Costs ,benefits and risks of late evacuation
My impression of oz plan is stay to the last minutes.
Take Healsvellie yesterday warning as example.
DSE just warned residents in
''Dowd Road, Romeo Road, Anderson Road, Gibbs Road, Juliet Avenue and Donald Street in Healesville''
Fire updates - further information about significant fires
DSE did not warn residents in the same town which is within few km !!
So,if the above locations are attacked by fires,how about the other locations
in the same town?Some survivours said the fires came like a train!!
Costs
Lifes.
Benefits
May be it can save the house by staying late.
Risks
Hurt and deaths.
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Costs,risks and benefits to the authority if impose mandatory evacuations
Currently,it is up to residensts to decide when to leave .
Mandatory evacuations mean the authority order residents to leave the house
if the threats is very high.
Costs
Financially-----cater for foods and loadgings
Politically-----people make noise and lose votes
Legally----Authority may be sued if house burst down after mandatory evacuated.
Benefits
save lifes.
2.Catch 22 situation.
People seldom thank you decisions of politicians.
In this case,people will blame if they are mandatory evacuated and the
house has not been affected.People also blame if their house burnt down.
Their reasons would''If i stay benind,i can save my house.''
People just blame if somethings happen.
So,the benefits are too remote.
Risks
Tied up to costs listed above.Losing votes---the most important factor!!
Conclusions of the authority
Mandatory evacuation is not a good option---for the authority!!
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what a good gavaman or authority shall do?
Let the residents to decide?
Gavaman take the resposibility to order evacuation if the risks too high?
u tell me lah?
This prove oz gavaman dunt ask residents to leave even they have time--
These are the first
Urgent Threat Messages i come across today!!
QQQQ--Core Advice
Urgent Threat Message The Murrindindi Yea fire 12.30 pm 10/02/2009
Urgent Threat Message The communities of Acheron, Connellys Creek, Crystal Creek, Scrubby Creek, Native Dog Creek and Molesworth
Urgent Threat Message Yea - Murrindindi fire 12.50 pm 10/02/2009
Urgent Threat Message. The communities of Rubicon, Thornton- Taggerty Road, Bulls Lane, and in Cathedral Lane to the east of Little River
Urgent Threat Message- Yea/Murrindindi Fire near Glenburn 12.00pm 10/02/2009
Urgent Threat Message for communities of Kalatha Creek Road and east of Two Hills Road
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So,if the Mother Nature do not show her mercy,all the residents in the above
townships will get into big troubles!
Is it prudent to allow residents stay in the affected areas.
u can see below even a down graded warning area will also facing
conditions change unexpectedly without a warning.
So how can u expect the people,among them old folks or children,
to brace for bush fires face to face?
This is just like asking residents dunt leave their units in building
when building catch fires!!
will u do this?
Downgrade
Message - Urgent Threat to Alert for the Maroondah Yarra (Formerly
known as the Toolangi and Healesville/Yarra Glen/Chum Creek Fires)
10/02/2009
''People in the area need to remain alert as there may not be a warning should conditions change unexpectedly. Continue to listen to ABC or local radio for updates on this fire.''
This is a example that fires runs very fast---700 meter in 3 mins .
LUKE VAN DEN BERK | We decided to stay in the house. Within three minutes the flames were 30 to 40 metres high.
mother nature or self inflicted, i heard some OZies burning other Ozies houses too. Me thot Ozies are gracious folks, damn they are burning themselves...typical prisoners decendants
There are humans are being affected badly by the fires
and all this stupid lion can do is to post more anti-oz stuff and walls of text
Totally no morals and empathy at all, totally mercenary.
An epic failure of Singapore's system.
this lion never stop making noise, don't know what can shut his mouth
is it fair and prudent to ask people taking risks fighting with
bush fires bare hands and face to face?read the story from this reporter.
On the front page of The Australian yesterday,Gary Hughes described his frantic struggle to save his family as the bushfire rapidly advanced on his home.
Great!ADF starts working!!
RAAF 'spy' plane in survivor search
Army engineers are racing against time to complete 100 km of firebreaks around threatened towns of Yea and Broadford.
By
late last night, army teams operating a fleet of heavy and medium
bulldozers rushed in from Puckapunyal had carved 10km of fire breaks
around the two towns, a defence spokeswoman confirmed this morning.
Elements
of the 450-strong defence Joint Task Force have been deployed into nine
high-risk areas bringing a measure of relief for hard-pressed fire
crews and other emergency workers many of whom have been battling fires
for more than a week.
Four search teams made up of 160 defence
reservists have joined other emergency workers in a grim search for
bodies in rough terrain around Traralgon, St Andrews, Flowerdale and
Yarra Glen.
“Soldiers are well-briefed and equipped to conduct this type of activity,” said the spokeswoman.
In addition to plant operators, army chainsaw teams are now helping reopen roads closed by fallen trees and other debris.
Four armoured personnel carriers are accompanying the engineering teams.
Operating
as mobile communications centres, they offer good protection against
smoke and heat and can be used to smash through obstacles in the event
of an emergency rescue.EOQ
Originally posted by lionnoisy:is it fair and prudent to ask people taking risks fighting with
bush fires bare hands and face to face?read the story from this reporter.
On the front page of The Australian yesterday,Gary Hughes described his frantic struggle to save his family as the bushfire rapidly advanced on his home.
You are still being an ass. Don't you have any empathy? You are a total disgrace to Singaporeans. I really hope you are not one.
Even autistic kids have more empathy than you do.
Originally posted by angel7030:mother nature or self inflicted, i heard some OZies burning other Ozies houses too. Me thot Ozies are gracious folks, damn they are burning themselves...xxxxx--deleted
wat is your proof?
Originally posted by eagle:There are humans are being affected badly by the fires
and all this stupid lion can do is to post more anti-oz stuff and walls of text
Totally no morals and empathy at all, totally mercenary.
An epic failure of Singapore's system.
which are anti--oz?show us.
wall test--better than none lah...
Originally posted by lionnoisy:which are anti--oz?show us.
wall test--better than none lah...
Do they want more townships to be burnt down to ash before
doing anythings or do they wait Melbourne under threat then
asking ADF in Afghan come back to help ?
Dunt dunt believe drive by shooting is a way of life in Oz
They dunt believe abt 40 ATM blown up in oz.and oz police is offering
I don't need to further explain or find more.
And simply by posting all these things to tell people to get away, you have minimal faith in Oz to solve this. And just look at your own English, you are the ultimate failure of Singapore's education system.
oz ADF was talking to Rudd on the night of 8 Feb
''defence I’ve just talked about and I’ve had embedded as of last night the Army representative Colonel Greet and Brigadier Arnold from 4th Brigade here in Melbourne, fully embedded into the operations here in the recovery effort.
Practical things like satellite imagery of the affected areas to make sure we can do before and after shots of where we still need to get to, and that’s of course impeded sometimes by weather and cloud cover.''EOQ
said oz need to increase Boardband penetration rates.
currently,only 52% households in oz get boardband.
''As of June 30 2008 the total Broadband connections were at 4.3 million (52% of all households), an increase of 22% on last years total.''
18/12/2008 Australian Broadband connections soar to 4.3 million : ABS
Internet: 'Crisis increases need for NBN'
ref singapore boardband penetration rate
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/ssn/archive/ssnmar2007.pdf
resident Boardband subscribers---193 to 100 residents
( abt 3.4 million citizens and 450,000 PR are considered as residents.
so the boardband subscribers would be 3,440,000 x 1.93=6.6 million??
totat population abt 4.7 million,ie ratio is 1.4 per population??)
]
-
-
broadband
lionnoisy go dong dong chiang to earn extra cash
one of the reasons of high death tolls--
people locked out from the area and they could not return to help their family--
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2008/s2487148.htm
2.some in Healsville choose to leave and not want to take risks!!
will u stay in a building which catchs fire?
i know they stay in rural area n may have to leave pets and animals behind.
this is a tough decision to make.

This is a transcript from The World Today. The program is broadcast around Australia at 12:10pm on ABC Local Radio.
You can also listen to the story in REAL AUDIO and WINDOWS MEDIA and MP3 formats.

http://www.smh.com.au/
oz ADF in actions----great
Mark Dodd FAMILIES driven from their homes by the bushfires were sheltering last night in tent cities as troops joined the emergency response.
this local newspaper can provide very gd and timely coverage
http://lilydale-yarra-valley-leader.whereilive.com.au/news/list/category/emergency-services/
09 Feb 09 @
FIRST-REPORTS of the fire devastation in Toolangi are emerging tonight, as the small community continues to be threatened by fire.''
Toolangi is abt 25 km from the NE fringe of melbourne.

some hamlets are just so unlucky to be hit twice!!
But at leas they have the wisdoms not to fight on and quit.
sometime,u just cant fight with Mother Nature!!
Keeping yourself and ALL loved one alive is No.1 priority!!
Mrs Moon said while they sprinklers on the roof and around their property, and had worked to clear the land, by 3pm today, the group decided it was time to leave.
``As I saw it, there were seven of us, and it was not worth risking the seven of us to save the house,’’ she said.
Mr Moon said a number of neighbours were not aware of the threat Monday’s blaze posed until the fire was almost on them.
``There’s a family down the street that didn’t even know the fire was there until it was right behind them,’’ Mr Moon said.
After leaving property, they congregated in Toolangi at an already burnt out paddock area with up to 40 other cars.
``The police and CFA were fantastic, they kept on coming back to keep and eye on us, they kept keeping us informed about what was happening,’’ Mrs Moon said.
At about 7pm this evening conditions eased enough for the group to form part of a police escorted convoy and flee along the Melba Highway.
how far is Melbourne from the fires?

''Bushfire aerial images of devastation, Melbourne CBD in background. Photo: Andrew Batsch''
http://lilydale-yarra-valley-leader.whereilive.com.au/photos/gallery/aerial-views-of-fire-aftermath-at-kinglake-dixons-creek-and-yarra-glen/
Full coverageAerial views of fire aftermath at Kinglake, Dixons Creek… more
''Healesville, about 50 kilometres (31 miles) northeast of Melbourne, was the latest community threatened by one of the 24 fires still burning.
Victoria's Country Fire Authority warned the town was in danger from "heavy ember attack," a phenomenon that survivors who have faced it liken to a fiery hailstorm of burning embers.
Further east in Gippsland, firefighters were trying to control a massive blaze stretching more than 100 kilometres.
We've got about 135 kilometres (84 miles) of fire line and only a small proportion of that, about 12 kilometres, has been contained," Country Fire Authority incident controller Stephen Walls told reporters.''
Australian firefighters battle 'inland tsunami'
AFP - 5�时�
Healesville,
about 50 kilometres (31 miles) northeast of Melbourne, was the latest
community threatened by one of the 24 fires still burning.
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The fires are not over yet.....
''The death toll from the bushfires jumped to 181 on Tuesday evening, with 30 fatalities confirmed in Strathewen; a staggering 15 per cent of the town's 200-strong population.''
Towns in Victoria remain on alert for bushfires as winds pick up
The Australian - 41分钟�
Meanwhile in Healesville, sheer luck and strong winds blew away bushfires from the town. The town was expected to be hit early on Tuesday and had been .
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25036544-601,00.html