Report: MÂ’sian Armed ForcesÂ’ Modernisation
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And cutting the cpf did not affect everyone? .. you have to top for the housing loan out of your own pocket. Suicide rates will increase. Our kids will prostitute themselves for more money.
and yes.. you are probably to commit suicide if what you say is true. and yes..... when the govt cut the cpf everybody complains... but no one mention about the relief package... it is not the same but at least give the govt credit for that.... cutting the cpf will not create a massive social problem as you imagine....
The scenario you paint is as possible as my scenario. Cutting the defense budget does not mean that every part of the military will be affected. In fact, a good military will be able to handle budget cuts. The USA military is still the best, despite lots of budget cuts during Clinton's presidency.
are you sure? the joint chiefs were complaining that they have a problem fighting 2 wars at the same time.
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you also seems to forget to look at the big picture.... in the early 80s, when LKY, when to KL, there was acutally threats made to cut off the water supplies......... at that time, LKY said that if they really do it, then the SAF will be send in to secure the water supplies..... the msians knew that LKY meant it, that is why they can only thump their chest and do nothing else.
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And since then, they have found out that there is many ways to skin a cat (what Dr Mati said) .. are they exerting military pressure? No .. are they exerting political, economic and social pressure? Yes.
precisely..... you just confirm what i have said earlier...... do not understand why you are contradicting yourself here. they can only exert presure... but they know where the line in the sand is.......
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this is so since in the geopolitical arena in asia-pacific, the strength of the armed forces is the bargining chip of the state, the more bargining chip you have, the more noise you can make.
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The strength of the economy is the second bargaining chip. If you have a strong military but your economy sucks, people still wont respect you.
where does the strength of economy comes from if investors do not feel secure? from your pocket or your load of flawed arguments?
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investing in the defence is also an investment in our foreign policies. the armed forces play a vital role in our diplomacy...........
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Economy plays a more important role in foreign policy than military might.
what load of bull......do you think nowadays a nation armed with the latest weaponary just to go to war or for territorial gains? hello we are no longer living in that era..... it is all about barginning chip...military might compliments your diplomacy because people you what you can do and back up your claims........ just like what clinton did in 1995 taiwan presidential election.... sending 2 cvs to the taiwan straits is not intended to start a war but more to send a diplomatic message.....
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to cut back on the defence budget will lead to a change in our foreign policies.... without any credible bargining chip, do you think other nations will think twice before talking?
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If we cut back our troops, no one will notice. If we cut back our foreign investment, everyone will notice
when are we cutting back on foreign investment? cutting the defence budget doesn't mean that troops will be cut.... you can cut corners in maintainence, training and logistics.... given that we do not have a large standing army.... what numbers are we to cut in the first place?
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this is not only about economics..... it has some other intangible benefits which cannot be measure by $$$.
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This I agree with you .. having a strong military will ensure that the current government has all the guns and prevent any attempts by disatisfied citizens from protesting too strongly. This is an unbeatable strategy. Countries like Indonesia, North Korea, Namibia, Chad, Uganda, Chile, Bolivia all follow this strategy. Glad that we are in such good company.
[b]can you give me an example when was the last time SAF trained its guns on its citizens? you seems to have forgotten that we have conscription.... meaning to say that the soldiers are the citizens... the examples you have given is flawed.... try using a set of example whereby a country that has conscription used its soldiers on its people.. then i am convince..
you want to talk about politics and economics, that is fine with me... but please at least get your facts correct first..... your arguments are so lame and your examples are so flawed that i am really having a good time laughing....[/b] -
Argh...screw those malaysians, i say, we should launch a counter-attack and take over JB. We *&#^*(@&$ malaysians....
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Dear Duotiga,
If you want to see where our economy is headed, just look at australia for example. Its the nearest developed country and a good model of what being a developed economy is like. (not to mention, the best statistics currently for a developing country)
They are having their best year at this moment. Unemployment is at 6.2%, Growth rates at 3%, birthrate is flat, and they do have lots of commodities to export.
So in 10-15 years time, Singapore becomes a fully developed nation, that looks like the scenario we are going to have. Are we stable socially and politically at unemployment of 6.2%? How about with the same kind of economic growth rates? We already reached that milestone of flat rate of population increase. However, we are still going to be without resources. Are we ready for that kind of challenges in the economy? Japan progressed very well right up to the 90s but now is in their 10th year of recession.
So I can say that due to the changing face of our economy, we can't keep certain models constant. Military spending being one of them. And what are the other bad news heading our way?
The first I can tell you right now is the CPF is in deep shit. Almost every western country's pension fund is in trouble. We will face ours very soon. Those with PR and those commuting from JB are only allowed to withdraw their CPF funds when they reach 55. We had our great influx of them in 1980s. (remember the dean of NUS who got slashed? He was a PR and worked 21 years in Singapore) He had 9 years to go before turning 55.
So assuming that there are about 100k of them retiring at 55 (out of the 1 million foreigners). So by 2010-2015 timeframe, they will withdraw ALL their money. You work for 20-30 years in Singapore, I can guarantee that they will have at least S$100k in the CPF, if not heaps more. So 100k x 100k = S$10 BILLION will be withdrawn at that time. And as time goes on, more will be withdrawn as many more retire.
Unfortunately for us, our population is not growing in size, so there is no growth in the number of workers replenishing the CPF. We will have the same problem as the western countries pension funds, and will be made even worse by the fact that these wothdrawers are not going to use their pension money in Singapore, they will take it back to China, India and Malaysia.
Worse still, last year, the government announced that we can not depend on the CPF being enough for retirement in Singapore. That means EVERYONE who can, will take their money and go to somewhere cheaper. (And I don't even want to think about the property market when these FT sell their HDBs to buy houses)
I will tell you about the attack on our banking sector right after I come back from Dallas .. got a week there to thanks to bringing some customer for meetings. I love my job .. -
Originally posted by kanzer:
Good post Kanzer. Seems like some people left their brains behind in Dallas before they came back to Singapore.
quote:
And cutting the cpf did not affect everyone? .. you have to top for the housing loan out of your own pocket. Suicide rates will increase. Our kids will prostitute themselves for more money.
[b]and yes.. you are probably to commit suicide if what you say is true. and yes..... when the govt cut the cpf everybody complains... but no one mention about the relief package... it is not the same but at least give the govt credit for that.... cutting the cpf will not create a massive social problem as you imagine....
The scenario you paint is as possible as my scenario. Cutting the defense budget does not mean that every part of the military will be affected. In fact, a good military will be able to handle budget cuts. The USA military is still the best, despite lots of budget cuts during Clinton's presidency.
are you sure? the joint chiefs were complaining that they have a problem fighting 2 wars at the same time.
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
you also seems to forget to look at the big picture.... in the early 80s, when LKY, when to KL, there was acutally threats made to cut off the water supplies......... at that time, LKY said that if they really do it, then the SAF will be send in to secure the water supplies..... the msians knew that LKY meant it, that is why they can only thump their chest and do nothing else.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And since then, they have found out that there is many ways to skin a cat (what Dr Mati said) .. are they exerting military pressure? No .. are they exerting political, economic and social pressure? Yes.
precisely..... you just confirm what i have said earlier...... do not understand why you are contradicting yourself here. they can only exert presure... but they know where the line in the sand is.......
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this is so since in the geopolitical arena in asia-pacific, the strength of the armed forces is the bargining chip of the state, the more bargining chip you have, the more noise you can make.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The strength of the economy is the second bargaining chip. If you have a strong military but your economy sucks, people still wont respect you.
where does the strength of economy comes from if investors do not feel secure? from your pocket or your load of flawed arguments?
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
investing in the defence is also an investment in our foreign policies. the armed forces play a vital role in our diplomacy...........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Economy plays a more important role in foreign policy than military might.
what load of bull......do you think nowadays a nation armed with the latest weaponary just to go to war or for territorial gains? hello we are no longer living in that era..... it is all about barginning chip...military might compliments your diplomacy because people you what you can do and back up your claims........ just like what clinton did in 1995 taiwan presidential election.... sending 2 cvs to the taiwan straits is not intended to start a war but more to send a diplomatic message.....
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
to cut back on the defence budget will lead to a change in our foreign policies.... without any credible bargining chip, do you think other nations will think twice before talking?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we cut back our troops, no one will notice. If we cut back our foreign investment, everyone will notice
when are we cutting back on foreign investment? cutting the defence budget doesn't mean that troops will be cut.... you can cut corners in maintainence, training and logistics.... given that we do not have a large standing army.... what numbers are we to cut in the first place?
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this is not only about economics..... it has some other intangible benefits which cannot be measure by $$$.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This I agree with you .. having a strong military will ensure that the current government has all the guns and prevent any attempts by disatisfied citizens from protesting too strongly. This is an unbeatable strategy. Countries like Indonesia, North Korea, Namibia, Chad, Uganda, Chile, Bolivia all follow this strategy. Glad that we are in such good company.
[b]can you give me an example when was the last time SAF trained its guns on its citizens? you seems to have forgotten that we have conscription.... meaning to say that the soldiers are the citizens... the examples you have given is flawed.... try using a set of example whereby a country that has conscription used its soldiers on its people.. then i am convince..
you want to talk about politics and economics, that is fine with me... but please at least get your facts correct first..... your arguments are so lame and your examples are so flawed that i am really having a good time laughing....[/b][/b]
A few points to note, kenhor.
Without a strong military, we will be in deep shit.An example is Brunei.Now, the Malaysians are claiming billions of dollars worth of oilfield as theirs and infact, they send her navy to drive off oil exploration ships that were working for the Brunei government.As you all know, Brunei is a small country without much of a militaryIf they had a stronger defense, would such a thing happen? The malaysians would have to think twice before attacking. Without a strong military, your neighbours could now bargain with you for everything.
Now,with out a strong military, how do you expect any investors to invest in your country, knowing that anytime, somebody is going to threaten you?Even a person who does not know economics understands such a thing.
As for cutting back on our military, so what do you propose?Do it like what the newzealanders did? And expect the Australians to defend them? Even with a billateral treaty, You cannot bet that the other party will come to help you when the need arise.
And at the same time, by cutting down on the military spendings, you just caused a hell lot of people to lose their jobs in one way or another.
I suggest that you read up more before you comment on anything. If ever, you get voted to be in the government one day, i think it would be Singapores greatest lost.Probably most people in this forum will think so too. -
baloney..........Originally posted by kenhor:So I can say that due to the changing face of our economy, we can't keep certain models constant. Military spending being one of them. And what are the other bad news heading our way?
The first I can tell you right now is the CPF is in deep shit. Almost every western country's pension fund is in trouble. We will face ours very soon. Those with PR and those commuting from JB are only allowed to withdraw their CPF funds when they reach 55. We had our great influx of them in 1980s. (remember the dean of NUS who got slashed? He was a PR and worked 21 years in Singapore) He had 9 years to go before turning 55.
So assuming that there are about 100k of them retiring at 55 (out of the 1 million foreigners). So by 2010-2015 timeframe, they will withdraw ALL their money. You work for 20-30 years in Singapore, I can guarantee that they will have at least S$100k in the CPF, if not heaps more. So 100k x 100k = S$10 BILLION will be withdrawn at that time. And as time goes on, more will be withdrawn as many more retire.
Unfortunately for us, our population is not growing in size, so there is no growth in the number of workers replenishing the CPF. We will have the same problem as the western countries pension funds, and will be made even worse by the fact that these wothdrawers are not going to use their pension money in Singapore, they will take it back to China, India and Malaysia.
Worse still, last year, the government announced that we can not depend on the CPF being enough for retirement in Singapore. That means EVERYONE who can, will take their money and go to somewhere cheaper. (And I don't even want to think about the property market when these FT sell their HDBs to buy houses)
I will tell you about the attack on our banking sector right after I come back from Dallas .. got a week there to thanks to bringing some customer for meetings. I love my job ..
first of all, are you sure that you are able to withdraw the whole lump sum at 55 or is it a staggered released of funds if you are PR?
second, you assumption of 10bn is wrong..... you have only considered the cash outflow, what about the cash inflow? therefore the point you should consider is the net difference not just the withdrawal. given your analogy, we might as well look at just how much money the CPF received every month without looking at the withdrawal
third, we do not have the same set of problems facing the western nations..... their pension fund come from the tax revenues. that is why they have a higher tax rate than us. secondly, the problem facing them is the greying population...... therefore in the future, there are only two possible solutions.... either they raise the tax rate or reduce the pension amount to each individual. our CPF does not come from tax revenues. so you are comparing apples with oranges.......
your issues here are nothing new, it is already expected and therefore there are regulation and laws pertaining to the withdrawal..... you think the govt is stupid? -
That's the problem with people like him who have a problem with the way things are and think that there is a singular simple solution to them which can be implemented easily. Apparently they have only seen the problem and not the complex range of interacting factors underlying them.
I am not pro-govt., but even I know that many of the things we have a gripe with are not as simple as they seem. Being on the ground and seeing these pratical realities are far more constructive then camping in your ivory tower and proclaiming your lofty, simplistic ideas from there. Apparently of which somebody is doing very well here.
Frankly I am appaled how somebody can even come up with similar lines of reasoning, esp. on defence plans. Sitting on our island and beating off invaders? We might as well abolish our police, law and order systems and buy stronger iron gates that would be adequate to keep criminals out to save costs.
Cut our military spending to save the economy? Not by a long shot that's going to work in our case. It's not a solution to our problem, and is at best a stopgap measure. And some moron can be as half-smart to suggest that our military is redundant. (Which I suspect is more steming from his hatred of draft then actual logic)
Some people don't think before they speak