2006: Crossroads for Taiwan, China and S.E.Asia?
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Looking at the recent procurements of military hardware by Singapore and Malaysia, mostly equipment that is not meant for local hotspots or littoral warfare, its interesting too to hear from one forumnite in Asia & Pacific Defence Forum offer his views too..
Sigh....! Why is it always that when either Singapore or Malaysia gets a some new toy to play with it has to be seen as directed at one another. Singapore gets Apache by 2006, means Malaysia must get something by 2006...
It is quite important that we try to overlook the suface rivalry between us and Malaysia because if a naval war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, it will have serious and dire consequences on the South East Asian Region.Why is Singapore actively pursuing the Delta-Class frigate project and doing serious research on UAVs for naval platforms?And so is Malaysia, modernising their naval fleet with the Leiku class warships.
Do you guys actually realise that many of Malaysia's and Singapore's recent military procurements are long-range military assets? Su-30s, frigates, submarines, Astros, and so on so forth. For what?
Read this article, and you might also wonder if 2006 is gonna be a difficult year.
"The year of fear for Taiwan: 2006", written by a Janes Defence Weekly writer:
http://taiwansecurity.org/News/2004/AT-100404.htm
It might also be a year of fear for South East Asia as a whole as this may descend to regional chaos - and that includes Malaysia and Singapore.
Malaysia and Singapore has no history of war against one another. But they do have a history of military occupation in WW2. Both militaries draw their lessons from that event. Therefore, if something really happens in the Taiwan Straits in 2006, its a domino effect. In fact, just do a search on what military hardware will be ready by then on both sides of the Straits, and you'll be shock
Both nations are investing huge dollars into BVR guided missiles and the question on most military planners and watchers' lips is probably, will we get involved or dragged into a naval war between Taiwan and China?If so, to what extent?It only often takes a small spark to ignite a bonfire, it could very well begin with a RSN warship escorting a supertanker/freighter thru the Straits, getting caught in the crossfire and the first defensive salvos are fired.It may sound incredulous now but those who look beyond the surface are usually the most prepared..So, do you think we will get involved? (P.S I would love to see a hypothetical scenario where RSN and the RMN both defend the South China Sea and the Spratlys..)
Comments?
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My apologies.Did not take notice of that thread before.
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Below is an old report.
To date China has at least 3-4 Kilo subs, 12 Sovremenny Class Missle Destroyers ... 1 for each american aircraft carrier. each destroyer packed with 8 moskit SS-N-22 sunburn anti-ship missles, the fastest in the world. The SS-N-22 is land/sea/air deployable, 3 times faster than the harpoon missle. Not to mention nuclear capable as well, designed during cold war to be a killer for american aircraft carriers.
Russian manufacturers claimed that between 1-2 missles will incapicate a destroyer, 1-5 missles a 200,000 tonne oil tanker. Also being 3-5 times faster conventional sea skimmers means there's very little reaction time allowed to jam the missle only 20-25 seconds before impact ... let alone try to deploy any countermeasures.
Also by 2006 the chinese varvag will be completed.
Russia Readies Warship for China
By Bill Gertz
Washington Times, July 12, 2000
BEIJING — Russia has completed work on a second cruise-missile ship for China and started sea trials for the new vessel two weeks ago, The Washington Times has learned.
According to Pentagon intelligence officials, the ship is the second Sovremenny-class advanced warship purchased by Beijing. It was spotted in the Gulf of Finland during the last week of June undergoing sea trials.
The exercises are expected to include at least one test launch of an SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship cruise missile, the officials said.
The ship is likely to be sent to China toward the end of this year. It is the second cruise-missile ship purchased from Russia and will give the People's Liberation Army new capabilities against U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups.
"The SS-N-22 is the most dangerous anti-ship missile in the Russian, and now the Chinese, fleet," said Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, California Republican. "Our Navy admittedly has scant ability to defend against this 200-kiloton nuclear-capable weapon."
The missile has a range of 65 miles and can deliver nuclear or conventional warheads. Chinese military writings have indicated that Beijing is working on weapons to defeat U.S. carrier battle groups.
A bill authored by Mr. Rohrabacher would prevent the United States from bailing out Russia with international lending institutions until Moscow ends all sales of Sunburn missiles.
The bill has bipartisan support and could be debated in the next several days. It states that the first of the two Sovremenny destroyers was delivered to the People's Liberation Army navy in February, operated by a mixed crew of Russian and Chinese sailors.
"Currently the Russian and Chinese government are discussing the sale of two additional Sovremenny destroyers," in addition to the first two ships, the legislation says. "The supersonic Moskit [SS-N-22] missile, which can be mounted on a naval or mobile land platform, was designed specifically to destroy American aircraft carriers and other warships equipped with advanced Aegis radar and battle management systems.
"The United States Navy considers the missile to be extremely difficult to defend against," the bill says.
The first Sovremenny destroyer arrived in China in February, and the first shipment of 24 SS-N-22s this spring, said Pentagon intelligence officials.
Increasing Russian arms sales to China are one sign of a growing alliance between Moscow and Beijing aimed at undermining the U.S. position as the sole superpower.
A U.S. official here said he is concerned about Russian arms deliveries as part of China's military modernization program. The missile destroyers, sales of Su-27 aircraft and Kilo-class submarines are the alarming signs, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
"Those are the three things that could be very important," the official said. "They reflect a relationship between Russia and China that we need to keep an eye on."
Russian arms sales began in 1991 with 26 Su-27s worth an estimated $1 billion. In 1994, China purchased four Russian diesel-powered Kilo submarines, which the U.S. Navy considers advanced and difficult to detect. Russian technicians also have been spotted by U.S. intelligence agencies assisting China's program to build land-attack cruise missiles, similar to the U.S. Tomahawk.
Russian scientists also are reportedly assisting China's development of laser weapons, space-based weapons, and nuclear submarines. China also plans to use Russia's satellite navigation system for missile guidance.
Defense Secretary William S. Cohen arrived here yesterday to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Chi Haotian. The issue of Chinese weapons exports will be discussed, defense officials said.
Official Chinese spokesmen yesterday attacked U.S. plans for a national missile defense, calling it part of American plans to dominate the world. "We urge the United States to drop as soon as possible this plan, which does not serve its interest and harms that of others," Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi told a news conference as the defense secretary arrived in the Chinese capital.
Mr. Cohen said earlier he will tell the Chinese military that the limited U.S. national missile defense will not pose a threat to China's small strategic nuclear arsenal.
A Chinese commentator writing in the Guangming Daily yesterday said that the U.S. missile defense "is aimed at building up an overwhelming military superiority for the United States and permanently maintaining its status as the only superpower in the world." A U.S. missile defense would force both China and Russia "into developing new weapons," said the commentator, Xu Fukang.
Asked about the Chinese report, Mr. Sun said: "We will determine our disarmament policy in accordance with the development of the anti-missile system."
Disclosure of Russia's completion of the new cruise-missile destroyer comes as Congress is set to debate legislation to punish Moscow for those sales.
Russia's AVN news agency reported on Monday that the Sovremenny destroyer will be supplied to the Chinese in November. The agency quoted a spokesman for the Russian Baltic Fleet headquarters as saying the ship is undergoing "state tests." It did not elaborate.
The report said the Chinese crew would begin training on the new ship in October.
In a related development, Russia's Itar-Tass news agency announced last week that Russia will send China the first batch of 10 advanced Su-30 warplanes by the end of the year. The Chinese have purchased a total of 40 Su-30s. -
Perhaps to prevent old questions from being tossed up again we should have a sg-military-faq file available quick search and browse.Originally posted by cavsg: