Gambling, like forex trading, never pays....
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thats a lot of monieOriginally posted by bryanw:maybe true. i know somebody who lost almost 80k in soccer and he is only 25.
poor guy
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It actually depends on how you play it in forex.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:That is what many people think... and I am not surprised that you think similarly...
The reality is different...
It is like, looking at the sky, you will see with your own eyes that the sun moving from the east to the west... every morning you will see the sun moving from the east to the west...
don't be like an unschooled kid, and think that the sun moves from the east to the west.... it is the earth that is rotating and not the sun moving from the east to the west, that you see the sun moving from the east to the west...
Similarly, you see the charts, you study the news, you do your analysis and you conclude that you can make money from forex trading... the reality is different... the reality is that you will end up losing all you money if you do not stop after losing a big amount of your money...
The only way for one to get reach is to gamble. We have to take risk in order to get rich.
If you depend solely on your monthly salary, you will not get rich. Even if you place your money in bank (fixed deposits), the interest is only 5% (if you are very lucky, most of the time is only 4% to 4.5%). Unless you are a movie star or a writer or those who earn lots of money (<$100k pa)
If you let the bank to manage your money (private banker), they are eventually going to make use of your money and invest it in bonds, stock, derivatives, forex etc. And they are going to charge you service fee.
If you know how to trade, why let the bank trade for you. If the bank lose in trading, you also lose your money, unless you get that guaranteed return policies.
And also, I agree that we must know when to stop loss. this is unfortunately the hardest for most traders. -
I didn't answer you previously because they are grossly stupid "questions".Originally posted by deathbait:i like how you link forex trading with gambling.
i mean, if i put two words in the same sentence, they gotta be linked, right?
Nevermind the broad defination of "gambling", or the fact that gambling outside a casino is mostly a break even game.
For example, your odds in a mahjong game without a house rake is breakeven if skill is equal.
Would you consider it gambling?
If there is a rake of a dollar, per session, and your skill is enough to make you a consistant 3 dollar winner per session, are you still gambling?
Andrew never likes to answer these types of questions because it actually goes into details of areas he claims an expertise in, but in reality, he comes up short in answers. So he will ignore this as usual, and try to bury it under tons of filler posts.
The money changers you see are a sort of forex trader. True, they take a commission, but end of the day, they are trading currencies. You want to explain to me how they make a living "gambling" and why it's bad?
kudos if you can point out my circular logic=)
it is, after all, much more elegant than the ones you've been sprouting.
Let me tell you why they are stupid:
You think that "odds" is everything in gambling.
You do not understand the difference between gambling at the casino, forex trading, and mahjong.
If you define gambling too broadly to include money changers... then might as well don't define and include everything... marriage is gambling, doing business is gambling, buying a house, buying a car is gambling...
You do not understand the essential similarities between casino gambling and forex, commodities futures, derivatives...
Why should I answer you grossly stupid questions? It will only lead to arguments that will prove how stupid you are only. I was trying to save you the embarrassment, but you, are like many of those that I have pwned time and again in this forum, too stupid to know how stupid you are....
I would have ignored this stupid post with your stupid questions if you did not challenge me by saying, "he claims an expertise in, but in reality, he comes up short in answers".
The reason, if you must know, why I "come up short in answers" to your questions is... you ask such blatantly stupid questions and yet you have no idea how stupid your questions are.
Let's take one of your question, mahjong, for example, why it is such a stupid question.
In mahjong, it is usually friends that gamble (unless in a mahjong association) and sometimes the friend that "opens" the table at his house, takes a cut.
While there is an element of luck, there are elements of skill involved in mahjong and poker.
You do not understand the "skill" in a mahjong game and the "skill" involved in a casino game, for example, and why the "skill" in casino games cannot be considered "skills"... while some of the "skills" involved in a mahjong game are considered skills and some "skills" in the mahjong game cannot be considered "skills".
It is too tedious to explain to a stupid person like you why some skills are "skills' and why some "so-called skills" are not. Go and find out this at least, before you attempt to challenge me or I will just expose you gross stupidity and you do not want that or do you?
I am actually a nice person and if you did not challenge me with grossly stupid and obnoxious statements like "he claims an expertise in, but in reality, he comes up short in answers", I would have just let your stupidity slide by unnoticed. -
If people ask genuine questions, seeking my advice and expertise, I will try to help them, but if people ask me questions to challenge me and they have no idea how stupid their questions are... when I am bored, I will pwned them....
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Another grossly stupid person that does not know how stupid he is.Originally posted by ultranova3:It actually depends on how you play it in forex.
The only way for one to get reach is to gamble. We have to take risk in order to get rich.
If you depend solely on your monthly salary, you will not get rich. Even if you place your money in bank (fixed deposits), the interest is only 5% (if you are very lucky, most of the time is only 4% to 4.5%). Unless you are a movie star or a writer or those who earn lots of money (<$100k pa)
If you let the bank to manage your money (private banker), they are eventually going to make use of your money and invest it in bonds, stock, derivatives, forex etc. And they are going to charge you service fee.
If you know how to trade, why let the bank trade for you. If the bank lose in trading, you also lose your money, unless you get that guaranteed return policies.
And also, I agree that we must know when to stop loss. this is unfortunately the hardest for most traders.
How are you going to get rich losing all your money gambling?
You have to take risks "to get rich" faster (not that you cannot get rich slow and in a less risky manner) but those are calculated risks that you take after taking all the essential elements and factors into consideration.
People cannot get rich gambling/losing all their money to the casino/forex trading... and that is just gross stupidity... and thinking that they are taking risks... -
I never bet soccer before until the last world cup.Originally posted by noahnoah:thats a lot of monie
poor guy
I bet $10 on England to win (first match) and the receipt said 1:.22
"What does this mean?" I asked an "expert" in soccer betting.
He said, "If England wins, you get 22 cents for every dollar to bet."
OMFG... this kind of "odds" and there are people that bet on soccer? Gross stupidity.
You throw away a couple of dollars to keep you interested in watching grown men kick the ball here and there (hahaha, I used to play rugby for the Singapore military, so don't argue with me about the "value of sports") .... but to bet hoping to "win" and then lose $50K to learn the lesson that you cannot win is just gross stupidity.
Better buy a book that explains clearly why you cannot win some "games" and what "games" you can win is so much less expensive and so much more profitable.
Can you imagine him winning say ten thousand investing his $50K and so you see, it is not just $50K that he lost. It is $50K and the potential from the profits that he could have made with the $50K. -
wait
just so we're clear
you don't think odds are what seperates a gamble from an investment?
you don't think skill matters in a casino?
you don't think skill matters in the stock market?
you don't think skill matters in forex?
odds ARE the only thing that defines an action as gambling. If your odds are worse than your expected value in return, and you're still deciding to enter, you're gambling.
But what if the odds are favorable to the point where it exceeds your expected returns?
I'll even give you an example.
I'll play a game of coin flips with you, paying you a dollar for everytime you win, and taking 50 cents for everytime you lose.
Will you play?
Is it a gamble?
What is the one overriding factor in you deciding it is favorable to play this game with me?
It's the odds, you moron.
Let's move back to the forex.
Let's assume a broker commision of X percent. You would thus expect that if you bought and sold blind with no leverage, your long term loss would be X multiplied by the number of transactions.
That is your expected value in that series of transaction, negative. Which is why buying and selling blind is considered gambling, because the odds give you a negative expected value, but you play anyway.
But what if you inject a little intelligence into the trade? If your manual input into playing the forex can give you enough expected value to offset X per trade, you're no longer gambling. You're investing. Much like the coin flip game i proposed, you can now see value in playing the forex, because mathematically in the long run, you're going to make money.
Of course ppl can lose alot of money even with positive expected returns. It's a theory called the risk of ruin. Basically, because you have finite capital and time, a really long losing streak(variance) can push you to the point of no return. And it's this fear that andrew is trying to take advantage of to sell his book. His philosophy is simple: If you don't play, you can't lose. He doesn't like it pointed out that you can't win either.
Yet, i'm sure he'll play the coin flip game with me. Because it's only fifty cents if he loses each time. He can endure the losing streak.
What if i made it a hundred thousand vs fifty thousand? He probably will still play because the odds i give him are so favorable.
What about 100,000 and 99,999?
Suddenly the expected returns drop, but it's still a positive expectancy of return. The risk of ruin is real here though, because a 20 loss streak will definately hurt.
What about 1.00 and 0.99?
Will andrew play?
End of the day, it's a simple question of risk analysis. Everything you do in life, you want to enter when it is an advantageous situation. But risk kicks in when you're in over your head. Which is why bankroll management is important. Andrew will have you believe that dipping your pool in the markets is a dangerous move. It's simply not true. You can't lose money if you consistantly move in when you have a positive expected return on the trade, and have a suffecient bankroll to take a losing streak.
Of course, being an ex-trader, andrew knows all this. It's just inconvenient to elaborate the concepts because they break down all his points, and boy does he need them to hold up if he's gonna sell his book(which btw, professes to talk about gambling and whatnot, but can't even get an accurate illustration of a roulette wheel on the cover).
The only things you never want to do in trading is going in blind, or investing too big a proportion of your total capital in a single trade. If you're not prone to either of the above, step in....the water's fine. Don't let andrew push you off with his nonsense. Trading is not always gambling. Never let someone who doesn't even know what gambling is tell you forex is gambling.
It's disgusting enough that andrew can claim he was a trader and has such ridiculous misunderstandings on how investments work. It's even worse when he tries to spread disinformation just to sell a book. -
Your knowledge is applaudable and thank you for your sharing of knowledge..
But,
Humility = 0 -
you don't think skill matters in a casino?
you don't think skill matters in the stock market?
you don't think skill matters in forex?
There is no such think as skills or systems to win in the all above, this is a negative progressive game. In the long run you still drop inside the hole and you will never come out again.
In the above stuff, you will never be able to win unless u cheats -
and as a follow up, i'll like to talk about odds in the world cup bet that andrew made.
Sports bets.
Everyone likes to bet a little when they're watching sports, it spices up the game.
Andrew talked about 1:0.22 odds.
Pityful, you might say. But andrew never revealed the teams.
Investing 50k in 1:0.22 odds may seem insane, and andrew would definately like to make you think so. But is it really?
22 cents to your dollar is a 22 percent return on investment. How many of you make that on a consistant basis in your investments? Andrew certainly doesn't. He's more or less admitted it by refusing to answer my previous questions.
But what defines it as a good or bad investment?
1:0.22 is break even odds if your team will win roughly four out of five times. That is what really determines whether it's a good investment. How often do you think your team will win?
What if your team was playing against handicapped kids in a game of soccer? Would you put 50k on those odds? I'll ask how much more i can heap onto THAT bet, i'll tell you.
But that's in the extreme case, where you expect to win almost 100% of the time.
What if england was playing against NUS soccer team, and i gave you 1:0.22 odds? How often do you expect NUS to win? once in twenty? Buying at those odds certainly seem good.
What if england was playing against itself?(computer games come to mind.)You'll need 1:1 odds to break even. 1:0.22 would indeed be insane.
So you see, as always, andrew likes to point out a few details while leaving the most important points to a scenario out of his posts to justify his arguments. If you aren't already sick of it, you should be.
And i'm still hoping to see andrew explain why his playing rugby for the military once has any bearing on the value of sports. I can't resist the obvious barb, sorry
id the value go down BECAUSE you were part of it? -
cheat? Maybe in the casino.Originally posted by Mitell:you don't think skill matters in a casino?
you don't think skill matters in the stock market?
you don't think skill matters in forex?
There is no such think as skills or systems to win in the all above, this is a negative progressive game. In the long run you still drop inside the hole and you will never come out again.
In the above stuff, you will never be able to win unless u cheats
But if you think the consistent winners in the markets are either cheating or super lucky, you're just plain wrong.
As for skill in a casino, blackjack or poker comes to mind(no, counting cards is not cheating).
In blackjack, if you play like the typical "uncle", the casino has about a 5% commission. Play like someone who has read a book or two on blackjack odds and plays, and the commission goes down to about 1.2%.
Count cards, and suddenly the commision is down all the way to -0.5%. That's an expected GAIN. That's why casinos don't like GOOD card counters. Oh they love the bad ones, because it doesn't take too much of a bad count to sway that -0.5% up to positive again.
So really, there are skill games in casinos too. When your skill is suffecient to offset the "commission" taken from the host, it can be a good investment too. -
Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:
It doesn't really matter who's orbiting who, when the schoolkid is betting on whether the sun will rise from the east and set in the west.
It is like, looking at the sky, you will see with your own eyes that the sun moving from the east to the west... every morning you will see the sun moving from the east to the west...
don't be like an unschooled kid, and think that the sun moves from the east to the west.... it is the earth that is rotating and not the sun moving from the east to the west, that you see the sun moving from the east to the west...
Similarly, you see the charts, you study the news, you do your analysis and you conclude that you can make money from forex trading... the reality is different... the reality is that you will end up losing all you money if you do not stop after losing a big amount of your money...
If you're gonna start analogies, finish them. Oh right, completion of the analogy would have stepped all over your points. My bad. -
An extremely smart answer....Originally posted by Mitell:you don't think skill matters in a casino?
you don't think skill matters in the stock market?
you don't think skill matters in forex?
There is no such think as skills or systems to win in the all above, this is a negative progressive game. In the long run you still drop inside the hole and you will never come out again.
In the above stuff, you will never be able to win unless u cheats
There is, but, what you call money management... to ensure that you "drop inside the hole and you will never come out again" but not buried six feet underground... -
yes, this one i agree, game like blackjack and poker tournament, the casinos has not much edge on their side. seem like u are a pro gambler.
good luck
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lolOriginally posted by AndrewPKYap:An extremely smart answer....
There is, but, what you call money management... to ensure that you "drop inside the hole and you will never come out again" but not buried six feet underground...
add in emotional management also -
1st of all the casino never plays poker with you... the type where you depend on skills... to win... the "poker" that you play at the casino are not the type of poker where skills play a part... but in all poker, luck is still involved... and in all matters where luck plays a part... you lose when you are a "small" fry.... playing against a big toad...Originally posted by Mitell:yes, this one i agree, game like blackjack and poker tournament, the casinos has not much edge on their side. seem like u are a pro gambler.
good luck
The poker tournaments that you hear about are gamblers playing against gamblers (the tournament itself might be organized by the casino) and not gamblers against the casino... the casino is not that stupid... not as stupid as the gamblers, to play games they do not have an overwhelming chance of winning...
In blackjack, when you play against other gamblers, there is skill involved but not blackjack at the casino.
There, the casino change the black jack rules to their advantage and I suspect some of the unregulated Indonesian casinos (maybe Genting also) cheat at blackjack. You seem to know more than what a lot of people shooting off their mouths here know. -
if you felt that was a good post, i dare you to tell me exactly why you were trading with someone else's money on the MARKET, when your personal belief was that skill did not matter, and it was a long term losing gamble.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:An extremely smart answer....
There is, but, what you call money management... to ensure that you "drop inside the hole and you will never come out again" but not buried six feet underground...
Go on, tell me. I'm interested. Are you lying now, or deliberately cheating your investors back then? -
That is the killer.... nice to know someone with many gambling insights...Originally posted by Mitell:lol
add in emotional management also -
You reveal your ignorance with every reply, and i can do no more than to move in on your weaknesses.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:1st of all the casino never plays poker with you... the type where you depend on skills... to win... the "poker" that you play at the casino are not the type of poker where skills play a part... but in all poker, luck is still involved... and in all matters where luck plays a part... you lose when you are a "small" fry.... playing against a big toad...
The poker tournaments that you hear about are gamblers playing against gamblers (the tournament itself might be organized by the casino) and not gamblers against the casino... the casino is not that stupid... not as stupid as the gamblers, to play games they do not have an overwhelming chance of winning...
In blackjack, when you play against other gamblers, there is skill involved but not blackjack at the casino.
There, the casino change the black jack rules to their advantage and I suspect some of the unregulated Indonesian casinos (maybe Genting also) cheat at blackjack. You seem to know more than what a lot of people shooting off their mouths here know.
Your knowledge of casinos seem to extend as far as genting(cute, considering you consider yourself an expert on gambling). Why do you care if the casino makes money if, by your own words, you're not playing with the casino?
really, it's sick how silly your posts are.
Let me dissect it now:
1) You lose in poker in the long run because you are a losing player(read: lousy), not because you have less money. In fact, it is advantageous to buy in with a small amount, compared to being the deep stack of the table.
2) Please, oh please play poker with me so i can show you why luck is irrelevant in the long run. While we're at it, bring your entire life savings, and i'll bring just a few bucks, just so you can prove to me how your big toad will gobble me up.
3) Casinos NEVER have an overwhelming chance of winning the random patron. The most profitable game in the casino, known as the big wheel, has only a 7.7 percent commision. Not Overwhelming. Also, look up "overwhelming" in the dictionary.
4) As before, poker is not played against the house, so it matters not if the house is making money. The "rake" is paid to the house for hosting the game and paying the dealers. You will indeed make money at the poker table against other less savvy opponents.
5) Skill required in blackjack is the greatest when playing in a multi decked, non constant shuffled casino game. When you're playing our local version of blackjack, the only skill required to win(and there is only one way to win) is of diplomacy: If you're not the banker, you lose. It's a simple game.
6) The advantage the bankers have in our home blackjack games are(finally, here's how you use the word) overwhelming. So overwhelming in fact that they almost always win, even in the short run. Stories of bankers losing alot of money are myths perpetuated to scare ppl from being the banker. If you're still in doubt, chinese new year is coming up. Be the banker for once and play it seriously(as in, out for the cash). You'll see what i mean.
7) Casinos will never cheat you of your money. That's just silly. Consider the case of the online poker site, absolutepoker. Casinos make tons of money from the public without needing to cheat. To be caught cheating is to kill the cash cow, to behead the golden goose. Absolute poker was caught cheating, and now it's being boycotted. Chances are, it lost more in a week's income than they won by cheating.
Emoticons. really?
With your appalling lack of knowledge in gambling, are you really qualified to write a book on it? -
Some grossly stupid people use what they know to argue without realizing that they do not know and did not consider many essential things...
... just like a stupid kid that keeps on arguing with people because they see with their own eyes the sun moving across the sky... without realizing that they are grossly stupid because they do not know, understand and considered things like the earth spinning on its own axis and without knowing things like the earth orbiting the sun... how grossly stupid.... -
... and if you are grossly stupid, you will believe their testimony that the sun moves across the sky...
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sidestepping my questions again?
I may not know what causes it, but i'll bet everytime that lightning is followed by thunder.(actually i do, but i'm just making a point)
You don't have to know what causes Event A, if you are know that Event A always follows Event B, and Event B just occured. You don't have to know WHY it happens. Just gotta know it's going to happen.
For example(let's go back to blackjack)
you're going 1 on 1 with the dealer in this casino. The dealer accidentally shows you the top card which is an ace. So you know you're going to be dealt an ace. Does it matter to you why the ace is the next card?
Seriously, sun orbiting around earth or vice versa, that has no effect on the schoolboy who manages to get some idiot to accept a bet that the sun rises from the east, and travels to the west where it sets. -
I have already more or less proven that you are unfamiliar with the games you speak of, and are in no position to argue with me regarding the common gambling games, or the skill required to offset the table odds. I have also proven that you have absolutely no knowledge of odds when it comes to blackjack. If you wish to go into how mahjong requires skill and calculation of odds, i will gladly comply as well.Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:I didn't answer you previously because they are grossly stupid "questions".
Let me tell you why they are stupid:
You think that "odds" is everything in gambling.
You do not understand the difference between gambling at the casino, forex trading, and mahjong.
If you define gambling too broadly to include money changers... then might as well don't define and include everything... marriage is gambling, doing business is gambling, buying a house, buying a car is gambling...
You do not understand the essential similarities between casino gambling and forex, commodities futures, derivatives...
Why should I answer you grossly stupid questions? It will only lead to arguments that will prove how stupid you are only. I was trying to save you the embarrassment, but you, are like many of those that I have pwned time and again in this forum, too stupid to know how stupid you are....
I would have ignored this stupid post with your stupid questions if you did not challenge me by saying, "he claims an expertise in, but in reality, he comes up short in answers".
The reason, if you must know, why I "come up short in answers" to your questions is... you ask such blatantly stupid questions and yet you have no idea how stupid your questions are.
Let's take one of your question, mahjong, for example, why it is such a stupid question.
In mahjong, it is usually friends that gamble (unless in a mahjong association) and sometimes the friend that "opens" the table at his house, takes a cut.
While there is an element of luck, there are elements of skill involved in mahjong and poker.
You do not understand the "skill" in a mahjong game and the "skill" involved in a casino game, for example, and why the "skill" in casino games cannot be considered "skills"... while some of the "skills" involved in a mahjong game are considered skills and some "skills" in the mahjong game cannot be considered "skills".
It is too tedious to explain to a stupid person like you why some skills are "skills' and why some "so-called skills" are not. Go and find out this at least, before you attempt to challenge me or I will just expose you gross stupidity and you do not want that or do you?
I am actually a nice person and if you did not challenge me with grossly stupid and obnoxious statements like "he claims an expertise in, but in reality, he comes up short in answers", I would have just let your stupidity slide by unnoticed.
You have called me stupid numerous times over the past few months, but continually refuse to answer my questions. I will assume you truly are a kindly old man who wishes to spare my feelings, and not some desperate conman spreading fear for the sake of it, although i'm getting really mixed signals with all the "stupid" terms flying around in this post.
So i await your answers to my other questions. Don't spare my feelings. Do reveal my gross stupidity so that ppl can learn from my mistakes. -
like I said, when I am bored I will pawned stupid people.... and this is such profound stupidity it is an opportunity not to be missed...Originally posted by deathbait:sidestepping my questions again?
I may not know what causes it, but i'll bet everytime that lightning is followed by thunder.(actually i do, but i'm just making a point)
You don't have to know what causes Event A, if you are know that Event A always follows Event B, and Event B just occured. You don't have to know WHY it happens. Just gotta know it's going to happen.
For example(let's go back to blackjack)
you're going 1 on 1 with the dealer in this casino. The dealer accidentally shows you the top card which is an ace. So you know you're going to be dealt an ace. Does it matter to you why the ace is the next card?
Seriously, sun orbiting around earth or vice versa, that has no effect on the schoolboy who manages to get some idiot to accept a bet that the sun rises from the east, and travels to the west where it sets.
... and you probably think that your life started when your mother gave birth to you when your life could have very well started from dog sh!t
Let me explain. The dog sh!ts near a papaya tree... and the papaya tree used the components of the dog sh!t to produce a papaya and your mother ate the papaya and the papaya that has components of dog sh!t in it, got used by your mother's body to produce that egg that became you....
You see? Your life started from dog sh!t, case proven...
... a grossly stupid person that does not know that there are many things he is ignorant of.... -
the jury's still out on the exact time when life begins, but...Originally posted by AndrewPKYap:like I said, when I am bored I will pawned stupid people.... and this is such profound stupidity it is an opportunity not to be missed...
... and you probably think that your life started when your mother gave birth to you when your life could have very well started from dog sh!t
Let me explain. The dog sh!ts near a papaya tree... and the papaya tree used the components of the dog sh!t to produce a papaya and your mother ate the papaya and the papaya that has components of dog sh!t in it, got used by your mother's body to produce that egg that became you....
You see? Your life started from dog sh!t, case proven...
... a grossly stupid person that does not know that there are many things he is ignorant of....
Very compelling argument! Not defensive at all! Very mature indeed! Superb usage of emoticons in attempt to hide the vehement nature of post! Absolute nonsensical usage of modern internet lingo! Not at all informative!
Yup, this post definately sounded like it came from the great mind that has authored an informative book and is a certified expert on the world's most uncertain financial instruments.