Will COE prices dip further or will it start rising?
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Are there any people out there with reliable sources?
From what I gather from keeping up with the news. I think COE prices has already reached its lowest point ever. So, logically speaking, we can expect it to start rising anytime from now.
The car population has also increased due to the buying frenzy recently but my intuition tells me that COE prices would still hover at around 20k-22k (below 16000 cc category) till the end of Chinese New Year after which COE proces will sky-rocket back up to prevent too many people from buying any more.
Therefore, my guess is that this period - Nov 2004-Jan 2005 - would be the best time to get a brand new car.
Any opinion on this? -
There is still a lot of cars being scrap each month. So, you might want to take that into consideration.
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That's true but I think COE prices would not remain relatively low for too long. But if it does, I don't mind too because I don't have the money to buy a car now.Originally posted by Qitai:There is still a lot of cars being scrap each month. So, you might want to take that into consideration. -
i am putting my bet that it is going to stay low (~$20k) until Jun 2005....then after that, once the first batch of cars from May 2002 (with lowered PARF rebate) kicks in...the COE will slowly creep back upwards...
my two cents....therefore best time to buy car....between Mar and Jun 2005... -
Taking into acct that govt policy is to lower car cost and increase owning cost..
I say COE prices will juz dive and dive.
In addition, some thing else would get eliminated and volia, 1.6L cars will be costing 40K in 2-3 years time.
Dun quote me but if u look at the trends and the policies made over the years...
Everyone who brought car in the recent few years will suffer in 3 or 4 years...
They cant sell their car becoz theres no value and its just so darn expensive to drive.
Life is good. Take the bus and mrt...
In addition, get stakes in SMRT and COmfortdelgro.. -
That is a very interesting perspective. It sounds really logical because the people who are buying the cars now with $0 downpayment and 10 years loan might suffer because they are stuck with their monthly installment for 10 years! How long would these people take to at least break even? 4-5 years or more?Originally posted by no_speeding:Taking into acct that govt policy is to lower car cost and increase owning cost..
I say COE prices will juz dive and dive.
In addition, some thing else would get eliminated and volia, 1.6L cars will be costing 40K in 2-3 years time.
Dun quote me but if u look at the trends and the policies made over the years...
Everyone who brought car in the recent few years will suffer in 3 or 4 years...
They cant sell their car becoz theres no value and its just so darn expensive to drive.
Life is good. Take the bus and mrt...
In addition, get stakes in SMRT and COmfortdelgro.. -
the living standard in singapore is getting higher each day.... with the GST at 5% now. everthing is more exp than ever. Everything is just going up except our petite salary.... owning a car in singapore is only for those richer ppl (my opinion).... its just too exp to maintain a car...
Imagine apart frm the installments, car park, u stil hav to set aside some money every year for car maintenance, car tyres, ERP, rising car park fees, etc....
That explains for the increasing number of ppl scraping their cars, its just going to lock their finances... even taking cabs is cheaper...
So i tink the COE price is going to stay put for some time until the economy really picks up... things will change after. -
those who squeeze in MRT like me
will know all the lousy things in taking public transport. imagine having to wait for bus, switch to train and walk another 10mins to reach your office everyday. when u see young people driving cars and u wonder where they got the money from.
coe is not something for consumers, it is a mechanism to earn revenue. so if there is a new source of revenue, there is a higher probability of having lower coe. u may ask yourselves - coe is not beneficial to dealers so why all dealers big so high
?
we have real cases of cars that depreciated 10k in a year so the later u buy a car, the less u are likely to throw those hard-earned money in to the drain.
BUY A CAR ONLY IF IT IS NECESSARY -
FOr zero downpayment, it will take up to 8 years before u start paying for the Praf value...Originally posted by hotxyz2002:That is a very interesting perspective. It sounds really logical because the people who are buying the cars now with $0 downpayment and 10 years loan might suffer because they are stuck with their monthly installment for 10 years! How long would these people take to at least break even? 4-5 years or more?
TOugh luck.
Off my hand,
i remember
ALTIs was 79K
323 was 79K
VIOS was 68K
SUNny was 72K
GETZ was 63K
ACCENT was 59K
HAhaha...each of the above models are at least 7-10K cheaper now.
Coupled with depreciation...those that brought 1 year ago are staring at close to 20K of loss for 1 year of driving...
My god....
I can ask taxi driver to be 24 hour standby for me liao.... -
Originally posted by PaulQ:
i hate sitting in a mrt though...smelly body odour...
those who squeeze in MRT like me will know all the lousy things in taking public transport. imagine having to wait for bus, switch to train and walk another 10mins to reach your office everyday. when u see young people driving cars and u wonder where they got the money from.
coe is not something for consumers, it is a mechanism to earn revenue. so if there is a new source of revenue, there is a higher probability of having lower coe. u may ask yourselves - coe is not beneficial to dealers so why all dealers big so high ?
we have real cases of cars that depreciated 10k in a year so the later u buy a car, the less u are likely to throw those hard-earned money in to the drain. [b]BUY A CAR ONLY IF IT IS NECESSARY[/b]
ahh buay tahan.. -
It's interesting to note that CATA COE went down by $500, while CATE COE rose by $200.
What does this mean ?
I also found different pricing strategy adopted by different car dealers.
If we compare between car price now(when COE =22001) , and car price 3 weeks ago(when COE=22496), see following:
(1) Toyota CAT A car pricing - is the same. Vios from 57688. BM raised 500 on Nov 11, then down again to same price as 2 weeks ago.
(2) Nissan CAT A car pricing - is $500 dollars higher now.
(3) Hyundai - is the same
(4) Kia - is the same
(5) Honda - is the same
(6) Mazda - $1000 higher now.
(7) Mitsubishi lancer - $1000 higher now.
Why all car dealers , either maintain the CAT A car price, or increase it bet. 500 to 1000 ? Even though CATA coe drop by 500 now.
None of them lower the car price....
It's beginning of coe rise ? Due to year end bonus coming, for christmas and cny 05 ? -
clever boy!! good thinking!!
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Its quite typical to see increase in car sales during the year end period. Alot of people like to drive new car into the new year especially CNY..
I think the distributors are juz anticipating the demand.
As for the long run, its any body's guess...
BUY A CAR TODAY! BOOST THE ECONOMY! -
By theory, next month coe should be higher.
1. Longer waiting time till next bidding (usual is 2 weeks)
2. CNY is near
3. COE bidding for purchases from recent motorshow starts next month
Still, it anyone guess. -
Sometimes, car price movement of the major car dealers, like toyota, hyundai and nissan, give hints of probable next coe premium movement.
Compared to one week ago, now:
--> Toyota maintains its pricing.
--> Hyundai also maintains its pricing.
--> Nissan increases its sunny price by 1K.
Also...one more important news.
How much variable bonus received by civil service in Dec 04.
If indeed civil service receives 1 mth variable bonus due to Singapore 8.5% GDP growth this year, then to a certain extent, the private sector would take this into account when giving out their year end bonus.
Private sector always take cue from outlook/forecast by government.
If the civil service variable bonus remains at 0.5 mth, then I believe not much impact to be seen for coe prices.