Fabio Capello may well win La Liga with Real Madrid, but it won't mean that his job is secure.
When he wants to, Fabio Capello puts on a masterful expression of disdain. His haughtiness is a weapon almost as powerful as his statistics. If you don't like him, or don't admire his ways, or question his decisions, he produces the look, with jutting square jaw and intimidating eyes. He has a record of success in club football that is virtually beyond reproach - and he is on the verge of adding to that, as Real Madrid are in pole position to claim the La Liga title today so long as they beat Real Mallorca, who have nothing to play for, at home. And yet, going into this weekend's showdown, Capello's future at the Bernabeu was as sketchy as it has been for most of this exciting and edgy Spanish season.By tonight he could be in the unique position of having twice spent an individual season at Real Madrid, each time winning the championship, and then making a quick exit. Capello met Real's president Ramon Calderon last week and discussions lasted for little more than a minute. Will he stay or go? Calderon fudged the issue - as he has for many of the important calls at the club this season, David Beckham's contract and the sale of Ronaldo being other notable botches.
There is a very real prospect that Capello will celebrate the La Liga trophy, collect what remains of his £4million per year contract, and head for another challenge as Real's head honchos have made no secret of their desire for a manager who will pick a team more attuned to the club's artistic traditions. Considering that this league title would be their first major honour after a four-year drought, their longest spell without silverware for half a century, it is strange Madridistas are not on their knees thanking Capello for inspiring a miracle.
Midway through the campaign the 60-year-old, one of the most decorated coaches around, was overseeing such a calamity that the white hankies and poison pens were out in force. In February, reports of Capello's resignation just before the Champions League knockout game against Bayern Munich summed up the extent of the damage inside the camp. It would get worse - Real were knocked out.
In the next game they faced Barcelona in Camp Nou and were on the verge of a complete implosion. But Capello's never-say-die mentality kicked in and Real Madrid went into the lair of their greatest rivals and produced their best display of the season in an electrifying 3-3 draw. The tide had turned. That early exit from the Champions League turned out to be a blessing of sorts as Real were freer to settle into the luxury routine of play on Sunday, two days' rest, four days' preparation.
Since then, they have lost only one of 16 games, a controversial defeat at Racing Santander. The number of comebacks, and late goals, they mustered revealed an ability to compete that nobody had thought possible in the first half of the season. The manager urged the team to 'come out fighting' and they responded.
How did Capello engineer this transformation? As much by luck as judgment, considering how his decisions all seemed to backfire at first. New signings such as Fabio Cannavaro and Emerson from Serie A looked horribly out of sorts. The two remaining galacticos were headaches that were not cured smoothly as Beckham was made an outcast and Ronaldo sold on the cheap to Milan, much to the displeasure of his friends among the playing staff. Capello tinkered with the best of them, but nothing much came off.
But, as he explains: 'Clever people are capable of rectifying their mistakes, and recognising when they've said or done something wrong.' Beckham was reinstated and reborn. Ruud van Nistelrooy grew in confidence without the shadow of Ronaldo beside him. Cannavaro and Emerson improved to an acceptable level of competence. Even two of Madrid's nagging underperformers, Raul and Robinho, were revived. 'We had to recover the spirit Madrid has had throughout its history,' the manager observed.
Capello the motivator has struck the right notes with the players. This is symbolised by the habitual squad aperitivo the manager introduced two days before each game. The idea is that everyone sits together at a big table and shares a glass and a friendly chat. At the start of the season no more than three or four players stuck around. Now, all 24 seats are booked up and it is standing-room only for the rest.
Calderon still might not be convinced, but Capello is rightly proud of recent results and the opportunity that lies ahead over 90 minutes today. If he leaves Madrid again after one season with a big medal in his pocket, who looks like the clever one? 'Whether the coach stays or not doesn't just depend on winning the league, and no one in the club sees it that way,' said Calderon last week. 'The coach should stay on if we think he is capable, whether the league is won or lost.'
You cannot help suspecting the last drink might be on Fabio Capello.