Bolkestein: EU faces ‘implosion’ risk over Turkey
Europe could meet the same fate as the Austro-Hungarian Empire if Turkey joins the EU, a senior European commissioner has warned.
EU internal market chief Frits Bolkestein has sparked controversy with a Monday speech sounding a strong note of caution over AnkaraÂ’s bid to join EuropeÂ’s exclusive club.
His intervention will fan the flames of debate ahead of an October 6 Brussels report on TurkeyÂ’s suitability to be part of the EU.
Opponents to Turkish EU membership – with strong voices in Germany and France – are concerned that Turkey’s large population and Islamic culture could transform the face of Europe – a view Bolkestein appears to share.
“It is obvious that Turkey must still go through large changes, until it is eligible. Up to the entry their identity will have itself to change fundamentally,” he said.
“But with the entry of a country with today 68 million inhabitants - and perhaps 83 million inhabitants in the year 2010 – the EU will also strongly change.”
“After the entry of Turkey the EU cannot continue its previous agrarian and regional policy simply as it had. Europe would implode.”
Too many Turks
Right-wingers and Christian Democrats in France and Germany are opposed to Turkey’s membership on 'cultural' grounds – arguing that the entry into the EU of almost 70 million Muslims will change Europe forever.
Many EU officials believe that Ankara’s ‘accession’ process could take up to ten years – 2014 or later – by which time Turkey’s population could be as large as Germany.
Under the EUÂ’s new constitution voting rights are closely tied to population size, opening up the possibility of Turkey altering EuropeÂ’s balance of power in an unprecedented way.
Berlin with 82m citizens is the EU heavy hitter in decision-making EU councils of ministers, and France is in second place with a population of 60.4m.
Turkey, if it joined the EU now, would immediately become a major player pushing France into third and the UK into fourth ranking.
Battle of Vienna
Comparisons made by Bolkestein to the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the 1683 Battle of Vienna will turn the heat up on commission and EU discussions on Turkey.
“The American Islam expert Bernard Lewis has said that Europe will be Islamic at the end of this century,” he said.
“I do not know if this is right, or whether it will be at that speed, but if he is right, the liberation of Vienna in 1683 would have been in vain.”
The Dutch commissioner’s lurid imagery – the collapse of an empire that triggered WW1 and the decisive 17th century battle between Christians and Muslims in religious wars for the heart of Europe – has been played down by his spokesman.
“He says that in common with other enlargements Europe must be well prepared,” he said.
“The comparison with the Austro-Hungarian Empire was that empire was created in a piecemeal manner, ad hoc. It was not properly prepared. The problem which the empire encountered, an implosion, was caused by lack of prior preparation,” he said.
“If [Bernard Lewis’s prediction] were to happen it would be a neutralisation of what happened in 1683.”
The commission's official spokesman has distanced the rest of the EU executive from Bolkestein's "own view".
"The position of the commission will be seen, read and hopefully understood this October," he said.
"I choose to take [Bolkestein's speech] in the context of liberty and freedom of expression."
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The entry of Turkey achieve either of two things.One, it will show the world that the European Union is not a Christian council of power.Two, it could remake Europe's social, economic and ethnic fabric quite significantly that a Europe a few decades down the line might turn quite divers and peaceful, or fragmented and in danger of civil war within the Union.Turkey may have in her hands the ability to impsoe a paradigm shift in the thoughts and attitudes of Europeans everywhere,How she uses it is going to be very interesting to watch.