Originally posted by paperchicken:
I think Sylvia Lim will win if she run in an SMC.
Dear Paperchicken,
Do you seriously think that other than Potong Pasir and Hougang, anyone could ever win in any SMC?

This has been actively debated among my comrades. I hole the view that no one would be able to win any SMC other than those previously won 10 or 20 years ago.
In strategic terms, these SMCs are considered as "killing field". PAP is too eager to put up strangle hold on their monopoly power and they are not here to make sure that there are enough SMCs for opposition parties to contest, but rather, to divert opposition parties' efforts into a battlefield that they could never win.

How do it? It is pretty simple. PAP made a mistake back in 1991 to have SMCs up for snatch without much considerations. Later, they are smarter, introducing elected Presidency. The elected Presidency scheme was an effort for data collection, on the voting patterns of Singaporeans based on "proxy opposition". That is why they set "high" standards to deter any credible threat from any opposition members in this contest. They fielded both trusted candidates of their own, though one is viewed as "PAP man" as the other long serving civil servant.
Why the need for such data collection? This is basically to make it easier for boundaries to be redrawn, to exact precision, carving out areas stipulated as "killing field"; ie. where support for the PAP man is so great that it is not possible for any opposition contestor to win. Of course, the common practice of dissolving "danger zones" still exist; eg. like Cheng San, Eunos, Anson, Bukit Gombak... etc etc.
Many opposition parties are too "practical" and think they could possibly win a SMC. These are misguided views. These are the exact places whereby PAP wants you to be there, so they could concentrate their firepower with a proxy known advantage of support on the ground!
On the contrary, I think it is much easier for opposition parties to win GRC, provided they could come up with elements that could sway the middle ground. This is especially so when the past "stronghold" of PAP has been averaged out by various absorption of "danger zones". To make it "safer them, they actually split ChengSan into three pieces so to be absorbed by three different GRCs, namely, Aljunied, Pungol Pasir Ris and Ang Mo Kio GRC. This is to say that they are not confident about the ability of any of these three GRCs to absord Chengsan as a whole. It reveals the vulnerability of their GRC system.
Thus, I think for the next general election, if there isn't any big changes, opposition could possibly win one GRC. As for SMC, I am not that optimistic that any opposition party could break through the two seats we have at present.
However, there is a catch here. PAP may choose to have a Presidential election first, before holding the GE. The reason, as given, is for sharpening up the precision of data collection. After one decade, due to movements on the ground, the spread could be very different right now. I think they will play safe and call a Presidential election first.
Goh Meng Seng