Originally posted by YourFather:
Well, whatever your views on carriers are, the pentagon sure ain't sharing them. With the recent denial of airbasing rights by even allies like Turkey, the Pentagon has realised the requirement to be self-sufficient. Naysayers of the carriers like you in the US have been silenced by recent events. Dont ever doubt the carrier. It's versatility is what makes it so well regarded by the US. Can a cruise missile carry out Airspace control? Can it carry out close-air support? Can it carry out ASW? Most importantly, can it establish [b]presence and show the might of the United States? One carrier showing up off the coast of a state means that USA is saying to them, "Dont play play with me". What can come close to such a display of might? "97,000 tons of diplomacy" - nothing comes close. [/b]
Bah, you are thinking way too old school. Anyway I was speaking on the carriers in revelance to our context, why cruise missiles are far more useful to us then commiting tons of money into getting a pseudo CAG when our LSTs are already near to fufilling that capability.
In the future, however, the carrier's days are greatly limited. Once cruise missile technology develops to the point when you can hit... say... Lebanon from White Sands in just 20 minutes, the carrier grows greatly redundant for hitting targets.
Why do you need grandose airbases or carriers in the future when you don't really need manned aircraft with limited range to plink targets at great cost and risk when a far cheaper, and more effective solution can be arranged?
As for ASW, why do you need a carrier to carry it out for when the most effective system in itself is another SSN or a dedicated craft like a Future Surface Combatant. If anything, it's all to easy to note that the carrier's ASW's capabilities are not really offensive, but they are rather defensive. If anything, the USN devotes an inordinate amount of resources just to make sure it's vulnerable carriers don't fall prey to subs.
Consider all this cost just to project 97,000 tons of steeL, or preform it's primary mission, getting planes and bombs to the target:
Fleet escort.
Defensive aircraft/Interceptors/ASW
Alegis Missile Shield
Subsurface defensive elements
Supportive elements
The cost of all this, is quite staggering, that's why only the US could afford keeping this up. But in the end, technology will evolve way faster then you can spend to defend a 30 knot ship. How would a carrier fare against a saturation attack of future hypersonic smart anti-shipping munitions?
Can the carrier and all it's defensive elements take on a saturation smart munition attack? In order for the defence to work it has and must work 100 percent of the time, for even a single hit on a carrier would most likely put it out of it's job for a few months, and in the worst cases, sink it. And that's a pretty heavy investment into defending an asset who's main job is to act as an airbase at sea. More akin to devoting a large amount of your defense budget into making defensive measures for an SM-1 tank just so it can shoot it's 75mm gun.
I'm not saying the carrier is obsolent for now, but it is going senile, which means that the carrier now has to devote more and more resources towards making sure it survives just to do its job. And that dosen't change no matter how the carrier fares now... it's just simple progression of technology. Like the rifle arm replaced the longbow which itself replaced the thrown rock. At the end of the day, it's the math of war that matters. Such technology is already in the works, and it's only a matter of time.
Why did the battleship get phased out as the king of the sea? Not because it could not do it's job of shelling targets and generally shooting, but simply because a carrier with it's longer reach and ability to deploy munitions with far more range and flexibility was simply far cheaper and more effective to operate. It works the same way in the future world of hypersonic smart munitions.
In the end, while 97,000 tons of steel makes good diplomacy, if it can be taken out with near future technologies, it dramatically alters the status quo.
With the status quo changed, why do cruise missiles need to carry out airspace control or ASW operations? Though this a possible consideration for their future application. All these supposed staples of warfare like air superiority and the like are for one justification, to make sure munitions reach their target. If you can do this without them, why bother with them?
In the end, why does the US still use carriers? Because there is no nation yet on earth which can challange them. But will this always be so? When such technology gets about and it will. As Smith would say... "It is inevitable"
A good read:
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/bookrev/friedman.htm