Gambling, like forex trading, never pays....
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Just to add on, the reason the entire process of getting machines to output odds values is because of the circular process of the whole thing. An assumption is made in this process that violates statistics:Originally posted by Stoat:An accurate discription. However there is one thing I would like to add. Past performance is never an accurate indicator of future success. You can have the machine backtest historical figures and spit out all the charts you want, there is still a good possibility that the end result differs from what actually happens. The only reason why machines are used is because institutional investors handle extremely large sums of money everyday. They are never a substitute for the skill of the investor in setting the terms and conditions for the machine to determine the result.
To the home investor, I would suggest taking a course on reading financial ratios which are crucial to fundamental analysis.
I rank:
Fundamental Analysis:60%
Technical Analysis*:10%
Luck:30%
*what the machine does
Probability of outcome will be reflected in long run values.
long run values can be used to estimate probability of outcome.
Combined, these assumptions create a circular logic argument. Unfortunately, this is the best we can get currently, so it will have to do. The market is such an unpredictable environment any help counts.
Touching on fundamental analysis VS technical analysis. I'm aware that these are considered competing ideas. But for the home investor, I recommend that whichever side you support, always look to the opposing front for affirmation before investing.
Just because fundamental analysis determines a price will rise does not mean you should run in blindly. Even if you scoff at TA, take the time to appreciate the theories and run them through quickly. If both methods support your view that the price will rocket, you can go in with so much more confidence. This applies similarly to people who put stock in TA and scoff at the fundamentals.
There's no such thing as luck in the industry, only variance=) -
Are we talking about forex trading or equity investment?
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Huh, now there is "bankroll management " again? So "odds ARE everything or not?Originally posted by deathbait:But i'll elaborate a little here. If you want to make money from investments, odds are everything. If you want to avoid going broke, bankroll management is important. Risk vs Reward. The age old question of finding the balance.
huh "want to make money from investments, odds are everything" but depending on odds can make you go broke?
huh?
huh?
huh?
huh?
huh?
huh?
huh?
huh?
huh?
"Gross stupidity"
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... a fool leading other fools (that supported your position that "odds ARE everything" ) to becoming broke...
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Ladies and Gentlemen, you heard it from the grossly foolish person's own mouth...... if you depend on "odds being everything..." a position that he kept repeating ad nuseum... and
but if you depend on his mantra that he was "not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything."Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:Let me make a record...
Originally posted by deathbait: 23 November 2007 · 01:44 PM
"And i'm not afraid to say it again. Odds are everything."
It can make you go broke.... !!!!!!!Originally posted by deathbait:But i'll elaborate a little here. If you want to make money from investments, odds are everything. If you want to avoid going broke,, bankroll management is important. Risk vs Reward. The age old question of finding the balance.
What a farking ass-hole... teach people a method of gambling that can make them go broke...
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pui pui pui ... it is farkers like that that I have so much difficulty doing gambling prevention...
farking "odds ARE everything... but you can go broke.... "
he can go and fark himself.... -
It took him 13 farking pages to finally admit that if you take his advice that "odds ARE everything" "you can go broke..."
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if I do not have staying power, I wonder, other than his grossly stupid supporters that openly supported his position that "odds ARE everything.. " I wonder how many others he could have fooled...
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... and I can tell you that "bankroll management" is only another one of many other considerations that you have to consider... farking ass-hole... come here and tell people that "odds ARE everything ... " and if I did not push and insult him endlessly, he would not have admitted that "it can make you go broke..."
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wow ok. I can take it when you misquote me to attack me. I can tolerate it when you insult me and my mom. But i will not take it lying down when you misquote me to mislead the public.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:It took him 13 farking pages to finally admit that if you take his advice that "odds ARE everything" "you can go broke..."
You sir, are a first class asshole. A perfect example of what is wrong with being selfish. You troll the forums hoping to promote your book, but as has been proven, know nothing about the topic you claim to write about. You claim you have prior knowledge of commodity markets, yet is unable to come up with any proof of knowledge in the basics of investments.
You want to believe in your own filth, that's fine. DO NOT misrepresent my words to mislead the public. I point out the mathematically correct way to invest, and you laugh at my efforts. That is fine. I can chalk it down to sheer ignorance. I touch on prevention from variance and bankruptcy, and you mislead the audience to believe everything i say will make them go broke? That is just pure malice. You sir, should be ashamed of yourself. You claim to be middle aged. Act your age and respect yourself sir.
If you have nothing constructive to say, please refrain from oozing stupidity and contaminating the forums. You say you want to protect people from gambling addiction. I applaud that. It is indeed a worthwhile goal. But all I've seen you do thus far is self-promotion. You have yet to touch on anything even remotely close to gambling. Even the few words coerced out of you betray your true nature. You want to be an expert on gambling, yet you prove yourself ignorant of many aspects of gambling. You claim to be a commodities future specialist, yet refuse to acknowledge the existence of odds estimation.
So please sir, return to the hole you crawled out of this morning. Go find a job. Go do something constructive. Finish writing your book or burn it. I don't care. Just find some meaningful thing to do. But for crying out loud. Just because your life sucks doesn't mean you should pull everyone down. And that is exactly what you're doing by going around spreading disinformation.
You have ceased to be amusing to me. Spread any more harm and you will regret it. This is not a threat. It is a promise. -
Here's an updated warning. Do not take credit where credit is undeserved. You have shown absolutely zero knowledge in the realms of investment. Taking credit for disparaging me is absolutely scrapping the bottom of the barrel.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:... and I can tell you that "bankroll management" is only another one of many other considerations that you have to consider... farking ass-hole... come here and tell people that "odds ARE everything ... " and if I did not push and insult him endlessly, he would not have admitted that "it can make you go broke..."
I don't have to make you believe what I say. Trade without taking odds into top priority consideration. What do I care that you end up broke? But don't poison the minds of potential investors.
You have one day to detract every undeserving disparaging statement made thus far. You can start with this one.
If you cannot seperate the differences between investment and risk management, you are obviously not who you claim to be. So far your evidence of experience has been limited to 3 articles.
1) appointment of consultant for IT job
2) another IT apointment
3) piece of paper written in a foreign language.
I do not think you have the goods.
If you really do, bring it. -
Just in case any of you have been poisoned by the above line, note that Andrew is urging everyone to play with scared money. That's what it means when you take into consideration your bankroll when drawing up investment strategy.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:... and I can tell you that "bankroll management" is only another one of many other considerations that you have to consider... [/i]
I repeat. The strategy should remain the same no matter how much you have. Only thing bankroll management dictates is how much of your money you put into the strategy at any one time.
Your actions should be absolutely the same once commited to a strategy, be it a 5k investment, or a 500million one. -
Can be applied either way. Forex trading is more volatile, leading to higher risk. That is the main difference. Higher variance is what prompts Andrew to treat Forex as gambling. That is absurd.Originally posted by Gazelle:Are we talking about forex trading or equity investment?
Andrew claims he was a commodities futures trader. He is entirely out of his element here when he claims to know what forex trading is like.
Understand the difference between huge variance and playing to beat the odds. If anything, that should be the first thing you learn before investing in anything. Last thing you want to do is fool yourself into thinking you're making the right decisions when you're not. -
reality is.... andrew is out of his element in whatever he wants to talk about... all he has is his personal definition of what the world is.Originally posted by deathbait:Andrew claims he was a commodities futures trader. He is entirely out of his element here when he claims to know what forex trading is like.
but this page is quite fun, when andrew has gone down so low that i wasn't even sure it was possible of him boy-o-boy.... the profanities..... -
to be fair... we did try to gather proof evidence..... amazon, kino.... no proof of the existence of the book.....Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:Please continue speculating... I want to see how much foolishness and crapz people that depend on illusions and delusions in their mind, instead of proof and evidence, can generate....
i ask you to tell me where to buy the book.... for the 2,346,098 times where to buy the book.... all you need to do to prove your credibility is to SHOW ME WHERE TO BUY THE BOOK. I will buy it and I will retract my statements and show to the rest of the peeps here that you DID INDEED WRITE AND PUBLISHED A BOOK....
now, what so difficult about that! -
Originally posted by Chin Eng:reality is.... andrew is out of his element in whatever he wants to talk about... all he has is his personal definition of what the world is.
but this page is quite fun, when andrew has gone down so low that i wasn't even sure it was possible of him boy-o-boy.... the profanities.....
Mr Chin Eng, Mr Chin Eng....
You have no idea what you, he and I are talking about or I have no idea what he is talking about?
I asked him for 12 pages if there is something else to consider but he keeps insisting, no "odds ARE everything... "
Then, after 12 pages he decided that he could not escape the exposure.... and admitted that if you only consider odds, you can go broke.... and "odds are NOT everything... "
and you have to consider things like "bankroll management" ..... hmmmm I wonder what else you have to consider...
If you ask him, he will tell you: "odds ARE everything... "
I don't know anything about forex trading... ? and I have never traded forex... ? hahahaha I have even traded, for example Deuschmarks Options, if you know what those are....
... but you are a bastard... you don't even gamble or speculate... and so you are safe... hey, you have to think of other people mah... what if some kid like you own children comes into the forum and goes away thinking... "odds ARE everything... " ?
What if some kid like your children PM him and ask him if they can open an account with his company.... -
no gambling please.
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exposure?Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
Mr Chin Eng, Mr Chin Eng....
You have no idea what you, he and I are talking about or I have no idea what he is talking about?
I asked him for 12 pages if there is something else to consider but he keeps insisting, no "odds ARE everything... "
Then, after 12 pages he decided that he could not escape the exposure.... and admitted that if you only consider odds, you can go broke.... and "odds are NOT everything... "
and you have to consider things like "bankroll management" ..... hmmmm I wonder what else you have to consider...
If you ask him, he will tell you: "odds ARE everything... "
I don't know anything about forex trading... ? and I have never traded forex... ? hahahaha I have even traded, for example Deuschmarks Options, if you know what those are....
... but you are a bastard... you don't even gamble or speculate... and so you are safe... hey, you have to think of other people mah... what if some kid like you own children comes into the forum and goes away thinking... "odds ARE everything... " ?
What if some kid like your children PM him and ask him if they can open an account with his company....
As I have explained numerous times in the past(and you chose to ignore everytime), odds are everything when we were discussing trading strategies. That was the context it was used in, and i stand by it. You do not look at your bankroll when you're determining strategy. Of course, I do not expect Andrew to understand what I just said, judging from his lack of understanding of what "strategy" means.
I'm not backpedalling here. I'm branching into another aspect of investment that Andrew has never touched on, which was risk management. It is independant of trading strategy, and should remain so.
Andrew, if you claim you were indeed well versed in the art of trading, perhaps you need to explain why you lie through your teeth. No trader worth his salt will discount the importance of odds. No trader worth his salt will fail to recognise the seperation between trading strategy and risk management.
One can only conclude that either you were never an accomplished trader, or you're just lying to the general public about what it takes to trade.
I have given you the chance to apologise. This is a reminder that you now have less than a day to apologise to everyone for delibrately spreading disinformation. Do not make me come down on you. Take the high road. Admit your mistakes.
Even a fool with half a brain knows that even when the odds favour you considerably, there's always a chance of failure. Trying to grab this as a weapon against my arguments is really clutching at straws. Trust me, just give up. And yes, if there's one thing I would ever teach my kids, it would be to give great concern to the odds before trying anything.
You do a great disfavor to yours by not telling them that. -
Yah sure, trading strategy only considers odds and does not take into account that everyone loses in the end...Originally posted by deathbait:exposure?
As I have explained numerous times in the past(and you chose to ignore everytime), odds are everything when we were discussing trading strategies. That was the context it was used in, and i stand by it. You do not look at your bankroll when you're determining strategy. Of course, I do not expect Andrew to understand what I just said, judging from his lack of understanding of what "strategy" means.
I'm not backpedalling here. I'm branching into another aspect of investment that Andrew has never touched on, which was risk management. It is independant of trading strategy, and should remain so.
Andrew, if you claim you were indeed well versed in the art of trading, perhaps you need to explain why you lie through your teeth. No trader worth his salt will discount the importance of odds. No trader worth his salt will fail to recognise the seperation between trading strategy and risk management.
One can only conclude that either you were never an accomplished trader, or you're just lying to the general public about what it takes to trade.
I have given you the chance to apologise. This is a reminder that you now have less than a day to apologise to everyone for delibrately spreading disinformation. Do not make me come down on you. Take the high road. Admit your mistakes.
Even a fool with half a brain knows that even when the odds favour you considerably, there's always a chance of failure. Trying to grab this as a weapon against my arguments is really clutching at straws. Trust me, just give up. And yes, if there's one thing I would ever teach my kids, it would be to give great concern to the odds before trying anything.
You do a great disfavor to yours by not telling them that.
... and "odds ARE everything... "
Even after you have been utterly exposed, you continue to try to fool people...
Anyway, by job is done... I had you admit that "odds ARE everything... " if people want to lose all their money...
If people do not want to end up broke, they better not be foolish and listen to scam artists like yourself and believe that "odds ARE everything... "
You keep insisting that "odds ARE everything because you know that once people consider everything else... they will not gamble .... -
... and except for organizations like the casino and banks ... everyone else loses and Gambling, like forex trading, never pays....
"odds ARE everything... " and it turns out that "odds ARE everything ..." if you want to end up broke... -
actually my stand is simply this, we all have our prerogative to do whatever we want with our lives.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:... but you are a bastard... you don't even gamble or speculate... and so you are safe... hey, you have to think of other people mah... what if some kid like you own children comes into the forum and goes away thinking... "odds ARE everything... " ?
What if some kid like your children PM him and ask him if they can open an account with his company....
you want to gamble, gamble,
you want to call chicken, call chicken,
you want to call me bastard, call lah.... do you think i give a shit?
you want to eat at char kway teow store masquerading a hooker's den, do whatever you want lah....
likewise, i tell my children, you can say bad words if you choose to. i can't stop you, but as person with an independent brain, you can choose - choose to gamble, choose to use profanity (like yourself ) etc.... i believe i have raise my children wise enough for them to make the right choices.
... nonetheless, there is really nothing wrong with "odds are everything". it is probably a very simplified form of "i have make my accessment on this particular issue and have weight the pros and cons and have come to a conclusion that the outcome of the said issue will result in a manner in which i predict that it will result in"
my only issue now is, mr yap, where the hell is your book! you've talked enough about proof and evidence.... so i am asking for it. i am sure you are able to provide this proof..... if you have it! -
Originally posted by Chin Eng:
You said "... do you think i give a shit?" and for those not skilled in deciphering " shit " it is sh.it
actually my stand is simply this, we all have our prerogative to do whatever we want with our lives.
you want to gamble, gamble,
you want to call chicken, call chicken,
you want to call me bastard, call lah.... do you think i give a shit?
you want to eat at char kway teow store masquerading a hooker's den, do whatever you want lah....
likewise, i tell my children, you can say bad words if you choose to. i can't stop you, but as person with an independent brain, you can choose - choose to gamble, choose to use profanity (like yourself ) etc.... i believe i have raise my children wise enough for them to make the right choices.
... nonetheless, there is really nothing wrong with "odds are everything". it is probably a very simplified form of "i have make my accessment on this particular issue and have weight the pros and cons and have come to a conclusion that the outcome of the said issue will result in a manner in which i predict that it will result in"
my only issue now is, mr yap, [b]where the hell is your book! you've talked enough about proof and evidence.... so i am asking for it. i am sure you are able to provide this proof..... if you have it![/b]
Mr Chin Eng, you want to laugh at people for using profanity, can't you control yourself and not use vulgarities while you are in the process of at people for using profanities?
You and I come from different world views. Your world view depends on a belief system to conduct your life... imprecise thinking is of no consequences... because you depend on a set of beliefs.
If you think that having a set of beliefs is the best... well good luck to you.
I am from a different school. I think to come to decisions while you use "beliefs" to come to decisions.
The more precise my thoughts are, the better will be my decisions.
I cannot accept nonsense like "odds ARE everything" "everything is a gamble" and such generalizations as they will lead to "bad" decisions.
As far as I am concerned, there is no epistemic certainty as I said previously said in one of my posts. I also, do not do dualism.
That is to make sure that I make the best decisions possible.
You, I surmise that you cannot understand that, because you are, as I said, have a different world view, one that is dependent on beliefs rather than thinking.
OK now where are we?
Oh yah "odds ARE everything"
Did you stop and think, why if your trading strategy depends on "odds ARE everything..." you will become broke (the scam artist admitted that after I pushed him... I had to make sure he said it, so that I can drive home the point effectively, which is why I kept on insulting him until he broke.)
why, if your trading strategy depends on "odds ARE everything..." you will become broke .... ahhhh... there is something there that you need to know here....
Do you know what happens when you do "bankroll management" ? Scam artists will tell you that it will lead you to become a winner... really? ahhhhh... that is another thing you need to know....
You say that "i believe i have raise my children wise enough for them to make the right choices"... .. and I beg to differ.
You have taught your children a set of beliefs... and you have done them a disfavor, because, if they lose their beliefs, that would be tragic. You have not taught them how to make wise decisions... you cannot because you yourself do not know how to, you depend on beliefs.
... and how do people ensure that they are making wise decisions? ahhhhh... that is another thing you need to know....
You can take what I said any way you want and like you say... "... do you think i give a shit?"
I might not give a sh.it how you take what I say and you might not, you might not believe me but actually I do give a sh.it about you and I wish you well.... *shrug* -
This is the first time that the word shit has be defined as profanity, inspite of the fact that the filter here does so.... therefore is your definition of profanity dependent on the filter? bear in mind that this profanity filter also filters out cock which in reality is a male chicken..... but, yup, you are funny.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:You said "... do you think i give a shit?" and for those not skilled in deciphering " shit " it is sh.it
Mr Chin Eng, you want to laugh at people for using profanity, can't you control yourself and not use vulgarities while you are in the process of at people for using profanities? 
how can you....? you don't know me.... so stop pretending to know me.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:You say that "i believe i have raise my children wise enough for them to make the right choices"... .. and I beg to differ.
again you pretend to know me..... of course i taught my children according to what i believe to be true, i also taught my children to test whether what i teach them is really true or not.... they are on their own journey of self-discovery... at the end if they want to be a taoist or a buddhist, or an atheist, it's their business. whatever they become, they do not stop being my children.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:You have taught your children a set of beliefs... and you have done them a disfavor, because, if they lose their beliefs, that would be tragic. You have not taught them how to make wise decisions... you cannot because you yourself do not know how to, you depend on beliefs.
... and how do people ensure that they are making wise decisions? ahhhhh... that is another thing you need to know....
you obviously think you know a lot about me, or about how a typical christian think. unfortunately i am not a typical christian. at my home, we encourage our kids to watch the educational channel, and many times laugh at the way the church view the world.....
.... but enough of my family and my upbring style.... you now have shown a tendency to attack family members when you can't win..... it goes to show what a low class person you are.
again, andrew, where is the book? not a difficult question, andrew, even for you! is this a question that you cannot answer?
whatever i know about you, andrew, i know you don't have a book to sell! -
btw andrew, the way to circumvent the profane filter is NOT to put a fullstop in between letters like sh.it but place a bold, italic or underscore in between the letters..... like so: cock and shit.... this way is nicer so that there is no jarring full stop in between the letters.....
..... just so you know.
hopefully you too can learn something this morning.
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Andrew is cracking liao..... poor boy!!