Originally posted by Shotgun:
Glad to see such replies.
I am mounting my scenario on some analysis based of Stratfor. The political arena as such, is going into a rather ANTI-US stance. Further analysis also indicates that China And the Russian Federation do have some underlying relationship and it would be no surprise if there was a strategic alliance and cooperation between the 2 largest countries in Asia. Of course, The United States Government is trying to dissuade the Russian Federation from such a situation and has even proposed to procure the S-300 system for use in their Theater ballistic missile defense system. Even though the United States has already developed a superior system. Of course, the Russians Rejected the deal, showing signs that it would prefer to cooperate with China, their largest client in military hardware.
This is shift the balance of power seriously, if Russia even lends its navy to China to hold of Japan n Korean Naval forces. China is also along its way in producing a blue water navy. We all know that they building a new aircraft carriers with the capability to operate the Navalised flanker. The Flanker, a russian made combat aircraft which even western air force analysts would show respect to. Already PRC operates a large fleet of submarines, perhaps the largest in the region, old but derelict Tangos and kilos. Definitely it would procure or produce more submarine forces which may include VictorIII, Akula and even the latest Russian AkulaII.
Should the PRC develop into such a superpower, which I already consider an inevitable. It will Dramatically shift the balance of power in the region. And I ask again, who in the region and resist such a large and powerful military force? Can the United States sustain such warfare in the pacific? Singapore Would be hard pressed to hold off its own. And the possibility of Malaysia and Indonesia, already demonstrating anti-western stance being involved in perhaps the largest Opposition against the United States is very high. Even IF war does not break out, Singapore will face significant pressure from its neighbouring countries for allowing the United States use of facilities in the region. Currently, Singapore has wisely not adapted a pro-western stance, making minor disagreements with the western allies. This however has not kept it from being refered to as western lackeys by "SOME" neighbouring countries.
In conclusion, my personal opinion, Singapore is being forced to maintain a strong Armed Force, capable of defeating it regional hostile nations decisively for it to survive in a highly plausible Global Conflict. But it also means, that both you and I are living in Ground Zero.
i think we need to break the above down to more bite size chunks, considering them altogether will be very complex.
First: the relationship between the superpowers. At this point of time, america is the superpower of the superpower, this forced russia and china to join together to counterbalance their common threat. the threat of america does not arise from its idealogical or religious or even political influence. IT is simply the threat posed by the powerful US military. the omni-power status of the US army forced nations which are weaker to bridge their differences and come together for the sake of common security, in simplistic terms, out of fear of US military power. The rising US power and the diminishing threat posed by former warsaw nations including USSR led to the NATO powers to reconsidered the need to be align to USA, as can be exemplified by the EU in attempting to form a pan EU nation military force while conveniently leaving USA out of the picture. EVEN Japan and some other former strong US allies has begin to move their position from Pro-USA to neutral on the US side.
The USA obviously isnt foolish nor blind to this situation, the continuous lost in goodwill and tolerance towards americans presence since the end of the cold war has led to realization that US of A cannot maintain its dominance unless it can keeps its former allies close to USA.
BUT such a move will be difficult in the absence of a common threat. IT is far easier to tell the NATO nations the danger of a warsaw pact army swarming every western cities then trying to convince the NATO nations that CHINA which is 20,000 miles away on another continents would send tens if not hundreds of millions of soldier to attack europe across the middleeast or across central asia.
BUT...in time... CHINA will become a superpower, but even if china becomes the new superpower of the superpower, it is doubtful that china could go on an all out war against the whole world, such a move is stupid and by all measure, lacks wisdom. Continuous war and endless conflicts would only result in national losses and eventually weakens a nations military and economic power. This is the very reason why we dont see USA getting involve in every damn war around the world.
Furthermore, an aggressive China would ultimately forced others of lesser powers to align themselves with USA out of fear and desire for common security, exactly what USA wanted all along by clamoring about the rising power of china. Russia since the cold war have view China with a suspicious eye, even now it still does, when CHINA become omni powerful, russia may have to side with america to maintain balance of power and security just as it now sides china when USA is omni power.
Singapore govt, forsees this rise in CHINA as inevitable, singapore govt also forsees the realignment of weaker nations towards USA in the future when CHINA becomes the new supersuperpower. thus singapore govt decided that since such an event is inevitable, it makes good sense to get into america's good book now by showing our willingness to stand by america just when america is loosing friends all over the globe.
Next; it is doubtful that Russian navy can hold off korean and japanese navy, and it is even more doubtful that russia would get involved in a war of such a magnitude in view of its dilapitated economy and a navy that doesnt even have the funds to buy fuel.
Lastly on singapore, Singapore's greatest threat does not come from the outside, it comes from the inside. the problem of ever rising cost of living, the falling birth rate, the greater divided in the haves and have nots and the rising dissent against the govt urge to do more and more and more for less and less and less. the bad management of our nations human resources and lack of compassion for the underachievers would finished singapore first way before the first malaysian, indonesian or chinese troops land on singapore. the lost in social and national cohesion would see the singapore flag end up in the toilet before anything else.