Is Ah Bian Playing With Fire?

• octega

  24 May 04, 19:49

  From the Yahoo webby:-
  China turned the screw on Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, warning he was walking a "dangerous road" and again threatening to "completely annihilate" any moves towards Taiwan independence.
  
  "Chen Shui-bian is on the road to independence. This is a very dangerous road," Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Zhang Mingqing said at a briefing Monday.
  
  "If he doesn't choose to rein in his horses then our only choice is to pay whatever price is necessary to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity ...
  
  "There will be no peace for Taiwan independence and there will be no stability for splittists."
  
  Zhang's comments were the first from his office on Chen's May 20 speech beginning his second four-year term last week.
  
  However, they were largely based on a May 17 statement by the cabinet-level Taiwan Affairs Office which reaffirmed the mainland's hardline stance toward Taiwan independence.
  
  "There is no fundamental change in our position on Taiwan..., Chen Shui-bian must accept the 'one China principle'," Zhang said.
  
  "Like it says in the (May 17) statement, we will completely annihilate the plot for Taiwan independence."
  
  During his largely conciliatory inauguration speech, Chen refused to rule out eventual reunification with China and renewed a pledge made in 2000 not to seek independence or a referendum on independence within the coming years.
  
  Beijing has largely ignored the comments and instead threatened military force unless Chen accepts the mainland's terms for reunification.
  
  On Monday, China warned it would "smash" any Taiwan military aircraft that crossed over into mainland airspace, the pro-Beijing Hong Kong daily Wen Wei Po said, in a further sign of rising tensions.
  
  If war breaks out over Taiwan ahead of the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, it would be Chen's fault for refusing to accept the 'one China principle', Zhang said.
  
  "Some people are asking will the Olympic Games be influenced, I think that if Chen Shui-bian wants to challenge the entire world then as the (May 17) statement said we will pay any price to safeguard national sovereignty.
  
  "Chen Shui-bian has shown no sincerity or goodwill toward developing cross-straits relations."
  
  Beijing is further considering a Taiwan Reunification Law aimed at outlawing Taiwan independence moves and protecting state sovereignty, he said.
  
  China may also examine how the profits of Taiwan businesses on the mainland are spent.
  
  "To push for greater economic and trade relations has all along been our policy... and this (Chen's re-election) will not influence in any way Taiwan investment, but what I want to make clear is that we do not welcome money made on the mainland being used to support Taiwan independence," Zhang warned.
  
  Since the end of civil war in 1949, Beijing has considered Taiwan a renegade province awaiting reunification, forcefully if necessary.
  
  Zhang also slammed US high-tech military sales to Taiwan as a violation of a 1982 Sino-US joint communique in which Washington pledged to reduce the amount of weapons sold to the island.
  
  "US arms sales to Taiwan seriously violate the 1982 Sino-US joint communique," Zhang said.
  
  "We have made solemn representations many times and said that this is very wrong. Now, looking forward, whether or not this results in confrontation across the straits is up to which road Chen Shui-bian takes."
  
  I really dunno what Ah Bian wants, if china really goes to war due to Ah Bian, both sides wins nothing, drags the whole region into uncertainty.
• LazerLordz

  25 May 04, 00:35

  Why is it I always hear of people or nations bowing to China and her "status quo" ? Is Taiwan undeserving of the chance for self-determination?War is just of one the results that may occur if Chen decides to declare independance.Call me silly if you want, but I feel we should be proud to defend Taiwan's right to independance.If China cannot take it, they better do some growing up before trying to be a mature country in the international arena.Taiwan certainly doesn't owe China anything.It survived quite well by itself.I will support independance for Taiwan.China can very well dream on.
• proudsingaporean

  27 May 04, 23:34

  Sometimes I feel that since Taiwan and China are already so separated that they might as well really become independent of each other. They've evolved to be different countries, each with its own culture and nationality. Why can't China be more tolerant and gracious and grant Taiwan independence?
  
  It's like a marriage on the verge of divorce; it would do both sides more good to let go than to preserve this tense relationship.
• drawer

  28 May 04, 00:22

  China practise communism,Taiwan practise democracy,no point forcing each other to summit to the other beliefs.And besides,communism have fallen from one nation to another,who is on the right track,time will tell.
• Blueray

  29 May 04, 23:46

  Taiwan cannot afford to declare independant i.e. changes its name to Republic of Taiwan. A huge part of Taiwan's revenues come from the mainland market. Let's say if Taiwan formally declares independence, even if China does not invade it by force, by imposing economic sanctions on Taiwan, their economy will be doomed. If China chooses to use force, I am afraid to say that the economy of asia will suffer terribly since many asian countries including South Korea and Japan are so dependant on China for economic growth. It's a nightmare scenario.
• Blueray

  29 May 04, 23:56

  [quote]
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Originally posted by drawer:
  
  China practise communism,Taiwan practise democracy,no point forcing each other to summit to the other beliefs.And besides,communism have fallen from one nation to another,who is on the right track,time will tell.
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  
  In reality, communism is already dead in China. It is more like a capitalist socialism state than anything else. I have lived in China for a few years, trust me there is more personal freedom in China than in Singapore.
• Stevenson101

  30 May 04, 09:18

  But Ah Bian is not helping the stituation by constantly trying to play both sides. He's being more of a politician than a leader.
  
  Of course it's easy to say you support their independence here, your country is not being targeted by thousands of missiles and artillery guns. If a war breaks out, Taiwan WILL be crushed there are no doubts about that, the Americans do not have the stomach to soak up the casulties fighting China.
  
  It's not about your opinion being silly but you're not the one there when the missiles start landing.
  
  I'm sure there is a political way out of the whole thing, China want Taiwan back as a way to secure its eastern borders and as a matter of dignity and national pride. I'm sure the government of China is not keen on ruining its reputation and economy it has painfully built up over it.
  
  What's not helping however are the Taiwanese politicians trying to score political points by taunting China. Even Li Teng Hui commented that China didn't had the guts to attack Taiwan to a news conference.
  
  

  there is more personal freedom in China than in Singapore.

  I'm not sure how accurate this comment would be, but by mixing with some China friends it was my impression that they cared more about their country and more knowledgeable about what is going on in the world. What made a greater impression on me however is that not only do they know what is going on they can go on quite long about their opinions regarding it.
  
  That however, is not an impression i get from my fellow Singaporeans especially the younger generation. Even in this forum , it seems to be mostly populated by brain dead jokers who screams and shout to get attention and don't really care about the opinions of other posters.
• gaoyue

  30 May 04, 09:45

  The question should be focused on how effective is China forcing Taiwan out of business if Taiwan decides to declare complete independence.
  
  There is a chance to succeed, an all out warfare is completely out of question here so the only thing China can do, and praying she does not anger other trading partners, is to attack Taiwan's economies, but even then, the situation will never last long simply out of international pressures.
  
  Ah Bian is playing with fire, but we can't say he is doomed to fail. Just my opinions.