How long will this Crisis last
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There are some optimists who say we may see a recovery at the Q4 this year (best case scenario that means we have not seen the worst yet ) and there are some like expert pessimist saying this is just the beginning of the beginning and not even the end of the beginning of this MegaTsunami , more negative news and events are waiting to unfold over this year, STI may dip below 1000 pts this year (good chance I think)
I personal take is that of the middle ground, I believe the economy will recover sometime Q2 or Q3 of next year , once STI really approach 1000 points. we are near the end . Hopefully I still have my job by then.
And my deep seated hope that the optimist will be proven right this time
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Crisis??? what crisis, u got no foods to eat for a week ar?? no place to live for 3 months ar?? no transport to take ar?? no bath for one month ar?? no computer and handphones for a year ar?? no water to drink ar???no electricity for years ar?? no handsome hunks and beautiful girls to see ar??? no medical helps for years ar?? no cloth to wear for years ar???
Please lah, be happy with what u have, there is no crisis, you make your own crisis. You still got money to invest here and there, there are peoples still waiting for a bowl of rice on the street.
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How to have crisis during golden period?
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1000 points?
mai siao lar
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Crisis? What crisis?
The effect has yet to be felt by many. Most are right now hoarding their money and not spending, not that there is NO money. Those that continue to do so will only see their savings wipe out in a matter of time, as companies close down, meaning competition roll over and die, leaving the stronger companies around to cut throat.
Singapore's unemployment rate is till below 10%, which means there are still more than 90% whom are employed and have money to spend, that is, if they do not hoard up money instead. But as they hoard up money, companies will have to close and the unemployment rate will climb.
The world had reacted quickly in October and threw an obsene amount of money to shore up over leverage banks. Now that the banks are cash rich, they hoard up money and are very very stringent with lending, if they lend at all.
They are hoarding up money, and letting companies die. Continue along this line, when existing companies default more and new companies are not given loans to expand, people will draw out their savings and banks, like any other commercial entity will die too.
The only bright ray of hope is the money govts will spend on the people instead. China had reacted fast and started on infrastructure projects worth billions and will keep many china citizens employed.
US had approved spending, but the money has yet to go into the hands of consumers. Once that happens, it is trillions of dollars, and would certainly drip our way.
Singapore, as usual, cautious to the point of kiasu, has yet to do anything concrete about actual spending, prefer to wait until legislated. To their credit, they did offer up thousands of govt jobs that will keep unemployment low, so long as those employed DONT HOARD MONEY!
So when will the crisis be over? Depending on how long actual World govt spending on citizens and infrastructure will come. Eu is a basket case right now, cant even get their act together to decide on anything.
Planet Earth's fundamentals are still fine. Plenty of resources to tap and food to be grown and harvested. People still have needs and must spend eventually to satisfy those needs.
As for Singapore, the 90% employed will keep the domestic economy humming, as long as they DONT HOARD MONEY! For those who are retrenched, govt jobs await. For those in foreign companies, majority are awaiting their govt's spending and easing of credit by their banks. If that doesnt come fast enough, they will close down.
The stock market is now normal, with its regular ups and downs. It is afterall just another gambling centre, more high class and called 'investments'. All kinds of people play the stock market, some go for long, some go for short. Unlike black october when it was a total disaster of panic scrambling out of the market at all costs.
In summary, there WILL BE NO CRISIS if Singaporeans spend normally. I aint kidding. Our external trade is currently being diversified to other nations instead of depending heavily on uS. It may not be much, but it is still revenue for social spending and jobs.
PS: For those who worry about running up huge deficiets, rest assured, Planet Earth's resources combined with scientific technology advances will reap back those money spent. Better cheaper and more productive use of land and mining, fertilisation, etc, etc. The world's economy is after all - resource based.
The only worry is that we may discover how to live forever. But that would probably come with technological advances on how to tap the vast universe with its abundant planets' resources. But first, we need to evolve as a species and not as individual barbarians.
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Originally posted by xtreyier:
But first, we need to evolve as a species and not as individual barbarians.
Yes sir.
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if what dr doom predicts correctly, this crisis will last for 5 years.
recovery in 2012.
i am not that optimistic. singapore is so dependent on foreign country , not a single country is spare, can we be spare then?
obama say worse is yet to come, Dr doom predicts recession will last 5 years, Jim rogers say bailout will cause more trouble for US in years to come.
the amount of money, china, USA , UK is printing could wreak havoc to great inflationary pressure once this crisis start to subside. resulting in another form of crisis.
like what angel say lor, if u got rice to eat, gals to look, liang teh to drink, HDB to stay, dont be so sad lor. Gaza has nothing to eat.
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Originally posted by reyes:
if what dr doom predicts correctly, this crisis will last for 5 years.
recovery in 2012.
i am not that optimistic. singapore is so dependent on foreign country , not a single country is spare, can we be spare then?
obama say worse is yet to come, Dr doom predicts recession will last 5 years, Jim rogers say bailout will cause more trouble for US in years to come.
the amount of money, china, USA , UK is printing could wreak havoc to great inflationary pressure once this crisis start to subside. resulting in another form of crisis.
like what angel say lor, if u got rice to eat, gals to look, liang teh to drink, HDB to stay, dont be so sad lor. Gaza has nothing to eat.
does it mean LHL may need to postpone stepping down? ...since everything must be `sui sui' whenever these chaps call it a day.
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there is something seriously wrong about "don't hoard money"
we are supposed to accelerate consumption?
there's something seriously wrong about that philosophy coz it brought the world to this sorry state now..
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the economy still needs money to circulate in order to substain ....
Its normal for company to hold money, much like a cities being seige .. You surrender if you have no food or water to substain your troops.. The company must hold money in order to be able to substain against the lack of sales or opportunities and still pay people to go out to look for sales and opportunities.
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The ones hardest hit now are probably those companies that thought they could keep expanding in the booming economy and make enough just to pay off the interest.
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The ones hardest hit now are probably those companies that thought they could keep expanding in the booming economy and make enough just to pay off the interest.
very true! that why companies with high ratio of short term maturity debt are dangerious on the brink of bankrupcy. many company are caught by this financial tsunami by surprise.
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does it mean LHL may need to postpone stepping down? ...since everything must be `sui sui' whenever these chaps call it a day.
nobody know when LHL step down, next election he will still be around la, if by then economy not recovery, prepare for depression liao lor!
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Originally posted by reyes:
very true! that why companies with high ratio of short term maturity debt are dangerious on the brink of bankrupcy. many company are caught by this financial tsunami by surprise.
So essentially Alan Greenspan was correct, the market would regulate itself. However, it would only do so after the threshold point has been crossed not before.
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angel is right...
it's never worth it to fret about money, never ever.
Even the dumb economists cant decide amongst themselves whether the crisis wil last long. Let them do their stupid job..
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Originally posted by reyes:
Gaza has nothing to eat.
......... does Hitler agree with you?
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There is a crisis because you were told there is a crisis, therefore it will be over when someone tells you it is over.
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money is the root of all evil, including this financial tsunami
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The general sentiment is after CNY , and once Obama excitement died down, we will see more retrenchment , pay cuts , drastic measure taken by coy to save cost.
Cash hoarding are quite real, I have many friend who already set aside large sum of $$ to purchase their investment property having make a pile during the boom time. have a friend already liquidated all his stock including property hoarded almost a millions dollar , waiting for the right opportunity moment to strike ...Once STI dive to near 1000, DBS probably only worth $3 then , but we know we have reach the turning point of recession, so I am looking forward to that. It just a matter of when , just hope it wont be long
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Originally posted by seancannot:
There are some optimists who say we may see a recovery at the Q4 this year (best case scenario that means we have not seen the worst yet ) and there are some like expert pessimist saying this is just the beginning of the beginning and not even the end of the beginning of this MegaTsunami , more negative news and events are waiting to unfold over this year, STI may dip below 1000 pts this year (good chance I think)
I personal take is that of the middle ground, I believe the economy will recover sometime Q2 or Q3 of next year , once STI really approach 1000 points. we are near the end . Hopefully I still have my job by then.
And my deep seated hope that the optimist will be proven right this time
The FS lee hsien loong said that it is going to be on for many many quarters.
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Originally posted by seancannot:
The general sentiment is after CNY , and once Obama excitement died down, we will see more retrenchment , pay cuts , drastic measure taken by coy to save cost.
Cash hoarding are quite real, I have many friend who already set aside large sum of $$ to purchase their investment property having make a pile during the boom time. have a friend already liquidated all his stock including property hoarded almost a millions dollar , waiting for the right opportunity moment to strike ...Once STI dive to near 1000, DBS probably only worth $3 then , but we know we have reach the turning point of recession, so I am looking forward to that. It just a matter of when , just hope it wont be long
Poor chap, ok, you go ahead and keep on looking, in meantime, me just relax by the pool with my Singapore sling with pine juice.
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Originally posted by Fantagf:
The FS lee hsien loong said that it is going to be on for many many quarters.
how can u take a person words that u hate so much??? -
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Originally posted by reyes:
nobody know when LHL step down, next election he will still be around la, if by then economy not recovery, prepare for depression liao lor!
HeLL My Fuhrer!!!,As yr newly appointed economist, i suggest that we should not dwell on the current poor economy, instead, we should relax and think wisely on how to make the best out of these poor economy. For every downturn, it create new millionaires/billionaires when the upturn come around. As my Guru Alan Greenhorn said, "instead of preparing for depression, prepare to take opportunity, the economy at times, need re -enginnering inorder to recover"
There my advise is think of what to do best now, maybe we can open a casket company, cos many will look for suicide during depression, and our old age population sure need casket one, yet it is a business that few venture, what say you, my Fuhrer??
Col Angel
SS Waffen
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Originally posted by angel7030:
how can u take a person words that u hate so much???
U don't know what is being objective?