Can We Depend on U.S.A To Defend Singapore for the Next 50yr
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But dun we have to fork out more for a larger regular force? That is the main reason why we have a conscript army in the first place. And you can't deny that NS is a good transitional stage for most of the boys.
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Moxie, appreciate your comment.
Singapore is in the unique position of being a potentially friendly floating Carrier in a very strategic location to a major power...China will try to control that carrier rather than allow the US to continue to do so -- and that is worth a tremendous value. In 20 years China probably won't need a Thai/Malaysia land bridge to project her military prowess. With Burma under Chinese influence, Thailand and to some extent Malaysia are in constant check.
In terms of historical examples think Gibraltar with the economic influence of Venice -- Spain and England fought for centuries for control over Gibraltar, and it still maintains strategic value as the gateway to the Mediterrean. No one cares that Portugal, Morrocco, etc are close by. Don't think the Chinese will be too concerned with our neighbouring states -- look at how the US treats other states in the Western hemisphere -- Granada and Panama invsions in the last 20 years, supports Contras in Nicaragua, has large numbers of paramilitary in Ecudor, Venezula, Columbia, occupies part of Cuba and economically blockades it -- basically does whatever it wants and treats these states as raw material providers, China will likely handle Asean states in a similar fashion -- i.e. they are pretty irrelevant when you focus on the core strategic objectives -- safety of shipping lines, control of choke points. -
China is stirring. I recall this breathtaking engineering project they announced some time back, about building a network of pipelines from Xinjiang across 7-8 provinces to Shanghai. Not sure if it's completed yet (didn't share the limelight with the 3 Gorges Gam).
Recently they made another, & I found an archival report on it: They wanna "reduce its vulnerability over imported oil shipped via the Malacca Strait by building a pipeline to a port in Myanmar ... [to] ensure that supplies will continue even when passage through the narrow & already very congested waterway is disrupted for whatever reasons."
... Given that four-fifths of its oil imports now pass through the Malacca Strait and the fact that China does not have a blue-water navy to protect the route, Beijing is distinctly uneasy about the risk of blockage should fighting with the United States break out over Taiwan.
This issue was first raised by Chinese President Hu Jintao at a Central Economic Meeting on Nov 29 last year. He asked officials to come up with possible solutions.
According to a source, the officials proposed four, with the first three centred on building a pipeline from the south-western province of Yunnan to Myanmar, from north-western Xinjiang province to Pakistan, or from Tibet to Bangladesh. The fourth solution entailed helping Thailand to build its Kra Canal.
The source said the Bangladesh option was ruled out almost immediately because it meant passing through Indian territory.
The Pakistani option is being considered in tandem with a railway line that China intends to build, linking up Kashi (Kashgar) in southern Xinjiang with the Pakistani port of Karachi in the Indian Ocean.
But this route has to pass through rugged terrain with harsh climatic conditions, thus posing formidable technical difficulties.
By comparison, the Myanmar option is more appealing, both politically and technically.
They're said to be already negotiating with Myanmar officials. It's an audacious vision - many hundred times longer our own pipeline to Indonesia - & it looks like they're prepared to economically bypass Singapore-Straits of Malacca if need be.
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/eyeoneastasia/story/0,4395,264296,00.html -
Interesting, logical but unnecessary if they secure Singapore as the Chinese Navy and Airforce's regional base -- don't think Malaysia or Indonesia would attempt to engage China in 20 years. Problem with Myanmar is that ultimately the regime there will collapse and they may lose their friendly proxy state -- other than annexing Myanmar altogether. No one would have buillt the Panama or Suez canals if a major alternate route were merely 500 miles away.
Basically if I were China I would be sucking up huge to BG Lee and Singapore and pouring counter investment into SG to firm up and bind economic ties. The more relevant China is to Sg the less relevant the US becomes. They seem to fail to understand this now, but will eventually.
Of course the other solution for them is to cozy up to Malaysia or Indonesia, counter the US regional presence, and control the straits that way, which might fit in well with our neighbours if they can get their heads around the historical and racial issues. -
I wouldn't place too much faith in Myanmar.Its regime disgusts me, another authoritarian regime that is hollow on the inside and places the self-interest of the elite before the entire nation.We are rumored to have helped them in one way or another in their SIGINT and ELINT infrastructure set-up.Frankly, I'm not surprised that we would be helping them, as birds of a feather tend to flock together.I sincerely hope that the above is just a much-repeated rumour as it definitely casts aspersions on our image.
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Does anyone have any idea how pathetic the Myanmar Armed Forces are? Their weaponry lags behind majority of the SEA nations in terms of both quantity and quality, hampered by their poor economy (if it ever existed) and political sanctions.