is the first Asian country to fall into a recession since the crisis started. Japan is teetering on one, and New Zealand slid into a recession in the second quarter for the first time in more than a decade.
The unfolding global financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, has prompted central banks across the world from the United States to China to loosen policy to avoid a global recession.
Singapore is the first country in Asia to report quarterly gross domestic output data for the third quarter, and its heavy dependence on trade makes the $165-billion economy a good gauge of the impact of the crisis on the rest of Asia. Singapore, like most other Asian countries, depends on the world -- especially the United States and Europe -- to buy its exports and keep its economy growing.
But the worsening crisis has dented global demand for Asian exports. Singapore's non-oil domestic exports, worth about 70 percent of the economy last year, fell on an annual basis in June, July and August. -
Real Economic Growth
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/charts/econ.html
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/economy/ess/essa11.pdf
http://www.pm.gov.au/media/Release/2008/media_release_0543.cfm
GDP growth rate
year----SG...Major advanced .......G7.....Euro area
.....................economics
2004---13.7
2005---8.1
2006---8.8..............3.0...........2.7.........2.8
2007--12.1.............2.6..........2.2........2.6
2008---est 3
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so ,u can see SG grew at a crazy rate in 1 st world standard.
Now slowed down to few % is normal for 1 st world country!!
i am not interested for forecast.
mmm
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Ok ok.Even we are 1 st in Asia in recession.So what?
ask the medias which country with GDP US$49,900 in 2007
(see cia.gov)
per capita and government with NET DEBT FREE
could achieve this growth rate?
Dunt tell me US and UK so and so.
just US carry national debt 10 trillion or 74% of GDP.
Australia-----no eye see lah.....
Repulic of Singapore GDP growth rate
2004---13.7
2005---8.1
2006---8.8..
2007--12.1..
2008---est 3
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so ,u can see SG grew at a crazy rate in 1 st world standard.
Now slowed down to few % is normal for 1 st world country!!
i am not interested for forecast.
mmm
your optimism was definitely not share by many economist and your much admire LKY, LHS and tharma.
recession is already start to bite into high tier and middle high tier property prices.reduction in spending in adverisement as shown by SPH. this show all business are basically pessimistic about the general economy.
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i dun see why singapore will not be badly hit by this global credit crisis.. singapore is an export economy mainly to US, UK, Japan as well as China. If you look deeper into the export figures, US and UK take up easily 40% of the goods exported from sg.
Now these countries not longer demand so many imports and protectism will set in to protect their own local industries and employment.. sg will definitely be hit hard... Majority of the workforce in the manufacturing sectors will be lay-off as orders falls and coys have to reduce operating cost..
ppl in the financial industry will also experience lay-off as foreign banks r trimming off excess fat to cut cost or outsource to cheaper countries like india etc...
with more citizens being laid off or fearing of being laid off.. consumer spending falls.. hence hurt the retail sectors... and the spiralling effect goes on... affecting housing, etc...
having annual gdp growth of 3% is a v optimistic estimate.. if this credit crunch continues.. 4Q08 export and gdp data will be extremely ugly and its not surprise if we see a flat or -ve gdp for 2008..
brace yourself to survive thru this recession.. if things get worsen.. i foresee a more gloomy pic ahead... drawing reference to the 1897 and 1930 great depression.. we are having the same problem brewing... and this time round more lethal as everything is leveraged.. the danger of leveraging is that once the deleveraging process kick in.. its going to be rapid and destructive cos' everything is magnified and noone can control the magnitude of such unwinding...
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Fund managers increasingly pessimistic on growth
Survey shows more managers believe global economy is in recession
LONDON - Pessimism about prospects for the global economy rose sharply in October, according to Merrill Lynch's monthly fund-manager survey.The number of managers stating that they believe the global economy is already in recession jumped to 69% in October, the survey showed, up from 44% in September.As well, a net 60% of managers believe that the global economy will weaken over the next 12 months, up from 37% in September.Corporate profits are expected to weaken over the same time frame, 74% of managers said, up from a reading of 68% a month ago. A net 87% of managers say corporate operating margins will shrink, up from 79% taking this view last month.The survey for October is one of the most pessimistic ever, in a month when fund managers lost faith in global growth, commodities, China's economy and emerging markets.Nervousness grew against a backdrop of dramatic political and financial events.In the past few weeks, governments around the world acted to shore up the financial system, while central banks instigated a coordinated interest rate cut last week.A net 59% of managers said that they believe monetary policy is still too restrictive. This compares with 29% holding this view in September.Meanwhile, 72% of managers say that short-term interest rates will be lower in 12 months time, compared with a reading of 51% a month ago.Cash positions upMarkets have been on a wild ride over the past few weeks as hope that the plans to bail out banks vied with fear over how the global economy will hold up.More managers moved into cash in October, the survey showed, with average cash balances rising to 5.3% from 4.8% a month ago.The number of managers that are overweight cash increased to 49%, from 36% in September.Still, with stock prices falling dramatically - European shares dropped 20% last week - more managers believe that share prices are undervalued.A net 43% took the stance that global equity markets are undervalued, up from 15% a month ago. The latest figure is a 10-year high."Fund managers are waiting for the triggers that will give them the confidence to buy," said Gary Baker, head of EMEA equity strategy at Merrill Lynch."What they are looking for is a loosening of monetary conditions and for third-quarter earnings to clarify where problems and opportunities lie across equity markets," he said.Over the month, mangers lifted their overweight on cash to 56%, from 40%, and raised their overweight on bonds to 17%, from 4%. They were more negative on equities, going from a 37% net underweight to a 45% net underweight.Regional detailManagers' overweight on U.S. equities fell to a net 18% in September, from a net 26% a month ago.Underweight positions on eurozone equities increased to a net 41%, from a net 36% in September, while underweight positions on Japanese equities decreased to a net 9%, from a net 23% a month ago.The outlook for corporate profits is most favorable in the U.S., a net 29% of managers believe, compared with 34% taking this view a month ago.Managers became more positive on the prospects for Japanese corporate profits, with a net 7% stating that the country has the most favorable outlook for profit growth, up from 2% a month ago.The euro zone is still the region with the least favorable outlook for corporate profits, a net 30% of managers believe. This is unchanged from last month."Europe has now assumed the U.K.'s mantel as the world's least popular destination for equity investment," said Karen Olney, lead European equities strategist at Merrill Lynch."Against this backdrop of fear over profits and recession, investors are selling expensive, highly cyclical industrials and opting instead for stable dividends and capital preservation," said Olney.A total of 172 asset allocators managing a total of $531 billion in funds participated in the survey.
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I just find it amazing that despite all the briliant planning and policies of the people at the top, Singapore is the first Asian country to fall into a technical recession.
I'm like, we pay them so much and we are first to drop?
What happened to all the trumpet blowing about our economy will be okay, things will be hard but not that bad, we will weather the storm etc?
At the rate things are going, I am just hoping that this won't turn into a full blown bloodbath in the economy.
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Actually the growth rate posted by lionnoisy, a large portion of it is inflationary growth, shifts in the LM curve of the IS-LM to the left.
The GDP growth posted by Singstat is not GDP per capita growth.
i.e. If initially you had 100 workers, you produced $100,000 GDP, therefore GDP per capita of $1,000. Then you import 200 workers, you produced $180,000 GDP, therefore a GDP per capita of $900. The GDP per Capita decrease while the GDP increased. In part some of the growth is due to shifts in the LM curve to the left, because an increased in foreigner population competing for resources like housing, this short term increase in demand caused a steep increase in the cost of housing and concomitantly other resources.
There is a difference between GDP and GDP per Capita, but of course our blind P4P follower lionnoisy knows not the difference or tries to hoodwink anybody stupid enough.
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Singapore may not totally collapse.
Rationale / suggestions:
1. If labor cost needs to trim, easy - import the replacers.
2. If need more money - hike. there are numerous items , services and goods that can still be price hiked by substantial amounts based on the observation that even a 22% electricity hike the people are so ok with it they don't even will protest (this is good). Hikes have 100% success rate guaranteed based on historical evidence.
3. If too many cars - ERP hike until the poorer cannot afford to use their cars leaving the roads to be used by the real rich.
4. People not investing in shares? Sell them the idea that there are some shares that can still be bought at a bargain. Use the public mass media.
5. Get more talents to serve the country - hike their salaries in December and jack up their bonus. Money talks.
So, what is the problem?
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Whether a country goes into recession earlier or later has no economic consequence, it's the duration of the recession that is of prime importance.
Singapore can be the last in going into a recession but if the recession last 10 years like Japan, whereas other economies lasted only 2 years, then there is significant difference.
Going to recession is not like a game of tightrope walking, where the first to fall is the loser. But of course lionnoisy an illiterate will not be able to distinguish the difference.
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Originally posted by likedatosocan:
Singapore may not totally collapse.
Rationale / suggestions:
1. If labor cost needs to trim, easy - import the replacers.
2. If need more money - hike. there are numerous items , services and goods that can still be price hiked by substantial amounts based on the observation that even a 22% electricity hike the people are so ok with it they don't even will protest (this is good). Hikes have 100% success rate guaranteed based on historical evidence.
3. If too many cars - ERP hike until the poorer cannot afford to use their cars leaving the roads to be used by the real rich.
4. People not investing in shares? Sell them the idea that there are some shares that can still be bought at a bargain. Use the public mass media.
5. Get more talents to serve the country - hike their salaries in December and jack up their bonus. Money talks.
So, what is the problem?
After reading that Singapore was the first to fall into a technical recession, do you still believe what the people at the top are telling the ordinary citizens?
Those living in the ivory towers have no clue as to the hardships borne by the common folk during the so called "boom" in the economy, let alone during a recession where things will be much much worse.
I really dread to see how the economy will hold up against the backdrop of a global slowdown.
IRs will cushion the impact of the recession?
I can almost hardly believe it now.
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The only thing to fear is fear itself - so said a depression era US president.
We are only in a tech recession, as our fundementals are still solid. Our dollars are adjustable to help both export and imports and weighted in time to bring max benefits to our state.
Yes, we will be hurt by exports, more so our fellow neighbours who will bear the brunt of lower exports being purchased by us for exports to the western world. They will have a stockpile, which means either they drop their prices or they fold up.We being only middlemen, need to get our cash together with loans and seek out the best lowest denominator in costs to ship to the western world which will still need critical household stuff such as medicines, food and daily commodities.
It isnt the end of the world.
But it will be if we ourselves stop spending and stop investing or hoarding money in biscuit tins at home. Real jobs will then be lost and savings wiped within months.The choice to fail and end this world, or at least spell the end of Singapore, is within our collective hands.
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Originally posted by xtreyier:
The only thing to fear is fear itself - so said a depression era US president.
We are only in a tech recession, as our fundementals are still solid. Our dollars are adjustable to help both export and imports and weighted in time to bring max benefits to our state.
Yes, we will be hurt by exports, more so our fellow neighbours who will bear the brunt of lower exports being purchased by us for exports to the western world. They will have a stockpile, which means either they drop their prices or they fold up.We being only middlemen, need to get our cash together with loans and seek out the best lowest denominator in costs to ship to the western world which will still need critical household stuff such as medicines, food and daily commodities.
It isnt the end of the world.
But it will be if we ourselves stop spending and stop investing or hoarding money in biscuit tins at home. Real jobs will then be lost and savings wiped within months.The choice to fail and end this world, or at least spell the end of Singapore, is within our collective hands.
It ok to re engineer singapore, i dun mind it total wipe out, remove the foreigners, readjust our position, change the govt, nurture the young ones and start all over again, it could be painful and long term adjustment, but then, nothing last forever. If Singapore is not wipe out now, sooner or later it will. -
But it will be if we ourselves stop spending and stop investing or hoarding money in biscuit tins at home. Real jobs will then be lost and savings wiped within months.
who wouldnt stop and reduce spending in poor times?
saving the economy greatly depends on fiscal policy of govt not on individual singaporeans.
unless u wana invest in my hitler investment funds.
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Originally posted by reyes:
who wouldnt stop and reduce spending in poor times?
saving the economy greatly depends on fiscal policy of govt not on individual singaporeans.
unless u wana invest in my hitler investment funds.
Ya, our Nazi funds and bonds promises good returns. My fuhrer is right, spending very much depend on the fiscal policy, eg, the current increase in electricity will force people to spend even if they want to keep. So are other progressive increment coming soon.So, invest with us, visit us at our office at the Bunker. Bomb prove.
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Originally posted by angel7030:
It ok to re engineer singapore, i dun mind it total wipe out, remove the foreigners, readjust our position, change the govt, nurture the young ones and start all over again, it could be painful and long term adjustment, but then, nothing last forever. If Singapore is not wipe out now, sooner or later it will.
I do not suscribe to the belief that we must burn everything so that from the ashes will only the phoenix arise to lead us to Nirvana.
Many thousands and even millions of precious lives will be lost.
We can ride out this recession better than our forefathers who were largely uneducated. It is time for us all to put what had been taught and experienced in life to the test of survival of our times. If we fail, we will only dishonour the sacrifice of our forefathers.
Now is the time to decide what are liabilities and and what are assets and do what we have to do. Not to skimp on spending but to spend more on our assests to grow it further.
Thousands of technological innovation that can improve our way of live and mankind are being research and developed right now, such as environmentally friendly products, hitech gadgets, energy saving or alternatives as well as medical genetic improvements products.
To keep our money in biscuit tins would be to deny them such funds for developement and stagnant our developement as a race. Such improvements are necessary and will be the engine of growth for economies once they are mass marketed. -
Originally posted by maurizio13:
Whether a country goes into recession earlier or later has no economic consequence, it's the duration of the recession that is of prime importance.
Singapore can be the last in going into a recession but if the recession last 10 years like Japan, whereas other economies lasted only 2 years, then there is significant difference.
Going to recession is not like a game of tightrope walking, where the first to fall is the loser. But of course lionnoisy an illiterate will not be able to distinguish the difference.
Only time will tell how Singapore will weather this storm.
Like I mention before, if during boom times, there is hardship among the common folk, the problems will be worse during a slowdown.
Let's keep our fingers crossed that there won't be a prolonged recession that could affect Singapore not just economically but socially.
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Originally posted by charlize:
Only time will tell how Singapore will weather this storm.
Like I mention before, if during boom times, there is hardship among the common folk, the problems will be worse during a slowdown.
Let's keep our fingers crossed that there won't be a prolonged recession that could affect Singapore not just economically but socially.
Singapore is extremely reliant on exports, it will be deeply affected by the current economic turmoil.
If LHL is not at his wits end, don't think he would have started the IR projects, mass importing cheap foreign talents to grow the GDP.
Frankly, majority of foreigners think that Singaporeans are rich because of our reserves, but the fact of the matter is, the reserves belong to the government, Singaporeans themselves have very little spending power. Government sector spending crowds out private sector spending.
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Singapore is extremely reliant on exports, it will be deeply affected by the current economic turmoil.
If LHL is not at his wits end, don't think he would have started the IR projects, mass importing cheap foreign talents to grow the GDP.
Frankly, majority of foreigners think that Singaporeans are rich because of our reserves, but the fact of the matter is, the reserves belong to the government, Singaporeans themselves have very little spending power. Government sector spending crowds out private sector spending.
i was speaking with my japanese associate just 10min. ago. he echo the same sentiment that singaporeans are rich. i exacly reply him the same way u said it. + Japanese govt are very rich too, bt neither me or you belong to that category.
heil hitler!!
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The only way Singapore is going to come out of this recession is if the global economy recovers quickly.
If the US and European economies are sputtering, I doubt even the so called twin Asian engines of India and China can do much to the other Asian economies.
That said, I am still of the view that the casinoes won't do much good if foreign tourists are not coming to spend. And if that happens, you employ so many people at the IR for what? Swat flies?
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Originally posted by charlize:
The only way Singapore is going to come out of this recession is if the global economy recovers quickly.
If the US and European economies are sputtering, I doubt even the so called twin Asian engines of India and China can do much to the other Asian economies.
That said, I am still of the view that the casinoes won't do much good if foreign tourists are not coming to spend. And if that happens, you employ so many people at the IR for what? Swat flies?
in order to find a solution, the ministers will give themselves a big pay rise...
