Trouble-shooting the SG Inc: What would you do?

• Pharoah

  30 Aug 03, 23:08

  We all know that there is a big storm going on out there.
  
  Specifically to the regulars in here :
  
  What would you do, assuming you have the full authority and command over resources on hand, to change or improve on the operation fundamentals of the economy for now and the future?
  
  Will you introduce change from internal elements? Or will you influence upon the external factors?
  
  
• Viper52

  1 Sep 03, 01:47

  Originally posted by Pharoah:

  We all know that there is a big storm going on out there.
  
  Specifically to the regulars in here :
  
  What would you do, assuming you have the full authority and command over resources on hand, to change or improve on the operation fundamentals of the economy for now and the future?
  
  Will you introduce change from internal elements? Or will you influence upon the external factors?
  
  

  Good question. I don't even the regulars who are better economists than me can answer that. Why? You'll have to ask the PAP gahment why. With their policy of keeping all kinds of data "secret" (although one does wonder whats so secret about employment statistics) it'll be hard for anyone out of "the loop" (as the recent NTU economists/MoM+Ng Eng Hen spat over employment data showed) to get a full picture of what the PAP is doing right or wrong.
  
  Its this lack of transparency, and by dint accountability, in the running of Singapore that makes me worry most about Singapore's future.
  
• Atobe

  1 Sep 03, 03:51

  
  Firstly, sack the Pharoah and all in his cabinet, who are over paid and only know how to blame the world events for all our woes, and then have the audacity to ask what we should be doing when all the trouble-shooting did not give any accurate picture.
  
  Secondly, get the Auditor-General and Accountant-General to swear loyalty and allegiance to Singapore and the Singapore Citizens - (and not to the Government who pay their salary) - this is to get them to perform conscienciously to get the true accounting of the assets and reserve of Singapore Inc.
  
  Thirdly, listen to the second and third level management of every ministry, and get them to give their impressions as to what is wrong with their ministry, and listen to their honest solutions.
  
  Fourthly, get the banks to ease up on the loans collection, rate of interest charged, and to be more flexible in granting loans to new start-up businesses; with the Singapore Treasury underwriting the Venture Capital to fledging Singapore new businesses - (so far it is all talk from the present Government, with frustrations from the SME and new start up continuing).
  
  Fifthly, the Police Force and the entire Security Apparatus will have to be reviewed - with a view towards more liberal and less paranoid attitude towards Public Assembly.
  
  Sixthly, the Justice Department will have to be revamped, with the help of independent outside legal expertise.
  
  Seventh, the Education System will have to be revamped, with the early streaming of children during Primary Three to be abolished, and assessment to be made after Secondary ONE.
  
  Free education until Secondary School, and a more relax environment for Political Conciousness to be developed during High School and University.
  
  Eighth, Social and Cultural - a more liberal approach to allow for creativity in social and cultural inter-actions.
  
  At least ONE Percent of annual surplus will be set aside for the benefit of the under-privilege and the aged.
  
  Ninth, Tax on Income, Vehicles, and Domestic Consumption to be reviewed, with the objective of lowering the amount attributed to direct and indirect means.
  
  Lower tax is possible with lesser Government interference in the life of all Singaporeans.
  
  Tenth, without the Ruling Party in power, perhaps the positive findings of the Remaking of Singapore Committee can be fully reviewed and implemented - (instead of the empty lip service given by the Government to the objective of the Committee)
  
  These are by no means comprehensive, but should form the basis of some discussion.
  
  
• nismoS132

  1 Sep 03, 18:57

  free public transport.
  
  so not every tom dick and harry will buy a car.
• [ Neo ]

  1 Sep 03, 22:08

  Originally posted by Atobe:

  Firstly, sack the Pharoah and all in his cabinet, who are over paid and only know how to blame the world events for all our woes, and then have the audacity to ask what we should be doing when all the trouble-shooting did not give any accurate picture.
  
  Secondly, get the Auditor-General and Accountant-General to swear loyalty and allegiance to Singapore and the Singapore Citizens - (and not to the Government who pay their salary) - this is to get them to perform conscienciously to get the true accounting of the assets and reserve of Singapore Inc.
  
  Thirdly, listen to the second and third level management of every ministry, and get them to give their impressions as to what is wrong with their ministry, and listen to their honest solutions.
  
  Fourthly, get the banks to ease up on the loans collection, rate of interest charged, and to be more flexible in granting loans to new start-up businesses; with the Singapore Treasury underwriting the Venture Capital to fledging Singapore new businesses - (so far it is all talk from the present Government, with frustrations from the SME and new start up continuing).
  
  Fifthly, the Police Force and the entire Security Apparatus will have to be reviewed - with a view towards more liberal and less paranoid attitude towards Public Assembly.
  
  Sixthly, the Justice Department will have to be revamped, with the help of independent outside legal expertise.
  
  Seventh, the Education System will have to be revamped, with the early streaming of children during Primary Three to be abolished, and assessment to be made after Secondary ONE.
  
  Free education until Secondary School, and a more relax environment for Political Conciousness to be developed during High School and University.
  
  Eighth, Social and Cultural - a more liberal approach to allow for creativity in social and cultural inter-actions.
  
  At least ONE Percent of annual surplus will be set aside for the benefit of the under-privilege and the aged.
  
  Ninth, Tax on Income, Vehicles, and Domestic Consumption to be reviewed, with the objective of lowering the amount attributed to direct and indirect means.
  
  Lower tax is possible with lesser Government interference in the life of all Singaporeans.
  
  Tenth, without the Ruling Party in power, perhaps the positive findings of the Remaking of Singapore Committee can be fully reviewed and implemented - (instead of the empty lip service given by the Government to the objective of the Committee)
  
  These are by no means comprehensive, but should form the basis of some discussion.
  
  

  No kidding about it, I am FULLY BEHIND Atobe on these few points. But the 1% percentage allocation will still be too low a margin.
  
  But I would still prefer to have a medical social security system that will FULLY subsidize on the basic cost for those in the lower income base cluster.
  
  Either that or at least have some basic insurance net for these lesser previllage groups as seen from the contribution status in their CPF accounts.
• [ Neo ]

  4 Sep 03, 13:55

  My troubleshooting will differ from that of Atobe.
  
  The cause of the current economic gloom plight, though hampered upon to some certain extend by some stubbornness to adjust and change along with the forces in the external competitive environment, is nevertheless still largely laid upon us by uncontrollable global economic variables.
  
  As a country that is actively engaged in international trade, with focus being set around major export markets strategically identified such as America, Europe and more recently, the SE Asia region, it is inevitable that the heavy reliance by the country on itÂ’s 1970s economic success formula will evenly run out of steam and into a gradual hard patch.
  
  Though affected by a complex chain that first started in 1997 as sparked off by the Asian Financial Crisis, Singapore has since gone thru it subsequent share of technical recession, internal security threats from fanatical extremists, the looming setback by foreign investments suspension as resultant from the uncertainty and volatility of the global crude oil supply function in wake of the Iraq War.
  
  And while the SARS factor had also more or less dampened upon the domestic economic setting, the spun off adversity effects on the actual economy had actually been overplayed.
  
  True, there were business that had been badly affected during that specific period of time. However, the scope of such were more or less being confined more towards smaller scaled retail or F&B setting.
  
  The only real industry with a genuine claim to complain was the Tourism industry, but then again, by the weightage of its minority contribution stake in the Singapore GDP, the calculated damage were certainly well within a containable range.
  
• [ Neo ]

  4 Sep 03, 13:56

  The truth however, is that the old and successful economic paradigm that has been responsible for the rapid progress and development of the 60s to 80s frame is definitely being overridden. And it is also eventual that the Singapore economy will begin to fail and falter, as with the economic life-cycle of other similar developed markets. This process was merely being hasten up by the above mentioned events.
  
  Unlike the frame from the1960s to the 1980s, the former economy strategy of injecting extensive capital intensive activities is now fast being copied and rendered irrelevant.
  
  Aspired by the sight and smell of the Singapore success, the regional third world economies are currently pursuing a common economic strategy which is typically expected of from developing countries, and that is to first revolutionalized upon their internal core activities from post agricultural and into a heavy base of light and medium-heavy industries.
  
  With the electronics and general manufacturing industries falling under such classifications and aided further by the ever-existing demand for their low production cost products, it had been clear to the Singapore Government that the reliance on these pillars would have to be eventually shifted upon a higher curve, and into more complex and intensive-coordination required fields.
  
  As researched and revealed upon by the Kruskal-Wallis Test which was conducted to find out on what were the primary determinants that had attracted Japanese MNCs to invest in Singapore over the other available SE Asia countries in the region, it was concluded that the main attractiveness that had been offered by Singapore, laid within the rigid but transparent structure of the island country.
  
  And unlike the common expectation that Japanese investments had flown in here mainly as a result of attractive Policy variables such as tax holidays or relaxed profit repatriation regulation, it was actually the Non-Policy variables that had played a greater role as the right bait.
  
  As identified within the Kruskal-Wallis study, the Non-Policy Variables included factors such as :
  
  1. Political & Economic stability
  2. Country knowledge
  3. Local market size
  4. Establishment of export base
  5. Raw material availability
  6. Import / tariff / barriers
  7. Free trade zones
  8. Labor cost
  9. Tax deductions / incentives
  10. Location / presence of Competitors
  11. Local content exemption
  12. Governmental subsidiaries / state incentives, protection etc.
  
  While the factors highlight in blue represents favorable conditions that Singapore is able to offer, many of the former strengths are also fast being eroded by the rapid improvement and evolution by our surrounding competing foreign economic systems.
  
  On political stability, things in SE Asia are now different from what it had been twenty years ago.
  
  Vietnam is now well recovered from its former internal political in-fighting. Although sporadic handful of resistance still exist against its PM, the governmental structure is now more or less stable, though not entirely transparent.
  
  Thailand has seen its military influences within the government, as well as the former propaganda fear of the country being suddenly seized over and turned into a military controlled state by the army as popularly fantasized upon back in the 1980s, significantly reduced.
  
  And in the Philippines, the impeachment of Estrada and the subsequent rise of Arroyo into power has also been symbolic in its conveyance of the message that the country is sick of its former corruption flamboyant running, and that the civilians there want true accountability and honesty from its government from now on.
  
  Within the economic frame, the former Asia Four Dragons are also fast losing their shine from the inescapable theory of diminishing growth and returns. And by contrast, having been vigorously slapped right in their kisser by Soros during his currency hedging game back in 1997, the issue of financial loopholes that were in existence and unmonitored within SE Asia markets were diligently revisited and repaired.
  
  While it cannot be said that true transparency and accountability over both the flow or management of funds truly exist, it cannot be denied that there are now, more whistle blowing systems in vigilance guarding.
  
  National fiscal policies, both successful and unsuccessful, had been amended following the post 1997-98 era in a bid to redirect lost investments back into the respective SE Asia countries, as evident from the Malaysian pegging of the Ringgit to the USD, and the unsuccessful attempt by the IMF to implement upon Indonesia, itÂ’s economic restructuring package.
  
  The depreciation of the Thai Baht in irony, has even turned the country more competitive in the post Asia Financial Crisis years, as evident from the flock of even local F&B investments into the country as lured by the low cost of investment startup required.
  
  And coming into the issue of state protection or incentives, we have seen the Malaysian Government granting a monopoly to its domestic carmaker, and India giving a certain soft drink giant, the monopoly over the entire countryÂ’s market. These allures, are certainly not realities that you will find offered to a foreign investment company that is coming to invest here.
  
  In reviewing upon all of the subsequent change that has taken placed so much around us, Singapore must note of all these shifting variables as well as itÂ’s own position along the life-cycle map of economic growth from the old Manufacturing Based Paradigm, and eventually realize to discover on its over-looked weakness.
  
  
• [ Neo ]

  4 Sep 03, 14:15

  Perhaps it had been the irony that because the Singapore economy had been so snuggly cushion by its shock-absorbing mechanisms in place in 1997, that the people had only suffered from minor small wounds while its immediate neighbors suddenly found themselves landing into the ICU.
  
  The brutal battering woke our neighbours up from their previous daydreams. But while they raced to fix on the holes, the bulk of the Singapore populations in that time, had still been largely unaware it was truly the post 97 recover period, that had posed as the real danger to the competitiveness of the country.
  
  With former competitive advantages rapidly lost to closely replicated paradigms found across most SE Asia markets today, the Government then made its next step, and that is to reconstruct upon a new paradigm that will be driven primarily by a powerful Knowledge-economy.
  
  The publicized aim to have the new ingredient, R&D, to play a significant in our GDP into the future from now, will not come fully until at least after the next 15 years as such a cultural is slowly being developed, lessons learnt and a new cornerstone fleet of specially bio-science trained workforce is truly ready to march forth.
  
  Within this interim frame, revamps must be made from whatever is available, and which is why in accordance with the suitability of the highly structured, legalized and transparent Singapore infrastructure, the Financial Services sector must be thoroughly developed for the unleashing of its current untapped potential.
  
  And in addition, the other area of potential development that should be immediately recognized and activated, is to gather together, an elite fleet of adaptive and competent Asian intermediate market experts together.
  
  For firms in previously identified target markets of investment-rich location such as Japan and the US, the existing FTA should be adopted and managed effectively by Singapore to function not solely as a red carpet to welcome their entrant into small domestic market to take away businesses from the local firms, but rather, to pull in or to bulldoze a road thru the current rough path.
  
  Think of the FDI as a big strong African buffalo and the smaller local businesses as birds. Where the buffalo goes, ticks will follow, and the birds will feed on these.
  
• [ Neo ]

  4 Sep 03, 14:17

  Revisiting back to PharoahÂ’s question on what I will do if I hold the khan, here is my reply.
  
  In order to jump the economy onto the next new curve for the Knowledge-Driven Paradigm, the current strength of stability must be maintained on primarily the Non-Policies Variables, while Policy Variables should undergo considerable revamp to adjust for a better fit to attract FDIs for new core areas of development.
  
  In particular for the Financial Sector where the industry is characterised by the rapid mobility of international funds facing fairly little restraint to both enter and exit the country, the careful strategizing of Policy Variables will be of immerse importance to the key of supporting upon the Non-Policy Variables to subsequently increase on the degree of attractiveness for foreign capital to flow in.
  
  In term of tactical level implementation, the first implementation will be a new order that the SGX and all commercial banks that has been granted a full banking license in Singapore, to be open and functioning for 24 hours. The purpose is to draw even more funds into Singapore.
  
  With the Singapore financial hub and its system now also running during the local night frame, the move will serve to make convenience to an even greater pool of would-be investors be them fund managers or individual penny-stock investors, to effectively keep tab on their investments progress, without the hassle and need to stay awake until the wee hours of morning when our stock and currency market is open during the Singapore daytime.
  
  Effectively creating upon new jobs almost immediately, the radical change also serve as a full-fledge challenge to Hong Kong as an alternate consideration for the inflow of foreign monies.
  
  With the financial sector up running in 24 hours capacity, the next step will be to fully and effectively utilized upon the fleet of middle level management/executives that are familiar with the on-field operations of businesses in SE Asia economies.
  
  Secondly, bringing back the FTA into picture, the SME Association and the various Chambers of Commerce will be granted funds to back the establishment of a new breed of even more aggressive and ferocious commercial agency firms to launch economic ‘invasions’ into the regional economies.
  
  Functioning as the interactive front for their respective clienteles, these new breed of business agents must not only know their respective trade, but also serve the function of effective expertise solutions provider to bypass and resolve on all major operational obstacles that may be present in a certain theatre of operation.
  
  The logic is very simple.
  
  Like hyenas whom are no fight against the lions, the hyenas (local intermediaries agents with expertise knowledge on SE economies) must learn to efficiently salvage on whatever bits (commission/representative based arrangement) that they can lay their fangs onto.
  
  Businesses will be encourage to operate in synchronize timing as with the daylight hours of major cites in the Western Side of the globe. And as an incentive to promote on such a change in normal working hours trend, all utilities bill will be charged at a discounted rate for business registered factories or offices that will be operational during the night.
  
  Thirdly to render support on the new scavengers modus of operation, both the IE Singapore as well as practical think-tank groups will be subsequently formed and be set engaged into the active task of economic intelligence processing and to facilitate upon more mobility of financial resources deployment.
  
  In addition, the focus on the legislative sector will also be reviewed to promote and encourage upon more private practices aiming to go into areas of international legislative issues, to effectively tap on the unjuiced potential from the existing vacuum of such services in the other less developed countries.
  
  Fourth, the propaganda war can of course, can never be neglected. The Channel News Asia, will receive funding for its programs to be further expanded into even more countries.
  
  And the propaganda to promote Singapore as the most suitable site for FDIs to come into the Asia region will not rest even after all the Arab children know who Sim Wong Hoo and Olivia Lum are.
  
  Last but not least, all businesses and companies employing a total of over 50 staff or more, will receive an symbolic employment grant for their retaining of older employees aged over 40s.
  
  And that will be what I will introduce, assuming that I truly hold the khan around this joint, of course.
  
• Pharoah

  5 Sep 03, 23:49

  Neo, from the content of your suggestion, do I take it that you are saying Singapore should just take a run away approach just because there is the emergence of some small fry regional competitors?
  
  If that is the case then I think you have been looking at the issue from too myopic a scale.
  
  From your own quote, you specifically mentioned that it had been the so-called manufacturing paradigm thing that had made the Singapore economy into what it is today. And now you are suggesting that we step on the brake and turn around jut because a few foreign registered cars have now crossed into our lane?
  
  Instead of defending our current strength, are you saying that we should just stand by and do nothing while the challengers pick us off bit by bit?
  
  The reliance that you have placed in your description of a service dominated economy looks like a nightmare to me.
  
  If the emphasis was really turned solely to rely on the service industries alone, then you are merely duplicating into the footsteps of hong kong and cornering yourself into yet another hole.
  
  The hong kong economy is very close to your concept of an ‘improved’ picture of the economy. But if this is really true, then we will only be heading on into yet another prolonged session of unemployment.
  
  Back dating a few years back, the hong kong economy ran into trouble specifically because it had relied too much on services. The proportion of manufacturing contribution to their economy was so pathetic that when foreign investment ceased to enter the country, everybody was knocked off their feet instantly.
  
  Is that your definition of improvement?
  
  
• [ Neo ]

  6 Sep 03, 13:57

  Reread my post Pharorah. I have never advocated for an economy that is dependent entirely on mere service sectors alone. And neither did I say that that we should simply stand aside and do nothing to retain the current manufacturing investments in here.
  
  Do not simply add in your own version of interpretation. That is willful misquoting.
  
  While I acknowledge that the structural unemployment in Hong Kong is caused by steep decline in the demand for Hong Kong financial services, I do not see that as a main reason on why Singapore should not go ahead with its plans for the country to be developed into a global financial centre.
  
  But you seemed to have strong opinions on this topic that you have started. Why dun you share your own version of contribution with us first?