S'pore economy expected to grow 9% this year
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S'pore economy expected to grow 9% this year: MAS survey
SINGAPORE : Private sector economists are even more bullish about Singapore's economic outlook, raising their full year 2010 growth forecasts for Singapore.
Those polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for its latest Survey of Professional Forecasters now expect the Singapore economy to grow by nine per cent this year.
This is an upgrade from their previous expectations for a 6.5 per cent growth made just three months ago in March.
The nine per cent forecast is at the upper end of the government's official forecast for seven-to-nine per cent growth.
And for next year, economists expect growth to average 5.5 per cent.
Looking at the various sectors, economists also upgraded the likely growth of four of the five industries.
Double-digit expansion is expected for the manufacturing, construction and wholesale and retail trade sectors, though financial services is expected to grow as well.
The private economists say the manufacturing sector is now expected to expand by close to 17 per cent.
Construction will grow by 10 per cent and the financial services sector is expected to grow by nine per cent.
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports are expected to grow almost 18 per cent.
As for 2011, the private economists expect the economy to grow 5.5 per cent.
Manufacturing is predicted to drive growth, as economists forecast a 16.7 per cent on-year increase, up from the previous forecast of 9.7 per cent.
The only exception is the hotels and restaurants sector, where respondents cut their forecast from 8.5 per cent to 8.2 per cent.
For the second quarter this year, economists say growth may probably come in at 9.4 per cent on-year, higher than 6.3 per cent in the previous survey.
With higher growth, analysts also expect consumer prices to creep up.
Their median inflation forecast for the full year climbed marginally from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with second quarter inflation expected at 3.2 per cent.
As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be at 2 percent by the end of the year, unchanged from the previous survey.
19 respondents took part in the survey. - CNA/jy -
Good news.
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19 respondents took part in the survey.
Wow!
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
19 respondents took part in the survey.
Wow!
haha lol -
Big year end bonus for civil servants loh!
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nowadays only the govt benefit.
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Actually it will grow even more, just that private sector economist are smart enough to only give conservative values, otherwise spoil market, and let the damn civil servants take even more.
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for those who have worked in any of those glc companies....they have many levels of payouts....but they usually publish the best bonus payouts at the top leading to people to believe that everyone would share in it but only the top few % get it....becos most of them are either contract staffs or not in the central HQ...i.e. u can say they got 10 months bonus but most of them get market bonus of about 1 or those who really well liked would get at most 1.5 to 2 months (without AWS).....
this is what happened inside...
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9% growth means 9% increment in salaries?
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If I havent read wrongly, all these years has been manufacturing driving the growth rate. Which can be rather misleading as we have other sectors that could have shrunk but not reported.
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Whatever they have not reported are the ones that have shrunk lor.
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Economy is always growing. But i don't see my salary growing leh. FOS
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Sometime we need to take stock of what does 9% growth means?
does it translate to 9% increase in employment?
Does it translate in an increment of Real wage?
or does it means that Property price exponentially increase by 18%?
In Singapore economics benefit in financial capital sector does not necessary means a spill over effect over income or employments because they are adsorb by foreign employments, and hike in property speculators. The spread over local employment and real wage are minimum.
Our EDB never look at the effect of Singapore income gap and Income vs housing inflation.
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Originally posted by ditzy:
Big year end bonus for civil servants loh!
yah haha lol -
GDP has started to boost up once again after recession...
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Originally posted by charlize:
9% growth means 9% increment in salaries?
Means the increase of 2 million (50%) in population only resulted in a 9% increase in GDP.
Which explains why the GDP per Capita for Singapore is on the decline.
From a high of S$58,058 in 2007, it has dropped to S$53,143 in 2009.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/economy/hist/gdp.html
We were having the 20 years ago Swiss Standard of Living, but in another 20 years we will have degenerated to the China standard of living.
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Originally posted by βÎτά:
Means the increase of 2 million (50%) in population only resulted in a 9% increase in GDP.
Which explains why the GDP per Capita for Singapore is on the decline.
From a high of S$58,058 in 2007, it has dropped to S$53,143 in 2009.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/economy/hist/gdp.html
We were having the 20 years ago Swiss Standard of Living, but in another 20 years we will have degenerated to the China standard of living.
Without the massive influx of the FT and new population, Singapore's GDP might be a lot less.
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Originally posted by Clivebenss:
19 respondents took part in the survey.
Wow!
The 19 respondents are not just 19 individuals.
These 19 respondents represent the 19 predictions of 19 econometric models of the Singapore economy developed by the economists of the 19 banks and institutions.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
Without the massive influx of the FT and new population, Singapore's GDP might be a lot less.
Yes. Each person in Singapore used to make S$58,058 in 2007, after 2 years of FT penetration, the GDP per capita dropped to S$53,143.
It only means that FT is actually pulling down the GDP per capita, an increase in GDP is different from an increase in GDP per Capita. The quality of earnings has dropped considerably.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
The 19 respondents are not just 19 individuals.
These 19 respondents represent the 19 predictions of 19 economic models of the Singapore economy developed by the economists of the 19 banks and institutions.
I didn't see cliveness mention that it was individuals.
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Originally posted by βÎτά:
Yes. Each person in Singapore used to make S$58,058 in 2007, after 2 years of FT penetration, the GDP per capita dropped to S$53,143.
It only means that FT is actually pulling down the GDP per capita, an increase in GDP is different from an increase in GDP per Capita. The quality of earnings has dropped considerably.
GDP per capita = GDP / population.
Case I
Assume no massive influx of FT and new population
For the past 2 - 3 years, Singapore's economy is in recession ie the GDP will fall sharply, so the GDP per capita will decrease sharply with the population unchanged as it is under the assumption of no massive influx of FT and new population
Case 2
Assume massive influx of FT and new population
WIth the influx of the FT and new population, GDP did not fall as much, the GDP per capita did not fall as much in case 1 using the statistics in your earlier post.
ie S$58,058 in 2007, after 2 years of FT penetration, the GDP per capita dropped to S$53,143 ie a fall of approximately of 10% in GDP per capita, taking note that the population has increased by 50% using the statistics in your earlier post.
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Originally posted by βÎτά:
I didn't see cliveness mention that it was individuals.
Indeed, Cliveness did not mention individuals.
I just wish to clarify that the 19 respondents actually referred to 19 predictions of 19 econometric models of the Singapore economy developed by the economists of the 19 banks and institutions.
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Originally posted by Seowlah:
Indeed, Cliveness did not mention individuals.
I just wish to clarify that the 19 respondents actually referred to 19 predictions of 19 economic models of the Singapore economy developed by the economists of the 19 banks and institutions.
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19 from private sector... Let me guess who they are...
SIA, CapitaLand, DBS Bank, POSB Bank, UOB Bank, Singpost, Singapore Power, Singtel, Starhub, SMRT, SLRT, SBS Transit, M1, Mediacorp, Tiger Airways, Silk Air, Tradewinds, RWS, MBS??? -
Originally posted by Clivebenss:
Clivebenss, just realise that u are Chew Bakar from the nostalgic picture in ur avatar.