Doomsday confirmed: The Kra Canal
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http://www.thaipro.com/thailand_00/109_kra_canal.htm
Time and again, over the last three centuries, the vision of a vital waterway linking the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea has surfaced - along with the dire economic threat that it will pose to Singapore. Now, the reality of a Kra Canal in Thailand being built is fast taking shape, following the collapse of a top-level US$2 billion ($3.51 billion) pipeline deal to move oil from Russia to China.
The failure of the deal, which would have carried up to 20 million tons of oil each year from the Russian republic of Sakha in Siberia, underscores the urgency energy-hungry China faces to ensure that Middle Eastern supplies reach its ports safely.
Thailand has much to gain from a Kra Canal project. Singapore has just as much to lose. The Kra Canal, which has the potential of diverting half the shipping tonnage now calling at Singapore ports up north to Thailand, will have an impact on the Republic’s economy which will be huge and permanent.
China badly needs imported oil to fuel its growth and its leaders are seriously looking at the Kra Canal as an alternative to the Straits of Malacca.
The Straits, which presents the shortest sea journey between Europe, Middle East and North Asia, is one of the most important waterways in the world, and most of China’s and Japan’s oil imports pass through it.
But the Straits is narrow: The Philip Channel near Singapore is only 2.5km wide, which creates a natural bottleneck with the potential for a collision, grounding or, after the Sept 11 attacks in the United States, sabotage by terrorists.
A large oil tanker sunk at the Philip Channel could well force vessels to take a long detour and hold up oil imports to China and Japan for weeks. As China is said to have as little as seven days of oil in reserve, it is clear why its leaders are anxious to help jump-start the Kra Canal project.
To cost at least US$20 billion, the project proposes to carve out a 50-km waterway across Thailand’s narrow Kra Isthmus. The canal will allow vessels plying the Europe-Middle East-North Asia route to bypass the Straits of Malacca and cut their journey by at least 1,000km.
Of course, any vessel bypassing the Straits will bypass Singapore too.
The Kra Canal could pose a bigger threat to Singapore than the loss of manufacturing jobs, the exodus of business to China and the devastation of Sars put together.
Singapore, despite the publicity it has reaped from its high-tech reputation, has always relied on its position as Asia’s top transshipment point for its prosperity.
Last month, the Beijing-controlled Economy magazine stated that it would be in China’s interest to invest billions of dollars in the Kra Canal to reduce its dependency on the Straits of Malacca “choke point”.
In a strange mix of politics and economics, it also explained that China had long been interested in the project, but held itself back so far because of its friendship with Singapore.
Now, however, China is less obliged to Singapore due to the latter’s attitude during the Sars (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) period, the magazine said. (At the height of the Sars outbreak, Singapore had criticised China for not disclosing its Sars cases earlier).
Many in Singapore have long dismissed the Kra Canal project as something that will remain a pipe dream. They could be wrong.
China, which recently overtook Japan as the second biggest oil consumer in the world (it uses about 5.36 million barrels a year, while Japan, the former number two, consumes around 5.34 million barrels), really has no choice but to go all out to ensure the safety of its oil imports. The US is the world’s largest consumer.
The timing is right: The biggest supporter of the project is former Prime Minister, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh who, since last October, has become Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand. Under him, the Thai government has sent at least three delegations to China to rope the Chinese into the Kra Canal project.
What is Singapore doing to counter this new threat? While some recent local commentaries have played down the threat of the Kra Canal, the leaders are not taking chances.
Recently, Singapore Telecom, the biggest company in Singapore which is part of the Temasek Group, took the unprecedented step of appointing an outsider, Thai businessman Chumpol NaLamlieng, as its chairman.
Mr Chumpol, 55, is head of Siam Cement, Thailand’s biggest company and one closely held by the Thai royal family. Mr Chimpol is highly influential and a good man to speak for Singapore.
Temasek Holdings executive director Ho Ching recently visited Beijing to donate a thermal scanner and to mend fences damaged by the Sars crisis. She was reportedly well-received by the Chinese.
Singapore, in other words, is now actively playing its Thai and China cards, in the hope perhaps that if the Kra Canal project does take off, it will at least be in a position to be involved in it. Given the circumstances, this is really all Singapore can do. -
Thailand will not build the KRA CANAL because it would effectively cut off the southern provinces- Muslim areas.......liable to break away from Thai central govt.....to form Islamic state of Patani.......so singapore can relax....yah? -
oh no!!!
oh dear!!!!!!
how ah?????? -
go thailand stay lorOriginally posted by FireIce:oh no!!!
oh dear!!!!!!
how ah??????
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your point of view is it a fact which determined kra canal is a no go?Originally posted by Dr Who:Thailand will not build the KRA CANAL because it would effectively cut off the southern provinces- Muslim areas.......liable to break away from Thai central govt.....to form Islamic state of Patani.......so singapore can relax....yah? -
Re: Kra Canal Is Indispensable To Counter New Military Threats To China
Author: Bajie Zhu
Date: 05-29-03 16:07
The Jewish hawks in Washington are stepping up the building of the axis consisting of Israel, India, and the U.S., to keep everyone else under their thumbs. As part of that grand design, the Pentagon just authorized the sale of the Phalcon early warning surveillance plane by Israel to India. Also expected to be authorized is the Arrow 2, Israel's version of TMD.
Now according to the Washington Times, Washington and New Dehli are plotting a grand scheme of bringing in other client states to support this axis militarily. An Asian version of NATO, no less.
For that reason alone, to balance the power, China should seriously explore a fast trak program to build the Kra Canal, and negotiate to own and operate the port facilities, guaranteeing access in time of war. The build up in Myanmar and Pakstani ports should accelerate, in order to keep the peace.
It is worth noting that India basically painted itself out of the picture, by being intolerant and exclusing many of the important Asian nations, such as Thailand, from their wet dream of "NAATO."
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/5/29/162032.shtml
WASHINGTON – Discreet talks were under way today between senior advisers to the Pentagon and to the Indian government on the prospects for a new security system for Asian-Pacific republics, a kind of Asian NATO, anchored by the United States and India.
The idea comes as the Pentagon is preparing major shifts in the deployment of its forces in the region, including the movement of U.S. Marines from bases in Okinawa, Japan, to Australia, and the use of new basing facilities in Singapore and the Philippines.
U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz left Washington today for a five-day trip to Japan, South Korea and Singapore, where this re-alignment of U.S forces in the Pacific will be high on his agenda.
The talks between Andrew Marshall, director of the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment and high-level Indian civilian advisers have been kept under wraps.
Militarily, the United States and India are already virtual allies and share a strong military relationship with Israel. The Bush administration earlier this month gave the go-ahead for Israel to sell India three Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control Systems aircraft, an advanced technology the Bush administration stopped Israel from selling to China.
Israel expects the Bush administration to approve its proposal to sell India the Arrow-2 anti-missile system, jointly developed by Israel and the United States. Between them, the Phalcon and the Arrow-2 deal could shift the balance of power in Asia, threatening to make India invulnerable to missile attacks from Pakistan or China.
American warships routinely refuel in Chennai and Mumbai. The U.S. and Indian defense intelligence agencies have instituted a formal relationship, the Indian and American Army Training and Doctrine Commands have begun a formal exchange on doctrinal matters, and Indian experts participated in a missile defense simulation in Colorado last year.
The Office of Net Assessment, the Pentagon's key think tank, conducted its first seminar in India last year with counterparts from India's Integrated Defense Staff, the connection that led to this week's discussions on an Asian version of NATO.
Professor Madhav Nalapat, an adviser to India's National Security Council and director of the School of Geopolitics at the Manipal Academy, India's largest private university, and one of the Indians involved in this week's talks with the Pentagon, has long argued in favor of a formal U.S.-led security system for the Asia-Pacific region. He suggests it should be called NAATO, for the North America-Asia Treaty Organization.
"What is needed is for Washington to take the initiative in creating an Asian NATO, that would defend democratic values and exclude countries with authoritarian structures or religious states," he wrote in a recent essay that attracted attention in Washington. "The test (for membership of such an alliance) has to be whether people of all faiths are given equal rights under the law, and whether they enjoy the democratic freedoms NAATO is intended to defend."
Nalapat's proposal suggests that the United States and Canada, India and Japan, Singapore and Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines and South Korea - along with pro-Western and reform-minded Arab nations such as Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar - are natural potential members of the new security system.
More controversially, Nalapat also sees Taiwan as a potential member, which is likely to heighten fears in Beijing that the new U.S.-Indian friendship is largely aimed at containing China. Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes is on record as saying that India's nuclear arsenal, although a deterrent, is aimed more at China than at Pakistan, and India is testing long-range Agni missiles that can reach Shanghai.
India's Chief of Naval Staff Adm. Madhavendra Singh expressed concern last week at the Chinese navy's "close interaction" with other Indian Ocean countries and said the navy was "closely monitoring" Chinese naval movement off the Pakistan coast.
India fears that China's modernization of Myanmar (Burmese) naval bases in the Bay of Bengal and its development of Pakistan's port of Gwadar represent a potential threat to India's vital sea communications.
http://www.asiawind.com/forums/read.php?f=3&i=111036&t=110726 -
if the project comes true, it will improve the world's sea communication as a whole...s'pore will have no choice but face the detrimental effects tt will come...nothing good can last forever...
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Can enjoy tom Yam soup everyday! yummy!Originally posted by Dead_Man_Inc:go thailand stay lor -
let's hope the Thais dont build it , what will happen to us ?Originally posted by khk:if the project comes true, it will improve the world's sea communication as a whole...s'pore will have no choice but face the detrimental effects tt will come...nothing good can last forever... -
We can all migrate to Thailand or do like MM Lee suggested join Malaysia. Either way, we must learn a new foreign language.
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ok, i think thai guys are cute
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You have no worries, you're immigrating, remember Harris_JeyaRaj?
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I got a feeling anyone cares about a tiny dot on the map?
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This looks suspicious.Originally posted by Harris_JeyaRaj:Author: Bajie Zhu -
the first part was the author's view ..the 2nd part is from a linkOriginally posted by Kuali Baba:This looks suspicious.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/5/29/162032.shtml -
comon u ppl e a bit serious man.it is no more about nessie or ufos...its about us...
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*Yawn*
Old news, heard it dunno how many donkey years ago
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It may be about us, but not for you. Or you're just pulling our leg and said it in gist?Originally posted by Harris_JeyaRaj:comon u ppl e a bit serious man.it is no more about nessie or ufos...its about us...
http://www.sgforums.com/?action=thread_display&thread_id=136129&page=1 -
Actually it was brought up in my geography lessons in secondary school sometime in the very early 90s.Originally posted by Zooish:*Yawn*
Old news, heard it dunno how many donkey years ago -
http://www.asiatoday.com.au/morefeatures.php?id=34
WILL THAILAND finally move ahead with construction of a Kra Canal — an idea first mooted in 1677, more than three centuries ago?
It is a tantalising question, and it haunts countries south of the Isthmus of Kra. Such a huge infrastructure project may not come to fruition in the immediate future, but the push to have the canal built has gained a momentum not previously experienced.
According to Singapore–based Jan Lee, Chief Strategist for the Swiss investment bank EFG, Beijing sees the project as of some national importance to its own economy — namely, the deployment of millions of workers who will likely be unemployed on completion of the massive Three Gorges dam project later this decade.
As Lee sees it, Washington’s interests lies in security, heightened since September 11, and the ongoing war against terrorism. Washington is said to be working on the prospect of establishing a permanent base in Asia, most probably in Sri Lanka. Journeys from Guam, where the US fleet is now based, to Sri Lanka would be greatly sped up.
The most recent, and seemingly comprehensive, feasibility study for a Kra canal was done by Japan’s Global Infrastructure Fund (GIF), which has the backing of such powerful groups as Keidanren, a body of top Japanese companies with a strong global focus.
Released for a specially-convened seminar held at Hat Yai, in Southern Thailand, in January 2000, the study estimated the cost to be at least US$20 billion. The plan is to carve out a 50 km waterway across Thailand’s narrow Kra Isthmus.
The canal would provide an alternate route to vessels plying the Europe-Middle East-North Asia route by bypassing the Straits of Malacca, reducing the journey by up to 1,000 km and saving shipping companies between US$37,000 and US$120,000 per voyage in labour and fuel costs.
The study suggested that the Kra Canal will benefit from an annual trade turnover estimated at US$280 billion as it straddles a region of 1.2 billion people within a radius of 2,400 km. It will catapult Thailand into a regional centre for commodities, currency trading, offshore financing, transshipment, and other support services.
The seminar was told that the project could be funded by floating a public company, with the Thai government to hold 51 per cent, the public 29 per cent and foreign investors 20 per cent in the form of 30-year debentures. As well, a paper published in the Bangkok Post on the Kra Canal in 2000 says that essential foreign technology should be exchanged for profit-sharing reductions in canal passage fees (perhaps 30-50 per cent for 10-20 years) rather than purchased outright.
Revenue would come from navigation fees, export tariffs, tourism, landbridge toll fees, income tax, land development, aviation and shipyard activities. It is envisaged that, by the third year of operation, the canal would generate Bt3 billion annually and as much as Bt100 billion baht upon completion after 10 years. “If only one quarter of the vessels passing through the Straits of Malacca use the Kra Canal, Thailand will gain annual revenue of tens of millions of baht,” said the GIF report. The project is said to be capable of creating about three million jobs during a 10-year construction period.
Jan Lee says it is precisely because of the need for jobs that China supports construction of the project. With growing unemployment as State-owned enterprises restructure, the Chinese leadership needs to create jobs for millions of Chinese each year.
Tens of thousands of workers are currently employed on the Three Gorges project, launched in 1993 and due to be completed by 2009, when 26 power-generating units with a combined capacity of 18.2 kw will be operational. The third phase of construction is expected to finish in 2006. Some Thai politicians are in favour of China’s involvement, believing that it would reduce the cost of construction.
Since September 11, 2001, the Bush Administration is said to have taken an interest in the project. Understandably, Washington is worried about the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Southeast Asia, and an alternate route through Buddhist Thailand appears a viable option.
Washington has secured a deal with Sri Lanka to refuel its Fifth Fleet at the deep-water port of Trincomalee, on the East Coast of Sri Lanka. Reports persist in South Asia that the US hopes to establish a permanent base in Trincomalee, which is strategically located on the busy East West shipping route stretching from the Suez Canal to the Malacca Straits.
Well-known Indian military correspondent Rahul Bedi wrote that Washington’s desire to establish a presence in Sri Lanka had been thwarted by New Delhi in the past. But post-September 11, as New Delhi and Washington have forged closer security ties, India’s opposition could be weakening.
Since September 11, India-US defence relations have extended to joint military manoeuvres and the inflow of US military hardware. As well, navies of the two nations have, since October 2001, jointly patrolled the Straits of Malacca. The US, according to Bedi, seeks a closer working relationship with India’s navy — and with it, an arrangement to patrol sea-lanes from the North Arabian Sea to the Malacca Straits off the Singapore coast.
Bedi wrote that, with US approval, India’s State-owned Indian Oil Corporation quietly clinched a 35-year deal to refurbish oil tanks at Trincomalee. The oil tanks have been abandoned since World War 2, when British warships used them for refuelling. Currently, Ceylon Petroleum Corp operates only 15 of Trincomalee’s 99 storage tanks, limiting sales to 25 tonnes per vessel. In future, supplies will be augmented to 12,250 kilolitres, making fuel cheaper and increasing the allowance to 200 tonnes per ship.
The US has begun training Sri Lankan soldiers to protect Trincomalee against terrorism. Bedi wrote that the US Navy has long been looking for access to a strategically-located South Asian port for its Fifth Fleet, established in 1996 for permanent deployment in the Indian Ocean to bolster the US Middle East force. He noted that the Fifth Fleet warships executed US missile strikes during the war in Afghanistan.
The US has repeatedly said it has “absolutely no intention” of setting up a military base in Trincomalee harbour or anywhere else in Sri Lanka. But a US embassy official in Colombo in May last year said the US had entered into an agreement with Sri Lanka to allow US military aircraft and ships to refuel and be serviced on the island.
According to commentators in Singapore, the reality of a Kra Canal being built is fast taking shape following the collapse of a top-level US$2 billion pipeline deal to move oil from Russia to China.
The pipeline would have carried up to 20 million tons of oil each year from Siberia to China, now the second-largest oil consumer in the world. Presently, the Straits of Malacca is the most important waterway in the world, and most of China’s and Japan’s oil imports pass through it. But the Straits has a growing problem with piracy. The Philip Channel near Singapore is only 12.5 km wide — a natural bottleneck with the potential of a collision, or worse, a terrorist attack.
These commentators say that if a large oil tanker sank in the Philip Channel, other vessels could be forced to take a long detour, holding up oil imports to China and Japan for weeks. China reportedly has just seven days of oil in reserve.
The concept of a canal has been resurrected in Thailand from time to time. It is one of those enduring ideas which has refused to fade away through the ages. Over the past 30 years, it has been mentioned intermittently by various Thai political leaders, who have shared a vision of a man-made waterway, which would lift the profile of the Kingdom.
The current Thai leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, is privately in favour of the concept, but the Thai King is believed to be firmly against it because it would split the Kingdom into two. In Thai culture, the King’s wishes will prevail — for now.
It is hard to tell the future, of course. Even in Washington, there could well be a change of Administration after next year, but sources in Singapore says the idea of a Kra Canal will survive with the US military.
Whether the Kra Canal comes about will depend on how long the concept is kept on the boil — until something happens to kick it off. It remains a far-fledged idea in today’s environment, but when there is a political will, there will be a way.
The revival of the proposal has unnerved countries south of the Kra Canal, in particularly Singapore, whose prized strategic position in global shipping would be considerably reduced. Already, the dynamics of economic activity, which have changed since the 1997-98 East Asian crisis, have clearly differentiated North and Southeast Asia. Construction of a Kra Canal would further deepen the North-South divide in East Asia.
From Asia Today International ASIA2004 Yearbook -
why not spend that US$20billion on the research of teleport technology??? why some ppl never think out of the box one???
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I am pretty sure the Kra Canal will go through. If you analyse the financial market in thailand, you can see the reason.
trade secret. go figure. -
Personnally, I dun think it will happen soon
1.) The trouble down south in Thailand
2.) Security. Right now, the straits is being police by 3 countries. When the canal is built, this responsibility is fully on the shoulder of 1 country. When things screwed up, that country has no one to blame than itself. No a good deal if you ask me.
3.) Building the canal means the oil now flows directly to east pacific. That means the whole oil refinery plant has to be relocated from sg. Do u think it will be a wise choice currently, considering most of the oil refinery has firmly rooted in sg.
4.) The canal only diverts partial traffic. There are other countries in this region u know:- Malaysia, Singapore, Austrialia, New Guniea, New Zealand, Indonesia, etc which dun depend on the canal. So it is still profitable to ship here.
5.) Think last year boxing day event. Wif the canal built and a similar event happening again. Will the diaster area be multiplied. Think of the ports now built along this canal. A Tsunami will have a devasting effect. The last time I checked. U can't predict or stop Tsunamis. So it is better off not building the canal.
6.) Sg is one of the kiasu-est country in the world. Dun think we will be so easily defeated by building one such canal.
The above is just my thinking nia -
Not only thailand, other countries are set to benefit from it too.....Originally posted by Deportivo:I am pretty sure the Kra Canal will go through. If you analyse the financial market in thailand, you can see the reason.
trade secret. go figure.