coe prices in future
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lets try to gather some views on coming coe prices, mite be benificial to ppl who are considering if they shld buy a car now, or hold back (like me...!)
most ppl seem to tink that come april, coe quota will go down, and hence coe will prices will go back up.
others think that with the govt's ultimate aim being to make costs of ownership lower, coe will go down.
so what are your vieW?
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The only way is up....till $15k
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most probably will go up....i feel...
come april,the quota of coe released by lta will decrease thus coe will go up...maybe only...depends on the govt.
any comments?
why does singapore gov release so many coe?the reason being to rescue singapore from asian crisis...and of course,there are many ways to do that,like govt relax on the downpayment of flats to 5%...relaxing coe also plays a part....
actually,govt have to relax the coe pricing.....lan lan...why?if they die die hold on to 30K for a piece of paper......singaporean die die wont buy,coz economics unstable,then...everyone die....so,govt give in one step,to allow singaporean to be able to own a car,then singaporean also steady steady give in another step to help govt by loaning more $$ from the bank...if bank earns $$,naturally govt earns...thats explain why the 5% downpayment of the flat,and the cheap COE.....
so,depending on whether u want to grab this chance to be able to own a car of your own,or wait and see...(govt may decide,economic over,then jack up the coe....or may lower even further after the coming elections...all depends)
conclusion....up to you!!haha -
It will definitely go up.
Yes, because of the quota. The lowest point is over.. in fact i think the next 2 March biddings will shoot up by quite abit from the current 10k, cos many people who have been holding back for the past few biddings hoping for prices to drop will jump in this time, before April. -
It will generally be held at a consistence level. Remember election is coming.Originally posted by cornyfish2000:It will definitely go up.
Yes, because of the quota. The lowest point is over.. in fact i think the next 2 March biddings will shoot up by quite abit from the current 10k, cos many people who have been holding back for the past few biddings hoping for prices to drop will jump in this time, before April.
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Hmmm well, the COE prices is not controlled by the govt but rather, by the number of people who jump in at each bidding... The only thing that the govt can do to lower the COE prices is to increase the number of COEs released during the bidding, but so far it has not announced any intention to do so (any more)..Originally posted by Praetorian111:It will generally be held at a consistence level. Remember election is coming. -
Actually now the COE is controlled by the few Major car dealers.Originally posted by cornyfish2000:Hmmm well, the COE prices is not controlled by the govt but rather, by the number of people who jump in at each bidding... The only thing that the govt can do to lower the COE prices is to increase the number of COEs released during the bidding, but so far it has not announced any intention to do so (any more).. -
Whether it goes up or down, only the government makes money from it.
Not you.
Not me. -
hmm, but strange why issit that ppl seem to noe the coe quota will be reduced come april? got some spies from LTA meh?Originally posted by benhur80:most probably will go up....i feel...
come april,the quota of coe released by lta will decrease thus coe will go up...maybe only...depends on the govt.
any comments?
why does singapore gov release so many coe?the reason being to rescue singapore from asian crisis...and of course,there are many ways to do that,like govt relax on the downpayment of flats to 5%...relaxing coe also plays a part....
actually,govt have to relax the coe pricing.....lan lan...why?if they die die hold on to 30K for a piece of paper......singaporean die die wont buy,coz economics unstable,then...everyone die....so,govt give in one step,to allow singaporean to be able to own a car,then singaporean also steady steady give in another step to help govt by loaning more $$ from the bank...if bank earns $$,naturally govt earns...thats explain why the 5% downpayment of the flat,and the cheap COE.....
so,depending on whether u want to grab this chance to be able to own a car of your own,or wait and see...(govt may decide,economic over,then jack up the coe....or may lower even further after the coming elections...all depends)
conclusion....up to you!!haha
because i thought i read somewhere before that the quota will remain more or less the same in 2006, as compared to 2005? but i dunno, mebbe i was mistaken....
impt thing is, how do ppl noe it will go up? -
politics....haha
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People are so price sensitive and conditioned to 8-10k COE now, so COE very unlikely to go up to 15k. Rather than down, new COE quota may go up since itÂ’s based on no. of vehicles deregistered and guided by a 3% increase of cars on the road. No. of vehicles deregistered in 2005 is still higher than 2004. In fact, even if the new quota remains the same, COE will most likely even go down.Originally posted by tick:The only way is up....till $15k
Observe that COE continues to trend lower at similar bids to quota ratio from these 2 events which happened at similar COE quota of ~2800 but evoked the same knee jerk reactions (Cat A COE):
When COE fell SUDDENLY from 15.3k to 12k in OctÂ’05, 5927 bids followed in the next tender. Result was COE went up +2.5k to 14.5k. COE then went down -4.5k to 10k level GRADUALLY.
When COE fell SUDDENLY from 10.6k to 8k in JanÂ’06, 5517 bids followed in the next tender. Result was COE went up +2.3k to 10.3k. Hence, if COE quota remains similar, itÂ’s very likely to see COE going down GRADUALLY again. This means COE may even reach 5-6k subsequently.
Other reasons which dampen COE increase are:
1) Govt policy is to shift cost of car from ownership to usage.
2) Oil price, parking, ERP will increase vehicle usage costs and people will be discouraged to pay more for vehicle ownership.
3) Those who want to change new cars will have to fork out more cash since paper value of car nowadays have dropped so much, which will compensate with COE downwards.
4) Interest rates going up will make it more expensive to own car effectively, putting downward pressure on COE.
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my mum said that if coe is so cheap!! in the future there might not even have coe. just like malaysia
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Unless they found a better way of controlling the number of cars being registered, I believe the system of COE is to stay.Originally posted by toyota-corolla:my mum said that if coe is so cheap!! in the future there might not even have coe. just like malaysia
Alot of car buyers generally do not take into account of the misc. cost that involve in owning a car. For eg, petrol cost, carpark cost etc. Even if these cost remain high potential car buyers will still own a car being the prestige and convience that tags along with owning a car.
Malaysia is difference, their land area is thousands times bigger than singapore. However, ownership of cars remain high for many. If you match their salary to the cost of ownership of a car. -
yea i get what you mean
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dang! hope it dun go down too much though, coz i already booked my car at 10k coe...
anyways, no choice though, if it falls, good for everyone who will benefit later... i m fine becoz 10k for me is low enuff....
though i heard something abt them changing the computation formula for coe come apr, thats why coe quota will go down, but hey, it mite well be all hearsay!
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what was the cause for the $50 COE that time?Originally posted by cornyfish2000:It will definitely go up.
Yes, because of the quota. The lowest point is over.. in fact i think the next 2 March biddings will shoot up by quite abit from the current 10k, cos many people who have been holding back for the past few biddings hoping for prices to drop will jump in this time, before April.
rumour was that the fleet of taxi changing ...dun know true or not -
is it true that next yr no COe liao?
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i dun think any1 can 100% confirn that...unless they r from LTA...Originally posted by BufPuf:is it true that next yr no COe liao?
is has been a rumour that no COE for quite some time and gov will get the $ lost from COE from ERP instead -
Not possible. There is no way the government can recover the lost income via ERP charges if the COE system is scrapped. As it is now, the COE remains a major source of revenue for the government.
Another reason is that the COE system allows the govt to control exactly the number of cars on the road (via the number of COEs released). This is to prevent traffic congestion on our small island. If COE is scrapped, there would be no control over the number of cars on our roads, and that's a situation that nobody wishes to have.
That the COE system will be scrapped is mere wishful thinking. -
i know it does not sound logical to scrapped COE...but u never know...what if the ERP charges goes to like $5 or more etc...Originally posted by cornyfish2000:Not possible. There is no way the government can recover the lost income via ERP charges if the COE system is scrapped. As it is now, the COE remains a major source of revenue for the government.
Another reason is that the COE system allows the govt to control exactly the number of cars on the road (via the number of COEs released). This is to prevent traffic congestion on our small island. If COE is scrapped, there would be no control over the number of cars on our roads, and that's a situation that nobody wishes to have.
That the COE system will be scrapped is mere wishful thinking.
Singaporean will only complain but accept later...what to do -
my take is Coe will remain stable in the region of 10-15k.
not likely for it to shoot pass 20k again. There will be no demand as ppl are conditioned to 'low' car price now.
On the other hand, the hope of COE dropping back to 5-8k is highly unlikely as well... -
Not too long ago, people can't imagine COE to drop from 30k to 20k, then 20k drop to 15k, then 15k drop to 10k and ppl think that's it, no lower, but it went further down to 8k... if my earlier analysis makes sense, there is still some room to move down to maybe 5-6k.Originally posted by incredible:On the other hand, the hope of COE dropping back to 5-8k is highly unlikely as well...
People are not just conditioned to low COE, but also conditioned to COE dropping... so I believe 5-6k is very possible. but let's see how the new COE quota will turn out. If there is a signifcant reduction e.g. 20% then I'm sure COE will be able to move up to 15k, otherwise it'll just fall again... My take is 5-6k is the lowest COE can go for Cat A, since this level is about 10% of total car cost already. -
hmmm....Originally posted by kmkm:Not too long ago, people can't imagine COE to drop from 30k to 20k, then 20k drop to 15k, then 15k drop to 10k and ppl think that's it, no lower, but it went further down to 8k... if my earlier analysis makes sense, there is still some room to move down to maybe 5-6k.
People are not just conditioned to low COE, but also conditioned to COE dropping... so I believe 5-6k is very possible. but let's see how the new COE quota will turn out. If there is a signifcant reduction e.g. 20% then I'm sure COE will be able to move up to 15k, otherwise it'll just fall again... My take is 5-6k is the lowest COE can go for Cat A, since this level is about 10% of total car cost already.
how about $1 or $50 COE ? -
but if coe quota if due to annouce in April, there is only 2 more biddings left. with the leftover backlog of orders from the 8k and 10k coe, i think the coe levels for the next 2 rounds will still remain ard 10k, and then, come apr, when coe quota cuts (as expected), coe will start to move up.... i tink it will stabilise at 15kOriginally posted by kmkm:Not too long ago, people can't imagine COE to drop from 30k to 20k, then 20k drop to 15k, then 15k drop to 10k and ppl think that's it, no lower, but it went further down to 8k... if my earlier analysis makes sense, there is still some room to move down to maybe 5-6k.
People are not just conditioned to low COE, but also conditioned to COE dropping... so I believe 5-6k is very possible. but let's see how the new COE quota will turn out. If there is a signifcant reduction e.g. 20% then I'm sure COE will be able to move up to 15k, otherwise it'll just fall again... My take is 5-6k is the lowest COE can go for Cat A, since this level is about 10% of total car cost already.
think abt it, coe is to control the no of cars on the rd. so it has to be a significant enuff portion of the car cost to have an impact....
if coe does fall to 5k, i think it wld not be such an influencing factor in a person's decision whether or not to buy a car anymore. hence, i tink coe probably wld not fall to such lows....
15k, my bet... haha -
That kind of COE price happened when the system was not as transparent as now. I don't think that is possible. but 5-6k is possible if quota remains the same. otherwise, probably stay around 8-10k. good for 1st time car buyers.Originally posted by pqr:hmmm....
how about $1 or $50 COE ?
Yes, coe is to control no. of cars, but it's dependent on no. of cars deregistered and guided by a 3% annual increase. since no. of cars deregistered last year is still higher than the year before, i don't think the figure will suddenly reduce for this year, hence won't expect too much change from last year.Originally posted by incredibleduck:think abt it, coe is to control the no of cars on the rd. so it has to be a significant enuff portion of the car cost to have an impact....
if coe does fall to 5k, i think it wld not be such an influencing factor in a person's decision whether or not to buy a car anymore. hence, i tink coe probably wld not fall to such lows....
Yes, 5k for Cat A will represent about 10% of total car cost, so I think it shouldn't fall lower, unless distributors start undercutting each other and make less margin...